Property Houses May be the Next Big Crash; and it'll have a much bigger impact on the global and personal economy

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Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,415
14,307
136
Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: glugglug
If housing prices go down... does that also mean I'll have cheaper rent?
Yes, but in a way, you already do. Money magazine just did a recent article regarding the "P/E" ratios of home ownership. In many areas, home values have gone up so much faster than rents, that it actually makes more financial sense (both long-term and short-term) to rent than buy.
Personally though, I don't see a property value crash (per se) in the near future, although some regions may see a localized depression in values. What I do see is a flattening on the trend, with static values over a long period of time. When this will occur, however, is anyone's guess. Not as long as interest rates stay at historic lows, that's for sure. Rate is price, it's one of the hardest things for some people to understand when financing - on a relative basis, a low price at a high finance rate is the same as a high price at a low finance rate.
interesting. vic, can you find that money article online and provide a link to it? I'd love to read it.
It was in their latest copy... doesn't look like it is available online yet. Check your newsstand
 

ReiAyanami

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2002
4,466
0
0
housing prices will remain stable for a long time because the price of the house is spread out over 30 years mortgage, which makes it real easy for many to buy a house. however the cost of owning house is expensive because most places have 3% property tax so over the 30 year mortgage, you will have paid for the house and extra 100% to the government.

not to mention when adjusting for inflation, my parents bought a house for $70k in TX when they came here, they sold it a few years ago for $90k but technically lost money when you factor in inflation for the same period
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Yeppers

Great to see how owned Shiner Harrison, Vic etc were.

Wonder how burned they were in the resulting crash they insisted would never happen.

Dont recall saying it would not happen. At the time there was no sign of it. Fortunately the house I purchased in 2001 was only minimally affected by the bubble bursting.


So when are we getting that $5 gas again?
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Bubbles for Bankstas!

Just think of them as the modern equivalent of the Visigoths, roaming from place to place, looting and pillaging as they go. First Sweden and Japan, then the US, Iceland, Ireland, and now onward to to new pump and dump adventures!
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,654
10,517
136
If the intrest rate climbs even a modest amount the market will fall big time... It will be intresting to see how this Freddie Mac Criminal Probe turns out. Lenders are giving loans where they would never give them in the past based upon the value of their home... The level of Debt to income ratios are higher then they have ever been in the past. The only thing supporting that is the low intrest rates... Honetly I think Greenspan has done a big error in letting the rates drop so low as even a modest increase will hurt big time....

The only reason Freddie Mac got into the subprime market in the first place was because they were losing market share big time to the PRIVATE subprime market that was going gangbusters. The get blamed because they were the last ones caught holding the cards.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
The only reason Freddie Mac got into the subprime market in the first place was because they were losing market share big time to the PRIVATE subprime market that was going gangbusters. The get blamed because they were the last ones caught holding the cards.

That is incorrect. The govt heavily encouraged freedie/fannie to do subprime lending as well. They were the end buyers of many of these subprime loans as well.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
That is incorrect. The govt heavily encouraged freedie/fannie to do subprime lending as well. They were the end buyers of many of these subprime loans as well.

His point was that private industry led the way. You didn't refute that in your point.
 

bamacre

Lifer
Jul 1, 2004
21,030
2
61
Bubbles for Bankstas!

Just think of them as the modern equivalent of the Visigoths, roaming from place to place, looting and pillaging as they go. First Sweden and Japan, then the US, Iceland, Ireland, and now onward to to new pump and dump adventures!

You're beloved government has given them all they ever wanted. Nothing to stop them now.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
Who do you think was buying those mortgages that the private industry was making. There were lots of players in this mess.

I didnt say there wernt. YOU were the one who said his statement was incorrect and then made a relevant BUT unrelated point.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
You're beloved government has given them all they ever wanted. Nothing to stop them now.

So, uhh, you're arguing that banking needed better oversight, particularly during the Bush years, or what?

Just taking a swipe at teh Ebil Gubmint?
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
So, uhh, you're arguing that banking needed better oversight, particularly during the Bush years, or what?

Just taking a swipe at teh Ebil Gubmint?

I do think bamacre wants bigger government in the realm of financial regulations :biggrin: Strange world we live in.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
349
126
The only reason Freddie Mac got into the subprime market in the first place was because they were losing market share big time to the PRIVATE subprime market that was going gangbusters. The get blamed because they were the last ones caught holding the cards.

Very good point, so easily misrepresented by the spinners.

People often don't understand that one of the things with this sort of issue - bad investment activity that generates short-term results - is that it only takes a small part of the market doing it for competitive pressure to force pretty much everyone else to either join in or go out of business.

The same thing was seen in the Savings and Loan scandals decades ago.

Goevernment (Reagan/Bush era) deregulation - that was corrupt 'giving them what they wanted in deregulation, undoing the FDR-era rules' - let them do investments that were very profitable in the short term, and bad for the system and society, as the more 'responsible' Savings and Loans lost business and more business as the corrupt ones shot up past them in returns - for a while. Some were able to weather the phase and then say how good they'd been, but others were gone.

At least that time, hundreds of people went to jail. Not one this time.
 

Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
17,303
158
106
londojowo.hypermart.net
Very good point, so easily misrepresented by the spinners.

The same can be said of spinners such as yourself who refuse to see how much the government (Housing Affordability Act, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) had to do with the housing bubble and the resulting collapse. Many people were given mortgages they couldn't afford with little to no down payment.
 
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