Ninjahedge
Diamond Member
- Mar 2, 2005
- 4,149
- 1
- 91
It just depends on when you start measuring the chance.
If you do it from the start, you have the same chance of getting 1X or 2X no matter what you do.
The second scenario would be like this.
You pay $50 to either get $0 or get $150 on a 50/50 chance (you start with $100, you pay $100 to get $50, a loss of $50, or you pay $50 to get $200, a gain of $150). When you limit it to the actual money being risked and the time that you risk it in, it is a 3:1 net gain at 50% (I believe that swould be 1.5?)
Again, it all depends on when you start. If you have nothing, you pick one envelope and then are offered to select the other, your chances are still the same as if you picked the other from the start.
If you do it from the start, you have the same chance of getting 1X or 2X no matter what you do.
The second scenario would be like this.
You pay $50 to either get $0 or get $150 on a 50/50 chance (you start with $100, you pay $100 to get $50, a loss of $50, or you pay $50 to get $200, a gain of $150). When you limit it to the actual money being risked and the time that you risk it in, it is a 3:1 net gain at 50% (I believe that swould be 1.5?)
Again, it all depends on when you start. If you have nothing, you pick one envelope and then are offered to select the other, your chances are still the same as if you picked the other from the start.