Prepare for a massive recession.

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
my car is 7 years old with 70k miles. so i only should expect 30-50k miles more out of this car?

While it's only anecdotal on my part the last car I had lasted 15 years and over 200,000 miles. It was a jalopy by the end, but it still ran fine.

According to the NYT it seems like you can expect more than that (assuming it's an average car)

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/a...100000.html?_r=3&ref=business&pagewanted=all&

The article is still kind of anecdote-y but the trends they identify that point towards greater longevity make sense to me.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
Cars are a necessity in many parts of the country. They are not an investment in they will resale for more than you bought them. They are an investment for employment. Buy what you can afford. Also look for low interest financing. My car has .9% financing. Also drive them until they cost more to maintain than a replacement car. I plan to drive this one into the ground like two cars before it. That means 10+ years and 5+ years of no payments. Leasing isnt the worst option if one can stay under the mileage and the up front down payment isnt ridiculous(many of them are however)
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
3. There are no NINJA loans in auto.
This is simply wrong. I bought a used car in late 2015, and they didn't verify anything I said. No letter from my employer, no proof that I own property, nothing. If I really wanted to, I could tell them I make 200k per year, and they would write that down as if it were fact. I'm sure that lending practice will backfire at some point.

It's hard to feel any pitty for the idiots who buy junk bonds. This is not a new scam. Seth Klarman's book was published in 1991, and even that book talked about the scam of junk bonds in the 1980's. They became popular when interest rates started falling, and investors were chasing yield. That was 25-30 years ago! It doesn't matter. People forget anything that happened more than 3 days ago, so they fall for the same scam every time. Warn people about an impending collapse in junk bonds? Why? They were warned every year for the past 25 years. By this point, the only people piling into them are people who want to lose money.


My opinion is that household savings are terrible as is household leverage. Many people have already bet the farm and have thin budgets.
Which is apparently a good thing. If the central bank is to be believed, savings are bad. You should live on the brink of bankruptcy at all times. You should have zero savings, zero investments, and lots of debt. Of course, this naturally means that small crises turn into epic disasters because one person losing their job for 5 months could cause bankruptcy and forced liquidation of their assets, but who cares about things like the future. Get out there and spend!

I guess I'm just an old person stuck in my old ways. As an enemy of central banking, I have about 3 years of income saved up in various investment accounts. I could be unemployed for a year and it would have no effect on my spending levels. I would still get haircuts at the same place with the same frequency, buy the same food, drive the same car, watch the same movies. If bankers are to be believed, this is bad. Stability is bad. The entire economy should be a tinderbox waiting for a spark.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
This is simply wrong. I bought a used car in late 2015, and they didn't verify anything I said. No letter from my employer, no proof that I own property, nothing. If I really wanted to, I could tell them I make 200k per year, and they would write that down as if it were fact. I'm sure that lending practice will backfire at some point.

It's hard to feel any pitty for the idiots who buy junk bonds. This is not a new scam. Seth Klarman's book was published in 1991, and even that book talked about the scam of junk bonds in the 1980's. They became popular when interest rates started falling, and investors were chasing yield. That was 25-30 years ago! It doesn't matter. People forget anything that happened more than 3 days ago, so they fall for the same scam every time. Warn people about an impending collapse in junk bonds? Why? They were warned every year for the past 25 years. By this point, the only people piling into them are people who want to lose money.



Which is apparently a good thing. If the central bank is to be believed, savings are bad. You should live on the brink of bankruptcy at all times. You should have zero savings, zero investments, and lots of debt. Of course, this naturally means that small crises turn into epic disasters because one person losing their job for 5 months could cause bankruptcy and forced liquidation of their assets, but who cares about things like the future. Get out there and spend!

I guess I'm just an old person stuck in my old ways. As an enemy of central banking, I have about 3 years of income saved up in various investment accounts. I could be unemployed for a year and it would have no effect on my spending levels. I would still get haircuts at the same place with the same frequency, buy the same food, drive the same car, watch the same movies. If bankers are to be believed, this is bad. Stability is bad. The entire economy should be a tinderbox waiting for a spark.
Depends on how you qualify. Prime credits will not verify as much but you'd be surprised at how much they can find out without calling. Most tap into data providers within seconds and can get more data on you from your SSN than your parents know. It isn't mortgage level verification but it isn't a mortgage level risk. Liquidity for cars is much higher and repo is very easy relative to houses, so you don't need the same level of checking.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
This is simply wrong. I bought a used car in late 2015, and they didn't verify anything I said. No letter from my employer, no proof that I own property, nothing. If I really wanted to, I could tell them I make 200k per year, and they would write that down as if it were fact. I'm sure that lending practice will backfire at some point.

It must depend on the dealership. When I bought my Lexus this past February I had to provide information so they could run a credit check even though I was paying cash for the car.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
It must depend on the dealership. When I bought my Lexus this past February I had to provide information so they could run a credit check even though I was paying cash for the car.

I would tell them to go spit. Do you want my money or not? I fully plan on doing this the next time I go to buy a car.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
I would tell them to go spit. Do you want my money or not? I fully plan on doing this the next time I go to buy a car.
It's probably to give reasonable assurance that the money is not stolen. The car company just wants to sell cars, but they don't want the government asking them why they would allow someone to hand over $20,000 in cash with no verification of where it came from. Maybe the government could declare that the cash is stolen property, so the company loses both the cash and the car. If it passes through a bank, they could point the finger at the bank. "The cash given to us by the bank via certified check is completely legal. The bank is the one holding the stolen cash. Go after them."
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
I would tell them to go spit. Do you want my money or not? I fully plan on doing this the next time I go to buy a car.

I asked the dealership and they use it gather data to use when they fill out a 8300 form. This 8300 form is required by the IRS to be submitted by the dealership when either paying more than $10k cash for a car or making a $10k or more cash down payment on a car. If you refuse to provide the information required for the 8300 form they will refuse to sell you the car as there's stiff penalties for noncompliance.

https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Smal...300-and-Reporting-Cash-Payments-of-Over-10000
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
You mean a cheque, right?

Yeah, a certified check. If they dont have the paperwork done in the time that it takes me to go to the bank and get a certified check, then they wont have a sale.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Every time I see this thread now, I think it's that other thread and read it as: "prepare for a massive erection."

 

stockwiz

Senior member
Sep 8, 2013
403
15
81
This current economic cycle is getting a bit long winded... we are probably going to be heading back down at some point. Not really any ammunition left since rates are still basically at zero. Can't wait. Tired of sky high overvaluations in stock prices. We got back down to fairly valued there a couple times but we're back up to stupid valuation territory in all the megacap stocks (not so much many mid and smaller cap stocks) ... I suppose that's just a function of all the big money in the system from QE.. it's going to flock to the largest stocks.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
This current economic cycle is getting a bit long winded
No kidding. We've been in a recession for about 15 years now. It's "normal" for 30 year olds to live with their parents. Old people are forced out of retirement just to keep the lights on.


Not really any ammunition left since rates are still basically at zero.
There's always negative rates and money printing. I'm personally betting on this happening.


Tired of sky high overvaluations in stock prices.
Get used to it. The price of everything is based on the price of money. That means interest rates. If the fed rate is zero, and the 10 year treasury pays 2%, it's not reasonable to expect stocks to pay 10% dividends. The prices of stocks are bid up until the dividend is closer to the treasury rate. 4-5% dividend could be considered "good" in these circumstances.

Asset prices being tied to interest rates are why the fed can't raise rates without causing a very severe recession. They raised rates in 1937, and it cause a depression within a depression. They raised rates last December, and the stock market immediately went into a tailspin. Then the fed backtracked and talked about how they might delay the rate hikes and they'll look at indicators and see how things go and blah blah blah. They will never normalize the rates. Even Bernanke said they won't be normalized in his life time. Unless he has stage 4 cancer and he's playing an epic joke on us, that means decades of this nonsense.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
No kidding. We've been in a recession for about 15 years now. It's "normal" for 30 year olds to live with their parents. Old people are forced out of retirement just to keep the lights on.



There's always negative rates and money printing. I'm personally betting on this happening.



Get used to it. The price of everything is based on the price of money. That means interest rates. If the fed rate is zero, and the 10 year treasury pays 2%, it's not reasonable to expect stocks to pay 10% dividends. The prices of stocks are bid up until the dividend is closer to the treasury rate. 4-5% dividend could be considered "good" in these circumstances.

Asset prices being tied to interest rates are why the fed can't raise rates without causing a very severe recession. They raised rates in 1937, and it cause a depression within a depression. They raised rates last December, and the stock market immediately went into a tailspin. Then the fed backtracked and talked about how they might delay the rate hikes and they'll look at indicators and see how things go and blah blah blah. They will never normalize the rates. Even Bernanke said they won't be normalized in his life time. Unless he has stage 4 cancer and he's playing an epic joke on us, that means decades of this nonsense.

it's not like Rome bounced right back when the Visigoths left. Looting sprees (aka the Ownership Society, the Roaring 20's, the railroad bubble after the Civil War) have long lasting consequences. The banksters have once again proven that the pen is mightier than the sword.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
my car is 7 years old with 70k miles. so i only should expect 30-50k miles more out of this car?
Without encountering semi-regular significant repair bills? Yes.

If you can't pay off a car in 5 years / 100k, you probably can't afford the payment and the repairs too.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Without encountering semi-regular significant repair bills? Yes.

If you can't pay off a car in 5 years / 100k, you probably can't afford the payment and the repairs too.

Very succinct. Thank you. That's what I was trying to say earlier.
 
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