Processor Speeds have Hit Brick Wall

halfpower

Senior member
Mar 19, 2005
298
0
0
Processor speeds have hit a virtual brick wall. CPU speed use to double every 18 months. I currently have an Athlon 3500 in my computer. What will the comuter industry produce that will render my machine obsolete? Some how I think an Athlon 28000 is not in the near future.

I guess memory speed might shoot up. Solid state hard drives could make a big improvement, but they are still 5+ years off. Any thoughts?
 

Twsmit

Senior member
Nov 30, 2003
925
0
76
You pretty much hit the issue on the head. Short term we will see dual core and quad/multi core chips, and more SMP software to take advantage. Also short term will see larger caches, faster FSB and improved onboard memory controllers. (in the case of intel they might adopt one in a few years)

After that longer down the road we might start seeing multi core chips that incoorperate fundamentally different types of cores. For example a dual core CPU with a 3rd physics unit for a total of 3 cores, quad core server chips with a 5th "math co processor core" for a total of 5, or a hybrid Itanium and x86 chip with one core of each etc.. funky stuff like that.

Outside of just more cores, im not quite sure where things are heading. Kind of pathetic right now looking at the state of the computer world.
 

George Powell

Golden Member
Dec 3, 1999
1,265
0
76
Efficiency and SMP are going to have a real bearing on what happens in the next few years.

The Pentium M and the Core processors from Intel have started off their campaign and AMD have shown for the last couple of years that efficiency is better than clockspeed.

Multi core processors run really well written SMP compliant code will make PCs faster.
 

ShadowBlade

Diamond Member
Feb 11, 2005
4,263
0
0
there gets to be a point where we demand a processor that moves faster than any electron could. No, we are not at that point yet, but its possible.
 

1N0V471V

Senior member
Mar 13, 2006
410
0
0
Architecture Architecture Architecture Architecture Architecture Architecture Architecture
 

mordantmonkey

Diamond Member
Dec 23, 2004
3,075
5
0
when nano tubes can be made cheaply then we will see some major increases in processor speeds.
It will basically take a new material for processor speeds to gain like they have in the past.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,672
5,431
136
Yeah, I know. I've had my Athlon 64 Mobile 3200+ 2ghz system for going on two years now and I haven't felt a real need to upgrade. It's extremely fast for nearly everything I do. Maybe dual-processor quad-core systems in the future?
 

chilled

Senior member
Jun 2, 2002
709
0
0
I wish more software took advantage of dual core and 64bitness, maybe we'd see more of an increase with these dual core CPUs.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,986
3,320
126
The situation is very simple....
Its called supply and demand...
So you are a gamer......what percentage do you think you fit in..compared to sat buisness apps or even the normal PC user???



Probably less than 5% of 1% of all computer users!!
We bemoan the fact the intel has lost the speed crown yet as a buisness Intel has ignored the gaming crowd over the last few years...why?

well think about it....the gaming crowd even when Intel was faster than AMD never made up a significant amount of Intel sales...

Hello...wake up....gamers are a very small percentage of all Computer users.
You could hardly say the PC industry rises and falls on what the gamers of the world think...

Anyways it truly all boils down into one sign--that is the almighty dollar...

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$..............
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
The answer is in your username. They'll develop the same speed processors with reduced power consumption.
 

ed21x

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 2001
5,411
8
81
Once solid state memory becomes mainstream, and speed increases, we'll see the movement towards an integration in cache, ram, memory, which will do away with endless swapping/page files and simplify everything. Heck, there might not be a need for RAM anymore in the near future. The entire system will be smalerl, more efficient, cooler, simpler, have no moving parts, and easier to integrate into everything else. Just imagine future computers in this state, having only a single SD slot, and roughly the size of an ipod with full gaming capabilities. I also believe that future architectures will rely less on dedicated co-processors (such as for sound, graphics, etc...), and will rely on multiple cell based processors with software doing the bulk of the work dividing up resources to the various cores as it sees fit for best efficiency in different situations. Transmeta would be a good example of this hardware/software integration... i wonder who owns them now?
 

Extelleron

Diamond Member
Dec 26, 2005
3,127
0
71
The days where the speed of a processor in Hz doubled every year or two are long over, at least until a major breakthrough is discovered in processor technology. So no, we won't see a 9 GHz Pentium 6 that's 3 times faster than a Pentium 4 @ 3 GHz anytime soon, but we will see a processor thats faster, even if its only running @ 4 GHz. Efficiency, cache sizes, manufacturing process, etc, can all be improved to make the processor alot faster without adding much more heat and the need for better cooling solutions like a simple increase in Hz. Conroe won't even break 3 GHz at the time of its release- but it will be much, much faster than a 3 GHz Pentium D. A Conroe EE that may be clocked @ 3.0 GHz w/ a 1333 MHz FSB and possibly 2x3-4MB of cache has the potential to be 2x as fast as a Pentium D at the same frequency- yet it will produce the same amount of heat (or probably less, because of a smaller process, 65nm, soon 45nm), and wont require any new cooling solutions. Now if Intel kept the Netburst architecture and improved their cooling, they could possibly release a Pentium D @ speeds above 4GHz, which would be an improvement in speed, but would produce more heat, take up more power, and require more expensive cooling than the Conroe @ 3 GHz which would still be much faster. The point I'm trying to make here is that increasing overall processor speed by an increase in clockspeed just isnt practical anymore- increase by efficiency, larger caches, and smaller manufacturing processes IS.
 

ed21x

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 2001
5,411
8
81
Originally posted by: electron
Originally posted by: ribbon13
Originally posted by: ed21x
Once solid state memory becomes mainstream

RAM is solid state... WTF?

Uh yeah it is. Do you even know what solid state is?

oOoo you guys must feel clever. Maybe I didn't make it clear enough when I was referring to memory as in for storage. Not Random Acess Memory that can only hold onto the data for the time a current is available. Current solid state memory such as flash cards have really fast access, but has a limited number of write cycles. My thinking was that once we replace Hard drives with Solid state, the access may be fast enough to not even require caching onto the RAM. Now I have to stop responding to know-it-all 13 year olds.
 

Howard

Lifer
Oct 14, 1999
47,982
10
81
Originally posted by: ed21x
Originally posted by: electron
Originally posted by: ribbon13
Originally posted by: ed21x
Once solid state memory becomes mainstream

RAM is solid state... WTF?

Uh yeah it is. Do you even know what solid state is?

oOoo you guys must feel clever. Maybe I didn't make it clear enough when I was referring to memory as in for storage. Not Random Acess Memory that can only hold onto the data for the time a current is available. Current solid state memory such as flash cards have really fast access, but has a limited number of write cycles. My thinking was that once we replace Hard drives with Solid state, the access may be fast enough to not even require caching onto the RAM. Now I have to stop responding to know-it-all 13 year olds.
You did call it memory. If you want to avoid confusion, use the popular nomenclature (nobody calls storage memory).

Besides, RAM can be used as solid state storage - it just needs a battery.
 
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