hmm lots to respond to..
first of all, I say rumored, because I don't trust websites that give out info before the NDA is up. it's a simple yet effective rule that I follow to prevent myself from getting caught up in specs of non-released cards.
so I call it (you're referring to the 20% number) a rumor.
now as for the performance increase argument, I'm talking about todays games, that includes SS:SE, Quake 3/RTCW, Mirrowind and so on.
You are far underestimating just how much faster the next generation of cards will be.
are you saying that the mere increase in transistor count is what is making you that confident that you'll say that?
their overall power will be vastly increased, but that is simply becuase they need it for the new DX9 functions. don't think this extra power is all going towards more pixel pipes, or floating point vertex/pixel shaders. what do I expect out of the NV30? a full DX9 chip, which means it'll be similar to the P10 in that the vertex/pixel shaders are FPU units, requiring alot more room to accomplish the same thing (though adding versatility also).
yes I know the P10 already doubles the vertex shader speed in theory of the GF4 by including enough FPU units to double the throughput, or even more because of finer granularity (ie, one instruction per FPU unit per clock rather than a fixed unit that can do 4 instructions per clock which will be inefficient when the program only asks for 3 or less instructions to be executed.
I expect all of these cards (P10, R300, NV30) to have at least double the shading speeds. that means alot of FPU units, which means alot of space being taken up.
and if ATi and nVidia want more efficiency out of the memory, they'll have to further advance their rendering designs, potentially eating up even more die space (perhaps the NV30 will also have a Command processor).
100% faster in RTCW at 1600 eh? that's interesting. I wonder if that's simply due to more efficient memory management/usage.
the R300 is expected to have 256 bit VRAM and it'll be faster than the Ti4600's memory clock,
that may be true, but I still think it won't be so tangible in DX7 type games like RTCW (yes I know RTCW is OpenGL, but I don't think they have any DX8 level features in it now do they?).
maybe I'm just underestimating what that extra memory bandwidth will do (maybe it's a necessity for upcoming games, what with so many passes and all).
Not necessarily and in fact it can be quite the opposite - complex pixel/vertex operations that execute multiple times on single pixels/vertices have the effect of shifting the bottleneck entirely onto the core and leaving the memory bandwidth alone.
actually they (the pixel/vertex shaders) have a limit to the amount of operations they can execute (I think it was 256 for the P10). while that is high by todays standards, there is a limit.