PREDICTION: Microsoft will lose hard on this generation.

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jdelrio22

Member
Feb 14, 2006
172
0
0
I look forward to the Xbox one.

Sony looked amazing in their reveal but now that more details have come out, the two are really close.

If anything it's 100 extra for a camera vs no camera.
 

KaOTiK

Lifer
Feb 5, 2001
10,877
8
81
I look forward to the Xbox one.

Sony looked amazing in their reveal but now that more details have come out, the two are really close.

If anything it's 100 extra for a camera vs no camera.

So what more details came out that made them not look as good?
 

Dominato3r

Diamond Member
Aug 15, 2008
5,114
1
0
I think the new Xbox has a lot of negatives, but I have an extremely hard time believing that a possible outage of Microsoft's network on the scale of PSN is even possible. I mean they rival Google on scale (I think). That's just one that's really hard for me to believe, sorry.
 

5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
5,559
0
71
www.techinferno.com
Sony will have the same used game restrictions as Microsoft since they're leaving it up to the publishers to decide. While it's fashionable to hate on Microsoft, it's the publisher's who have pushed for this because they always whined about not making money on used games. I guess they think they deserved to be paid twice for a single product.
 

badb0y

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2010
4,015
30
91
Geoff Keighley had an interview with Don Mattrick (recorded pre conference) - here are some excerpts:


Keighley:"Did you know or did you anticipate the way the people would push back?"
Mattrick:"Absolutely - it's a super passionate community of people... till you use it [Xbox One] it's really hard to understand what all the advantages are."
________________________________________________________

Mattrick: "Xbox has been created by gamers for gamers."
________________________________________________________

Mattrick: "Fortunately we have a product for people who aren't able to get some form of connectivity, it's called xbox 360"
________________________________________________________

Mattrick: "The avarage internet connection is working the majority of the day - people are imagining that it isn't... It's change. There was a point in time when people would say all i want my phone to do is make a phonecall."

I don't even....

Especially the bolded part

Dat arrogance.....reminds me of Sony 2005/2006
 

Dominato3r

Diamond Member
Aug 15, 2008
5,114
1
0
Sony will have the same used game restrictions as Microsoft since they're leaving it up to the publishers to decide. While it's fashionable to hate on Microsoft, it's the publisher's who have pushed for this because they always whined about not making money on used games. I guess they think they deserved to be paid twice for a single product.

I think the biggest thing here is that the PS4 is offering a choice. Publisher push or not.
 

KaOTiK

Lifer
Feb 5, 2001
10,877
8
81
Sony will have the same used game restrictions as Microsoft since they're leaving it up to the publishers to decide. While it's fashionable to hate on Microsoft, it's the publisher's who have pushed for this because they always whined about not making money on used games. I guess they think they deserved to be paid twice for a single product.

Maybe you should read a bit, this has been covered so many damn times already.


http://www.destructoid.com/did-sony-confirm-drm-on-ps4-after-all-not-quite--256052.phtml


Update: Sony has outright confirmed my initial interpretation. As reported by GameFront, Sony has stated that Tretton's use of the term "DRM" referred only to playing used games online. Essentially, they're talking about letting publishers use online passes, and no other kind of restrictions.

The used game restrictions on the PS4 are EXACTLY the same as they are RIGHT NOW on the PS360

MS has built the infrastructure and designed the X1 with their DRM systems

Sony has not done a damn thing.
 

Palvaran

Member
Apr 13, 2002
86
0
66
I think I read a paper that listed the XBox One as selling 1 billion consoles by end of life. If they hit those kinds of numbers, they will undoubtedly be the winner. If that notice holds true, then the real question is how they are going to attain that.

If memory serves, I believe they were planning on partnering up with the cable companies who allegedly have approximately 800 million cables boxes in the wild. If they attain even a large portion of that number, they will have a massive hit on their hands. Let's not forget that Microsoft has wanted market penetration in consumer homes even back with the WebTV days. Anyone remember that device?
 

KaOTiK

Lifer
Feb 5, 2001
10,877
8
81
I think I read a paper that listed the XBox One as selling 1 billion consoles by end of life. If they hit those kinds of numbers, they will undoubtedly be the winner. If that notice holds true, then the real question is how they are going to attain that.

If memory serves, I believe they were planning on partnering up with the cable companies who allegedly have approximately 800 million cables boxes in the wild. If they attain even a large portion of that number, they will have a massive hit on their hands. Let's not forget that Microsoft has wanted market penetration in consumer homes even back with the WebTV days. Anyone remember that device?

The article/paper was for the 360+X1 combined and the sales projected/hoped for are 600m to 1b
 

Palvaran

Member
Apr 13, 2002
86
0
66
It is a big if, but it is a scarry prospect and a possibility to achieve. If Microsoft has figured out how to negotiate with cable providers to subsidize the boxes then they could potentially achieve those numbers. I don't know why any consumer would want to pay more for a closed device, but if cable companies pass that burden on by renting out cable equipment as they do now, then consumers will never even notice in the first place.

I own a PS1/PS3 and have never owned an XBox. I figure what's the point when you can just build a custom PC rig, but I concede that is possible that Microsoft could still win if they go that route.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
I still don't know what to think. The arrogance of MS at this point is just laughable...but then I come here and see people still saying things like, "It doesn't affect me" and "Sony will do the same thing", and people who hate everything about it, but willing to drop $700 to play 1 game, etc etc and you realize, they are banking on the uninformed lazy adhd crowd.
 

colonelciller

Senior member
Sep 29, 2012
915
0
0
the problems microsoft is having has nothing to do with bad PR

Xbone's problems stem purely from idiotic (24hour check in, stupid DRM, mrket-killing 2nd-hand sales restrictions... marbles in the mouth stallingregarding rentals which should have been a simple answer "yes" ) and orwellian (spy camera aimed at your couch - the NSA loves it) design decisions by microsoft... even great PR cannot cure stupid.

the spy camera + microphone and the govt backdoor (similar to the nsa backdoor for your iphone camera, computer camera, etc) is just the icing on the cakr that establishes anyone who buys this spy device as a total imbecile.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
Mattrick: "Fortunately we have a product for people who aren't able to get some form of connectivity, it's called xbox 360"
HAHAHA

Now, regarding NSA spy device it sounds all very conspiracy theory, but I expect there is a way for MS to remotely turn on the camera, even if 99.9999999999% of the time it's only on if the user is clearly aware of it. If it is possible for them to remotely turn it on I fail to see it as particularly creative in light of current events that if you were being specifically targeted by NSA/FBI that they wouldn't go to MS to ask; if they had your IP at least to check. It certainly won't be a 24/7 monitoring of your living room or anything.
 

PrincessFrosty

Platinum Member
Feb 13, 2008
2,301
68
91
www.frostyhacks.blogspot.com
1. A DDoS attack on the scale it would require to shut down Azure (which is what MS is using for Live as well) is unthinkable. Azure does not go down. That is MS's business model. A DDoS can't take down Google either. You're better off worrying about the NSA tracking your game play.

We're talking about a system that is already going to be spending an enormous amount of resources to constantly verify every XBone in use, as well as all the other cloud services they're offering.

Sure if you took that archtecture and it wasn't in use at the time, and you tried to DDOS it, it would take a huge botnet, but to take it down while it's actually in use by tens of millions of gamers around the world...I think it's do-able to cause major outages.

We saw what happened to Ubisofts online DRM that suffered complete outage at the hands of a botnet, some botnets are pretty big consisting of millions of computers at peak.
 

dpodblood

Diamond Member
May 20, 2010
4,020
1
81
I'm not suggesting that the ONE is going to fail by any means, and in the long run it is good to have at least 2 major players in the market place. But there is a reason I think the PS4 will be more successful this generation, and I will counter your arguments below.

I feel most of your arguments are weak. The only thing that might prevent Microsoft from penetrating the mainstream market is the price tag. If the XboX One is sold out this Christmas season, I see the One as surpassing the PS4 two years from now simply because it's advertised as a machine that can do more than the PS4. When Best Buy and other stores put up the One and PS4 up for display, the One will have a bigger crowd around the machine simply because people will be dancing and using voice commands to play while the PS4 will have people holding controllers. The Xbox One will practically sell itself to the mainstream market just by displaying what it can do.

This argument is weak because the XboX One is not advertising itself as a replacement for a tablet or smartphone. It's being advertised as a hub to use in conjunction with your smart devices, by the way of Smartglass.

This argument is weak because "Pretty Neat" functionality is what sells iphones, ipads, Samsung phones, the Wii, and other devices to the mainstream market. Being unique and innovative sells products. We know this already.

I own an iPad, and a Wii and I can tell you I didn't buy either of them for the "pretty neat functionality." I bought an iPad because I wanted a machine I could browse the web, show off high res photos, and watch video's on the go. Not because of some gimmicky reasons like gestures. I bought a Wii because there are a good amount of party games my friends and I can play, and a decent amount of core games as well. There's no one gimmick that convinced me to drop $300-$500 on these devices. Most people buy things for practical reasons, and not just gimmicks unless they have more money than sense.

Pinch to Zoom on phones is the same thing as Grab and Zoom on the One, which is why it seems to me that the mainstream market is exactly what they are targeting. Your argument that the ipad and tablet has taken a lot away from the consoles would also hurt PS4 sales so it really doesn't fit in the PS4 vs XboX one debate. XboX one is trying to position itself as a machine to work along side those devices, creating it's own unique market.

It's trying to create it's own unique market, but there is no evidence yet to convince me that people have a strong desire to have a device like that in their living room. Sure for a small niche of people, but we sure aren't seeing the "OMG I need that now" reaction to the one from the general public like we did with the iPad and the iPhone. MS simply doesn't have the cult following Apple does even if they seem to believe they do.

Steam games are cheap because they sell a lot of old games. New releases are always full price. Is there any reason to believe that Microsoft wouldn't sell cross platform old games for the same price as Steam? Green Man sells old cross platform games just as cheap as steam, why wouldn't Microsoft do the same? There's a lot of bad publicity working against Microsoft's DRM right now but it'll pass and people will realize that they really don't care, just like they don't care that Steam games can't be resold.

My guess is that you either aren't a PC gamer or you're just being willfully ignorant on the topic here. We routinely get new, and relatively new games with deep deep discounts. Lets see here are a few examples:

-Sleeping Dogs - Bought for $32 at launch.
-Tomb Raider - Bought for $33 at launch
-Bioshock Infinite - Payed full price, received Xcom, Sonic All Star Racing, and The Darkness 2 for free.
-Hitman Absolution - $7.50 < 6 months after launch.
-Max Payne 3 - $15 < 6 months after launch.
-Grid 2 - $35 at launch.

Not to mention numerous games less than 2 years old selling for 75-90% off.
 

dpodblood

Diamond Member
May 20, 2010
4,020
1
81

Nice to see that this information is being made available in mainstream media. My biggest problem is that MS, and specifically Mattrick cannot explain how a 24 hour check in is going to benefit the consumer. He keeps trying to brush it off as basically arguing that in this day in age it makes sense to have your device constantly connected to the internet. Sure that's all good and well, but a 24 hour check is nothing more than a DRM which doesn't benefit the consumer in any way.
 

purbeast0

No Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
52,930
5,802
126
Nice to see that this information is being made available in mainstream media. My biggest problem is that MS, and specifically Mattrick cannot explain how a 24 hour check in is going to benefit the consumer. He keeps trying to brush it off as basically arguing that in this day in age it makes sense to have your device constantly connected to the internet. Sure that's all good and well, but a 24 hour check is nothing more than a DRM which doesn't benefit the consumer in any way.

that is one of the questions i want answered as well - how does the 24 hour stuff as well as the drm benefit us as the end user? i also want them to tell us why the extra $100 we are paying for kinect is worth it. they showed not 1 kinect game in their conference.

great article and i'm glad it is getting mainstream as well. hopefully this will make ms change their tune. but after that "no internet? GET XBOX 360!" comment i doubt anything will happen.
 

dpodblood

Diamond Member
May 20, 2010
4,020
1
81
that is one of the questions i want answered as well - how does the 24 hour stuff as well as the drm benefit us as the end user? i also want them to tell us why the extra $100 we are paying for kinect is worth it. they showed not 1 kinect game in their conference.

great article and i'm glad it is getting mainstream as well. hopefully this will make ms change their tune. but after that "no internet? GET XBOX 360!" comment i doubt anything will happen.

It actually would have made more sense if it required an internet connection 100% of the time. At least they could have spun that in a way that benefited the consumer. They could have explained that:

1) They understand that Xbox ONE will not be a product for everyone, but they hope to see the audience expand as broadband internet becomes widely available.

2) Games will be designed specifically around their cloud infrastructure offloading AI and other processing.

3) Your saved games and game library are stored in the cloud and can be accessed from any ONE you're signed into.

4) You can deactivate your game license and sell the physical disk to anyone you want at retail or personally (there could be an online portal where people could verify the status of the license rather than restricting it to "participating retailers.")

5) Day 1 digital downloads will sell for $10 less than retail versions.

Soooo many things they could have done to use the "always on" nature of the system to their advantage instead. But instead they gave us a nanny state DRM, and a used game policy so confusing and convoluted nobody can even figure out how it works. Then then bring out their big executives on stage to blow smoke up our asses and basically say "hey this is great for everyone!"
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
We're talking about a system that is already going to be spending an enormous amount of resources to constantly verify every XBone in use, as well as all the other cloud services they're offering.

Sure if you took that archtecture and it wasn't in use at the time, and you tried to DDOS it, it would take a huge botnet, but to take it down while it's actually in use by tens of millions of gamers around the world...I think it's do-able to cause major outages.

We saw what happened to Ubisofts online DRM that suffered complete outage at the hands of a botnet, some botnets are pretty big consisting of millions of computers at peak.

MS isn't using some Xbox network. They are using their business infrastructure. Azure cannot go down simply because that is the service they offer real customers. There is no botnet I've ever seen capable of taking that down. They are better off taking down Google.
 

purbeast0

No Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
52,930
5,802
126
It actually would have made more sense if it required an internet connection 100% of the time. At least they could have spun that in a way that benefited the consumer. They could have explained that:

1) They understand that Xbox ONE will not be a product for everyone, but they hope to see the audience expand as broadband internet becomes widely available.

2) Games will be designed specifically around their cloud infrastructure offloading AI and other processing.

3) Your saved games and game library are stored in the cloud and can be accessed from any ONE you're signed into.

4) You can deactivate your game license and sell the physical disk to anyone you want at retail or personally (there could be an online portal where people could verify the status of the license rather than restricting it to "participating retailers.")

5) Day 1 digital downloads will sell for $10 less than retail versions.

Soooo many things they could have done to use the "always on" nature of the system to their advantage instead. But instead they gave us a nanny state DRM, and a used game policy so confusing and convoluted nobody can even figure out how it works. Then then bring out their big executives on stage to blow smoke up our asses and basically say "hey this is great for everyone!"

yup i agree with pretty much everything you said. #4 is a really good idea too.

but now that i think about it, forza DID actually show off some cloud stuff with the favatar or whatever they called it. at least i THINK that was the cloud where the data was stored.
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
86
yup i agree with pretty much everything you said. #4 is a really good idea too.

but now that i think about it, forza DID actually show off some cloud stuff with the favatar or whatever they called it. at least i THINK that was the cloud where the data was stored.

They are trying to do pretty much 1,2 and 3. The problem is they don't have a system for 4 and 5 that consumers actually want. They also don't set the prices for games, so publishers really won't budge from the $60 price point unless MS removes their licensing fees (which is the only thing that makes them money from game sales).

The cloud stuff should offer some good things, if developers use it. The problem is, it will most likely be first party and exclusive only titles that take advantage of it. Why would CoD use something on Xbox they can't use on PS4? Unless MS pays developers to take advantage of it, it might not have as large and impact as MS wants.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
Well...it's not like this is new for Microsoft. They've been doing this sort of thing for years. Basically they've taken their OS/PC stance and added it to their console stance (since they want to act like it's a PC). They think because they dominate the PC world that this will work the same way.

I'm by no means a MS hater, but they are not exactly consumer friendly or concerned about what people think. Look at how they are pushing Windows 8. They are used to their product being out there and "on systems by default" which lends to automatic adoption of whatever they throw at you.
 
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