Questions of Timing To Maximize Value for New Card Releases

[poofyhairguy]

Normally I never sell my old cards or try to time my GPU purchases with new releases. I skip every other generation (or two) and buy the best I can afford when I am paying attention and then I give away the old (kinda worthless) GPU. Yet many recent benchmarks have made me decide I shouldn't ride my Maxwell 2 card past this year, which means for the first time I plan to move from one generation to the next (or get a crazy clearance deal on last gen when the next gen hits). To finance the move I am going to do something I have never done before and try to sell my current card at the right time when it still has value to help finance the next card. Which leads to my questions:


When is the best time to sell your current card for the most value before the new cards hit? As soon as they are rumored? As soon as they are announced?

Do most gamers pay attention to the point that old cards immediately drop in value the day concrete rumors pop up? Or is it when the new cards are in the retail channel that the overall value for all cards change?


Right now my 970 goes on Ebay for nearly what its original value was, so if I sold it soon I get most of my money back (like 90%). But if new cards don't hit until Q3 I am gaming on my 750 ti for half a year (which I don't want to do if I can avoid it). For a concrete example, I would be happy gaming on the 750 ti for say two months if that is where I get say 85% of the 970's value compared to 90% today but if two months out I can only get say 70% of the value then I need to get on Ebay ASAP. I am not a Titan-level consumer that is willing to throw out hundreds of dollars a year to stay in the hobby, but I lack any experience about this sort of timing.

Thank you in advance for letting me loan your experience.

 

[thesmokingman]

Months before release. If you wait too long, other ppl will come up with the same idea and the used market will get saturated. Typically I'd say 4-6 months before for best return.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Months before release. If you wait too long, other ppl will come up with the same idea and the used market will get saturated. Typically I'd say 4-6 months before for best return.

So if cards are really coming in June or even Q3 that means sell ASAP right?

Thank you for the advice.

 

[thesmokingman]

So if cards are really coming in June or even Q3 that means sell ASAP right?

Thank you for the advice.

Yea imo if you want to lock in on the highest resale values. The closer you get to release ppl will speculate the same thing and start to unload. The worst thing that will happen selling early is that you limp along a lil longer with a big wad of cash in hand right? Also, if you want to stretch it out, keep an eye on the classifieds. Go on ebay and keep adding for sale by owner 970s to your watch list and see the final price outcomes. When it starts dropping move asap.

 

[moonbogg]

Its a gamble. I don't think I have ever done that, but if I did I would wait until some rumors start to hit the scene, specs get leaked before release usually, benchmarks start getting leaked and everything pretty much starts to heat up. Sometimes its a complete surprise though. If selling this round, I would plan on selling mid May and pay attention in the mean time for any signs of an imminent release.

 

[thesmokingman]

By the time benches come out it's too late. Everyone else is already thinking the same!

 

[poofyhairguy]

By the time benches come out it's too late. Everyone else is already thinking the same!

Wow, you are really scaring me. I guess I need to get on this. My secondary box will have to tide me over I guess, glad I didn't buy Far Cry Primal yet.

If only I would have bought that similarly priced 290x instead at the time, sigh.

 

[96Firebird]

I disagree with others above, relying on my own experience. I sold my 770 2GB for $250 the night the 970 @ $330 was announced. Overall, I owned the 770 for about a year and sold it for $30 less than what I paid after rebate and selling game codes. Sure, you have to be quick, but most people didn't expect the 970 to have such a low MSRP.

If I don't decide to re-purpose my 970 when the new cards hit, I might try the same strategy and see if I can beat the price tanking.

 

[4K_shmoorK]

To me timing, is a bit of a crapshoot.

Sell 2-3 months before next gen launch, you lose out on any gaming you could have done during that time period for maybe $30-50 more in resale value compared to selling a month or a couple weeks before launch. Not worth it IMO.

I think a more important aspect what 'tier' the card you're trying to sell is. I'd wager anything GTX 970/ R9 290 or above is going to sell like used hotcakes from now until 3 months after next-gen launch. All those cards perform awesome at 1080p/1440p and alot of people will be looking to pick one up for less than they would pay for a new one.

As for me, I don't think I'm even going to upgrade right away (980 Ti). Might as well wait till the Ti equivalent of Pascal comes around as I don't need anymore performance @ 1440p. Sweet spot card right now.

 

[kondziowy]

970 dropped performance in games this month. I don't know why it still keeps it's price. But people know what's up. On my local market there are no good offers for used R9 280x/290/290x with good cooling anymore - everything sold like a month ago / or this month. I watched the last R9 290 Sapphire Tri-X go for half of the used GTX980 price while I was debating if I should get it What a dumb ass I am... I think people are already ditching Maxwell.

This time it's much different than 770->970 transition. Back then 2GB cards were still rocking, there were no games requiring more, + nobody was expecting Kepler to tank like it did couple months later. Now we see 970 tanking already...

 

[KingFatty]

The two aspects are tied to each other.

If you sell early, you get a higher price because nobody else wants to take that risk of being without a video card a long time.

The closer to next card's release, the more people will be willing to sell, and the price goes down.

You are rewarded financially for taking on the risk of selling too early.

 

[poofyhairguy]

The two aspects are tied to each other.

If you sell early, you get a higher price because nobody else wants to take that risk of being without a video card a long time.

The closer to next card's release, the more people will be willing to sell, and the price goes down.

You are rewarded financially for taking on the risk of selling too early.

Yeah that all makes sense to me logically, but the reason I asked the question is I feel there might be an X-factor at play that logical stance doesn't take into account: many gamers aren't so tuned into the hobby as people here are.

Gamers I know not on ATOT don't know Maxwell is tanking in new games, or that AMD probably has a real advantage with future Directx 12 games. In fact most of the IRL gamers I know still think Nvidia is "the best," mostly because of the 980 ti that they don't own.

If most gamers are like the IRL gamers I know, I can wait until we have solid date leaks and fairly solid price points before I sell because they won't know that the new products are released until they are on the store shelf. If most gamers are like ATOT then I am already screwed, there is no way I would try to sell an Nvidia card on here.

I am just trying to figure out which scenario is more likely. I am very risk adverse personally so I might just sell my card this week to be safe.

 

[maddie]

I think its safe to say that the present price is the highest you will get. Anyone here expects an increase as we saw with the 290 & 290X?

 

[Silverforce11]

Next-gen Polaris is launching in mid-year, AMD have said this multiple times.

For Pascal, we still don't know, but they are rumored to release info during Computex.

Basically once concrete info is out, if you resell older gen, to fetch a good price you have to be selling to uninformed buyers.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Next-gen Polaris is launching in mid-year, AMD have said this multiple times.

For Pascal, we still don't know, but they are rumored to release info during Computex.

Basically once concrete info is out, if you resell older gen, to fetch a good price you have to be selling to uninformed buyers.

Thank you for the solid answer. Computex is what, April? That gives me a good timeframe.

 

[Denithor]

The AMD card "bump" up in price is due to the resurgence of cryptocurrency mining. I picked up a 7970 on eBay for $115 shipped like a month ago, today these cards are $180-200. And all the other used AMD cards have experienced similar jumps.

Unfortunately you can't count on this to happen with nVidia cards, for some reason they have never been competitive in mining with equivalently priced AMD offerings.

 

[boozzer]

very few are like members of this forum. Most would not know about cards and their performance before release day and benchmarks.

a week before the actual release date would be your best bet. I have no idea if and when pre-release benchmarks could impact prices. if you want to be super safe, 2 weeks would be enough to ensure there are no pre-release benchmarks.

 

[poofyhairguy]

very few are like members of this forum. Most would not know about cards and their performance before release day and benchmarks.

a week before the actual release date would be your best bet. I have no idea if and when pre-release benchmarks could impact prices. if you want to be super safe, 2 weeks would be enough to ensure there are no pre-release benchmarks.

Yeah that is what I was thinking at first too, but now I am getting nervous.

Really what this thread made me realize is that I shouldn't play the nice GPU game. The 970 is by far my most valuable GPU ever (I was always a $150-$200 GPU guy before) and the idea of it losing like 40% of that value overnight kinda makes me sick. I might sell it just to buy two cheaper GPUs instead to get back at a level I am comfortable at. My old 7970 Ghz that I sold for $150 last year (and I bought for $200 in early 2014) never really felt like a huge difference anyway.

For some reason technology depreciation normally doesn't bug me but I think that is because usually its gradual. My smartphone loses hundreds in value over two years but not all at once- each month the Swappa average lowers. My CPUs hold value great, the 2500k is almost worth what I paid in 2012. Something like a PSU doesn't really lose value in chunks. Only a GPU just drops off a cliff overnight because Nvidia or AMD have a press conference the next morning.

I just don't have the stomach for that, and I am only worried about my piddly 970. If I would have bought one of those $700 780 tis only to have a $330 970 nearly beat it less than a year later I would have quit the hobby and bought a console. That kind of loss feels too much like gambling to me, and I really really dislike casinos.

 

[boozzer]

if that is the case, sell it 1 month before next gen release dates. just for your peace of mind. I checked a few auction sites and a few swap sites, prices are still pretty decent on used. you really don't have to worry about prices tanking as most people don't know about buying or selling used hardware. I know I didn't till I bought a used 280x 1.5 years ago.

 

[96Firebird]

It sounds like you're worrying for nothing. Enjoy your card and enjoy gaming with it, but keep an eye on the future. You're already keen to upcoming releases, and you'll be the first to know when/if you should sell. Don't listen to rumors; wait for solid info from the horse's mouth. Used prices won't drop overnight, even if they should. There will always be a lag, as a lot of buyers on eBay and such will just look at what previous listings sold at and use that as the baseline.

The fact that the 970's used price is still so high should be reassuring to you as an owner, I'm actually quite surprised at it myself. If you bought your 970 around launch, like I did, having a card that has barely decreased in value over 18 months is pretty stellar (but shows market stagnation...).

 

[poofyhairguy]

I sold my GTX 970 last weekend and I got a decent price so I am safe.

I decided that deep down I like this subforum, and I have enjoyed the last year I have followed it more actively. Yet I also realized the longer I stuck with the GTX 970 the less I wanted to follow this subforum, as each new game benchmark thread made it look like a dog and made me feel bad for ever getting it. It is like watching my favorite sports team getting blown out- eventually it is less painful to look away.

Plus with money sitting in my paypal account I can follow each thread about new GPUs with glee because they might apply to me (even though my frugalness will more likely push me towards a clearance GPU from this generation when the new ones hit). At the end of the day, I have more fun following this forum then I get off of the delta power difference between the GTX 970 I had and the 750 ti I will game on while I wait for the next card to buy.



Thank you for the advice everyone.

 

[Silverforce11]

Well, now you got $ in the account, ready for Polaris or Pascal in a few months! \o/

 

[poofyhairguy]

Well, now you got $ in the account, ready for Polaris or Pascal in a few months! \o/

Yup!

I still plan to play chicken with eBay, but I will do that with the 750 ti as I would love to replace it's noisy ass this year too. I just have way less to lose there, I paid $80 for that card. So it can wait, less room for it to depreciate.