Question about probability

[mugs]

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik
And there is a 100% chance I'm going to bed now.

Good night.

Actually only 50%.

hypn0tik, don't take life too seriously, you'll never get out alive.

 

[hypn0tik]

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN
All probabilities are 50%. Either an event will occur, or it will not.

So the probability of getting a 1 after rolling a fair die is 50%? Not quite.

You are probably (no pun intended), thinking of Bernoulli Trials, where a 'success' is defined, and the outcome is either a success or failure. (Note that the probability of success is not necessarily 50%).

No. 50%. You will either roll a 1 or you will not.

Sorry, try again. There is a 1/6 chance that you will roll a one and a 5/6 chance you will not.

Nah. The event occurs or it does not. It's quite simple.

Hahahaha. If only life were that simple.

There's a 50% chance that it is.

And there is a 100% chance I'm going to bed now.

Good night.

Actually only 50%.

hypn0tik, don't take life too seriously, you'll never get out alive.

Hahaha. Well said. Then again, has ANYONE ever gotten out alive?

 

[Random Variable]

A probability of zero does not necessarily mean that it can't occur.

 

[Evadman]

the 'mathamaticly correct' answer is zero. It proves our number system (to me anyway) is not perfect.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: hypn0tik
Hahaha. Well said. Then again, has ANYONE ever gotten out alive?

I'd put the probability of that at about 50%

 

[chuckywang]

Originally posted by: Dissipate
I was thinking about probability and I thought of this. If you have a sample space of infinite events, does that mean that any event in that sample space has a 0 chance of ocurring?

Yes.

 

[Hector13]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
Nonetheless, as I already said, it is impossible to actually choose *at random* a number between 0 and 1, with infinite precision. As soon as you specify the number of decimal places before the rest of the digits are 0, you have made it a finite set of numbers. How could you ever randomly select a number (at random) and have an infinite number of decimal places?

I don't know if I agree with this logic... what is to stop me from picking 1/3 or 1/7 or 1/n?

I think the probability of picking one event out of an infinite number of possibilities is zero, but not becuase of the reasoning above.

 

[cirthix]

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: hypn0tik
Hahaha. Well said. Then again, has ANYONE ever gotten out alive?

I'd put the probability of that at about 50%

so what are our chances of survival?

33.3 precent, repeating of course...

leeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Hector13]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: AgaBoogaBoo
1 in infinite chance

If you think .9 repeating = 1, then yes, would be 0 I imagine assuming you think .0000000000...00001 equals 0

So suppose you had a bag of infinite things and you reached in and pulled something out. According to that logic that thing just cannot be pulled out of the bag because it has 0 chance of being pulled. But it must be pulled out if you reach in and grab it.

once you pull something out of your infinite bag, all the pre-draw probabilities are meaningless. You now already have sampled from the bag so your probability of pulling out whatever you did is 100%.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Random Variable
A probability of zero does not necessarily mean that it can't occur.

That's interesting. Explain.

 

[yosuke188]

I don't think probability and infinite are 2 words that should be used together

 

[maziwanka]

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN
All probabilities are 50%. Either an event will occur, or it will not.

So the probability of getting a 1 after rolling a fair die is 50%? Not quite.

You are probably (no pun intended), thinking of Bernoulli Trials, where a 'success' is defined, and the outcome is either a success or failure. (Note that the probability of success is not necessarily 50%).

No. 50%. You will either roll a 1 or you will not.

Sorry, try again. There is a 1/6 chance that you will roll a one and a 5/6 chance you will not.

Nah. The event occurs or it does not. It's quite simple.

Hahahaha. If only life were that simple.

There's a 50% chance that it is.

And there is a 100% chance I'm going to bed now.

Good night.

Actually only 50%.

hypn0tik, don't take life too seriously, you'll never get out alive.

Hahaha. Well said. Then again, has ANYONE ever gotten out alive?

OdiN is the man

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: maziwanka

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN

Originally posted by: hypn0tik

Originally posted by: OdiN
All probabilities are 50%. Either an event will occur, or it will not.

So the probability of getting a 1 after rolling a fair die is 50%? Not quite.

You are probably (no pun intended), thinking of Bernoulli Trials, where a 'success' is defined, and the outcome is either a success or failure. (Note that the probability of success is not necessarily 50%).

No. 50%. You will either roll a 1 or you will not.

Sorry, try again. There is a 1/6 chance that you will roll a one and a 5/6 chance you will not.

Nah. The event occurs or it does not. It's quite simple.

Hahahaha. If only life were that simple.

There's a 50% chance that it is.

And there is a 100% chance I'm going to bed now.

Good night.

Actually only 50%.

hypn0tik, don't take life too seriously, you'll never get out alive.

Hahaha. Well said. Then again, has ANYONE ever gotten out alive?

OdiN is the man

/Head, eyes explode

 

[stan394]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: AgaBoogaBoo
1 in infinite chance

If you think .9 repeating = 1, then yes, would be 0 I imagine assuming you think .0000000000...00001 equals 0

So suppose you had a bag of infinite things and you reached in and pulled something out. According to that logic that thing just cannot be pulled out of the bag because it has 0 chance of being pulled. But it must be pulled out if you reach in and grab it.

In other words, even if some event must occur within the sample space it still has 0 chance of doing so?

infinity is not a number. so 'infinity things' doesn't make sense

 

[desteffy]

what you speak of is a set with "zero measure" even though it is not an empty set of things, it is so much smaller than the sample space that it can be regarded as something that can "almost never" happen.