R600 delays point to problems

[5150Joker]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/02/14/nvidia_results_q4_07/

I'm guessing the 8800 is selling very well

Nvidia last night reported a record quarterly revenenue when it posted the results of Q4 FY2007. The quarter, which ended on 28 January, saw sales rise to $878.9m, up 39 per cent on the year-ago quarter and seven per cent on the previous three-month period.

Record profits for the 3 month period that the 8800 came out in. Without competition they are rolling in cash.

That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

 

[sisq0kidd]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

No big loss?

It's not so much about how your flagship card sells, but more so the image it creates for one's company. The highend cards reflect and sell low and mid end cards.

AMD isn't just losing some fanboys, it's losing an image battle at the same time.

 

[Matt2]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/02/14/nvidia_results_q4_07/

I'm guessing the 8800 is selling very well

Nvidia last night reported a record quarterly revenenue when it posted the results of Q4 FY2007. The quarter, which ended on 28 January, saw sales rise to $878.9m, up 39 per cent on the year-ago quarter and seven per cent on the previous three-month period.

Record profits for the 3 month period that the 8800 came out in. Without competition they are rolling in cash.

That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

I dont see how that data is meaningless. I'd like to see AMD/ATI's reported earnings for the same three month period.

 

[Wreckage]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

It's the best indicator you are going to get, since you generally don't get to see actual sales figures. When one company has record sales and the others tank hits the toilet you can draw an easy conclusion why.

How about this then....
http://www.neowin.net/index.php?act=view&id=38121

Since October, we shipped nearly 400 thousand GeForce 8800s.

 

[Regs]

If this was because of marketing - then marketing knows something we don't or have the mental IQ of a nat.

Either way, they are falling behind competition. They merged with a company with the same problem. Innovation and production is the only thing that can dig them out of this hole.

I don't know what Hector sees that we don't. Though I do hope he has more conceptual skills and leadership abilities than anybody at The Inq.

 

[chizow]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

It's the best indicator you are going to get, since you generally don't get to see actual sales figures. When one company has record sales and the others tank hits the toilet you can draw an easy conclusion why.

How about this then....
http://www.neowin.net/index.php?act=view&id=38121

Since October, we shipped nearly 400 thousand GeForce 8800s.

That data is meanlingless unless we have um....more numbers? lol. Nice find though, I remember someone mentioning NV was placing emergency orders with TMSC around the New Year because they couldn't keep up with demand. Last I checked AMD/ATI was losing money, I guess the only question is who's losing more money, old ATI or old AMD.

Like others brought up and one of the few things the author nails on the head is the importance of mind share. Being able to boast things like "The World's Most Powerful Graphics Processor" like Intel's C2D marketing campaign has a powerful effect on the mainstream consumer market.

If I had to bet, NV is going to get their mainstream DX10 parts to market faster than any R600-based parts. Once that happens, you'll see large OEMs like Dell offering different configurations like:

Add:
+$500 nVidia 8800GTX
+$400 ATI X1950XTX
+$200 nVidia 8600GT
+$200 ATI X1800XT

Which part do you think Joe Average PC Buyer is going to choose? Mind share does impact market share and AMD/ATI is clearly losing on both fronts.

 

[5150Joker]

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

How about this then....
http://www.neowin.net/index.php?act=view&id=38121

Since October, we shipped nearly 400 thousand GeForce 8800s.

That's better and is exactly what I was looking for. If we assume the 400k units nVidia has sold are direct losses for AMD at the high end, I wonder what percentage of total GPU sales the high end constitutes for the lifetime of a GPU? If the data for past GPU sales are available, it wouldn't be hard to extrapolate how much money and/or sales AMD might lose in the long run for the R600 series--this is assuming they actually keep it around a full cycle and don't rush out a refresh like they did the X1900.

 

[5150Joker]

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

It's the best indicator you are going to get, since you generally don't get to see actual sales figures. When one company has record sales and the others tank hits the toilet you can draw an easy conclusion why.

How about this then....
http://www.neowin.net/index.php?act=view&id=38121

Since October, we shipped nearly 400 thousand GeForce 8800s.

That data is meanlingless unless we have um....more numbers? lol. Nice find though, I remember someone mentioning NV was placing emergency orders with TMSC around the New Year because they couldn't keep up with demand. Last I checked AMD/ATI was losing money, I guess the only question is who's losing more money, old ATI or old AMD.

Like others brought up and one of the few things the author nails on the head is the importance of mind share. Being able to boast things like "The World's Most Powerful Graphics Processor" like Intel's C2D marketing campaign has a powerful effect on the mainstream consumer market.

If I had to bet, NV is going to get their mainstream DX10 parts to market faster than any R600-based parts. Once that happens, you'll see large OEMs like Dell offering different configurations like:

Add:
+$500 nVidia 8800GTX
+$400 ATI X1950XTX
+$200 nVidia 8600GT
+$200 ATI X1800XT

Which part do you think Joe Average PC Buyer is going to choose? Mind share does impact market share and AMD/ATI is clearly losing on both fronts.

If you're talking about the average joe PC buyer, he'd be inclined to pick the cheapest option available.

 

[Zstream]

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: Wreckage

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
That data is meaningless unless we have solid sales figures for the 8800 series itself.

It's the best indicator you are going to get, since you generally don't get to see actual sales figures. When one company has record sales and the others tank hits the toilet you can draw an easy conclusion why.

How about this then....
http://www.neowin.net/index.php?act=view&id=38121

Since October, we shipped nearly 400 thousand GeForce 8800s.

That data is meanlingless unless we have um....more numbers? lol. Nice find though, I remember someone mentioning NV was placing emergency orders with TMSC around the New Year because they couldn't keep up with demand. Last I checked AMD/ATI was losing money, I guess the only question is who's losing more money, old ATI or old AMD.

Like others brought up and one of the few things the author nails on the head is the importance of mind share. Being able to boast things like "The World's Most Powerful Graphics Processor" like Intel's C2D marketing campaign has a powerful effect on the mainstream consumer market.

If I had to bet, NV is going to get their mainstream DX10 parts to market faster than any R600-based parts. Once that happens, you'll see large OEMs like Dell offering different configurations like:

Add:
+$500 nVidia 8800GTX
+$400 ATI X1950XTX
+$200 nVidia 8600GT
+$200 ATI X1800XT

Which part do you think Joe Average PC Buyer is going to choose? Mind share does impact market share and AMD/ATI is clearly losing on both fronts.

Actually you are dead wrong, AMD would have reported a 50m+ in surpus revenue if it did not buy ATI. So please ah heck off...

 

[crazydingo]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

Seems like you got them rilled up. :laugh:

Btw, Nvidia made $50m from G80 so far, no where close to the $225 million some one pulled out of their ass.

 

[chizow]

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
If you're talking about the average joe PC buyer, he'd be inclined to pick the cheapest option available.

So they're probably buying Nvidia products anyways.

Originally posted by: Zstream

Actually you are dead wrong, AMD would have reported a 50m+ in surpus revenue if it did not buy ATI. So please ah heck off...

Really?
(574)

isn't a good number following Net income (loss) but if you want to get technical, they only lost 24M after excluding ATI acquisition costs......

Originally posted by: crazydingo
Btw, Nvidia made $50m from G80 so far, no where close to the $225 million some one pulled out of their ass.

$50M in profits? Not bad, 20-25% of their net profit in Q4. Who said the high-end GPU market wasn't profitable?

 

[crazydingo]

Originally posted by: chizow
$50M in profits? Not bad, 20-25% of their net profit in Q4. Who said the high-end GPU market wasn't profitable?

I havent seen any one ask a question and jump to conclusion within the same line. :laugh:

$50m in revenue. AFAIK G80 cost Nvidia about $400m+ in R&D alone.

 

[chizow]

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: chizow
$50M in profits? Not bad, 20-25% of their net profit in Q4. Who said the high-end GPU market wasn't profitable?

I havent seen any one ask a question and jump to conclusion within the same line. :laugh:

$50m in revenue. AFAIK G80 cost Nvidia about $400m+ in R&D alone.

$400m amortized and offset against 4 years of profit. Not everyone has to take a $400m R&D expense in one quarter.

You're the one that pulled the figure, if you're going to throw around numbers might want to clarify them or someone might accuse you of pulling numbers out of your ass. :roll:

 

[Keysplayr]

Originally posted by: SickBeast

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

Hmmmm. Leseee. 500K * $450.00 (assuming they are all GTS's) = $225,000,000

Or, you can just count the GPU itself which carries a 125.00 tag per chip.

Yeah, I'm sure ATI wanted no part of that. Yechhhh.. Filthy money..

That $450 isn't straight profit. There's the retailers cut (25%-50% I'm guessing), and it costs *something* to make the cards (probably $25-50 I assume).

Yes and that goes for ANY company we are talking about here. So what is the difference?

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003

Originally posted by: SickBeast

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003

Originally posted by: 5150Joker
Doom and gloom aside for a minute, what are the sales figures for the 8800 GTX? If they haven't broken 500k then it's really no big loss for AMD to have waited longer and INQs point about low and midrange parts being the money makers is right on the mark. The only thing AMD has lost at this point is mind share with fanboys that sway like the wind.

Hmmmm. Leseee. 500K * $450.00 (assuming they are all GTS's) = $225,000,000

Or, you can just count the GPU itself which carries a 125.00 tag per chip.

Yeah, I'm sure ATI wanted no part of that. Yechhhh.. Filthy money..

That $450 isn't straight profit. There's the retailers cut (25%-50% I'm guessing), and it costs *something* to make the cards (probably $25-50 I assume).

Yes and that goes for ANY company we are talking about here. So what is the difference?

It just didn't make sense to me that you would quote the price of a retail card when nVidia only sells the chips.

IMO they might have made 500K * $100 per GPU = $50 million

 

[crazydingo]

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: chizow
$50M in profits? Not bad, 20-25% of their net profit in Q4. Who said the high-end GPU market wasn't profitable?

I havent seen any one ask a question and jump to conclusion within the same line. :laugh:

$50m in revenue. AFAIK G80 cost Nvidia about $400m+ in R&D alone.

$400m amortized and offset against 4 years of profit. Not everyone has to take a $400m R&D expense in one quarter.

You're the one that pulled the figure, if you're going to throw around numbers might want to clarify them or someone might accuse you of pulling numbers out of your ass. :roll:

Yes but has G80 brought in "4 years" profit? So far its making up a small portion of what was invested in. No doubt Nvidia will make all that $400m and more back once their G84 & G86 variants bring in the dough. But until then, G80 hasnt opened any flood gates for them. The high end market remains a niche and Nvidia is doing well in that specific niche. For the rest of the market which is more than 90%, they have nothing to show. On similar grounds as AMD.

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

 

[chizow]

Originally posted by: crazydingo

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

lol, where'd you quote it direct from nVidia? What I didn't do was multiply the 400k units shipped and multiply it by the $125 per chip number (someone pulled from their ass) to get total revenue from G80. :laugh:

[/quote]

 

[crazydingo]

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: crazydingo

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

lol, where'd you quote it direct from nVidia? What I didn't do was multiply the 400k units shipped and multiply it by the $125 per chip number (someone pulled from their ass) to get total revenue from G80. :laugh:

[/quote]
Listen to their Nvidia's CC. Its 400k units shipped and $50 million of revenue from G80. Thats how you get to $125 per chip. Sorry, no pulling anything from anyone's ass. Unless you are habituated to it, dunno seems like you jump the gun though. :laugh:

 

[apoppin]

:Q

 

[miniMUNCH]

This thread is hilarious...

 

[Avalon]

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: crazydingo

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

lol, where'd you quote it direct from nVidia? What I didn't do was multiply the 400k units shipped and multiply it by the $125 per chip number (someone pulled from their ass) to get total revenue from G80. :laugh:

Listen to their Nvidia's CC. Its 400k units shipped and $50 million of revenue from G80. Thats how you get to $125 per chip. Sorry, no pulling anything from anyone's ass. Unless you are habituated to it, dunno seems like you jump the gun though. :laugh:



[/quote]

This is a fun new trend. :laugh:

 

[crazydingo]

Originally posted by: Avalon

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: crazydingo

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

lol, where'd you quote it direct from nVidia? What I didn't do was multiply the 400k units shipped and multiply it by the $125 per chip number (someone pulled from their ass) to get total revenue from G80. :laugh:

Listen to their Nvidia's CC. Its 400k units shipped and $50 million of revenue from G80. Thats how you get to $125 per chip. Sorry, no pulling anything from anyone's ass. Unless you are habituated to it, dunno seems like you jump the gun though. :laugh:

This is a fun new trend. :laugh:

[/quote]
I love to put people in their place, especially those who spread FUD.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: Avalon

Originally posted by: crazydingo

Originally posted by: chizow

Originally posted by: crazydingo

I havent pulled any figure, the $50m figure I quoted for direct from Nvidia. What I didnt do was jump to conclusion like you did claiming it was $50m of profit. :laugh:

lol, where'd you quote it direct from nVidia? What I didn't do was multiply the 400k units shipped and multiply it by the $125 per chip number (someone pulled from their ass) to get total revenue from G80. :laugh:

Listen to their Nvidia's CC. Its 400k units shipped and $50 million of revenue from G80. Thats how you get to $125 per chip. Sorry, no pulling anything from anyone's ass. Unless you are habituated to it, dunno seems like you jump the gun though. :laugh:

This is a fun new trend. :laugh:

I love to put people in their place, especially those who spread FUD. [/quote]

*Strange* ... you are still with us... in video ...

... in this place

 

[Cookie Monster]

Link

- Growth led by MCP division, which had revenues up 16% and its 10th consecutive record quarter.
- $50M of GF8800 revenue; nearly 400K units shipped => $125 revenue/chip.
- ASPs were slightly down in desktop GPUs, but relatively flat everywhere else.
- Memory grew by $10M from quarter to quarter. Will hopefully decline in Q1.
- 45% margins getting close, all divisions improved margins quarter over quarter.
- 446 new employees in Q4, ended the year with 4083 employees. 1300 new employees(!) throughout the year.
- Inventory declined by $19M [which is a good thing], and is down to 65 days. Mostly decreased inventory of non-GeForce 8 GPUs.
- Revenue is expected to be down 5% due to seasonal factors in Q1; there won't be industry factors to compensate, Vista is unlikely to do any major difference in Q1.
- Going to limit headcount increases in Q1 and cost reduction, less one-time stuff, thus operating expenses should remain flat.

- GeForce 8-based products ramping or on the verge of ramping in all market segments, including notebooks, desktops, professional, GPU computing products and motherboard GPU products (integrated graphics). Apparently, the G80 IGP is on the verge of taping-out and ramping afterwards.
- Unit shipments of GeForce 8 Series GPUs are unlikely to go above those of the GeForce 7 Series until the end of the year, or even next year. Revenues will be at the break-even point much faster, though. etc

 

[Zebo]

This childish and tired "DAAMIT" phrase needs to end. First of all it wasnt a merger but AMD bought ATI so it should be called AMD. Second no one knows what the hell they mean outside super geeks.