100mm2 deficiency (lead whatever) is exactly why Hawaii can NOT fight GK110. On perf, perf/W, total heat, or heat dissipation.
- Heat and noise will be dealt with by after-market coolers.
HIS ICEQ X2 doesn't allow R9 290 to exceed 63*C.
- Performance/watt isn't a big deal in 90% of cases when you are talking about a 300 vs. 350W system or 350 vs. 400W.
- You can't run overclocked 780 + overclocked i5/i7 in mITX with a 450W PSU anyway. If you are pushing your PSU to the limit, it's not a good idea anyway. Would you run a setup that uses 450W on a 500W PSU? I doubt it.
That leaves only performance which brings us to the next point you make.
Versus unleashed GK110 all they will have is price. I thought that was almost self evident. And it's not like NV hasn't got used to fighting AMD with big cores.
And price and price/performance are 2 of of the top metrics
a lot of people look for, especially when there is such a huge price gap. If you can't spend above $400, you can't buy the 780/Titan, period. You'd have to be loaded or not care about $ at all to buy 780Ti for the rumored $649-699 vs. 2 Asus DCUII R9 290s. 780Ti might win by 18-20% vs. a single R9 290 but for that you'll pay $250-300 more? D: R9 290 CF will demolish the 780Ti in no time. I guess if you are completely price inelastic, then sure. For most people that's not a wise way to spend $ given how quickly new GPUs are released/their resale value depreciates and new price/performance levels are established.
You could even buy R9 290 and have a card fast enough for 1080P/1440P and then put that $250-300 towards a 20nm card next year. R9 290X CF beats Titan SLI by 20-40% in multi-monitor gaming which means 780Ti SLI is lucky to match it.
I have said for most of the year that 780/Titan were stop-gap cards. They were stupidly overpriced for most of the year that had no next generation games. Now a card comes out for $399 with similar performance and by end of 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to see a sale for $350-360. "Future-proofing" with 780/Titan by paying the early adopter premium for this level of performance proved to be a serious waste of time for gaming. Let's not forget that R9 290 also throws in 4GB of VRAM for free.
770 4GB/780/Titan proved to be some of the worst priced NV GPUs made in the last 5 years. HD7970GE/R9 280X made all of them look very overpriced but now R9 290 after-market cards will put a nail in the coffin unless NV continues the holiday bundle, releases a faster 780 Ghz at $449 or drops prices on after-market 780s by about $70-100.
NV's lead up to now accounted for little when $650-1000 cards targeted <5% of PC gamers. AMD's card at $399 brings this performance to a much larger PC gamer userbase. NV has a PR nightmare in the making because it's obvious they were ripping off PC gamers by about $250 USD.
NV was not like this in the past. GeForce Ti 4200, 6800 NU unlock, 6800GT, 7950GT, 8800GT, the awesome GTX460 1GB, undercutting 7970 by $50 with a faster 680. Now, NV is just blatantly trying to justify its "premium" branding rather than catering to the PC enthusiast with reasonable prices. Thus, we have 1 company that thinks a given level of performance was worth $650 and another that says Nah, a more fair price is $400. Why would anyone continue to support the former firm unless it goes back to what it used to be? Sure, NV had very expensive cards like 6800 UE or 8800GTX Ultra but almost always they had a sweet spot card. Right now? It's hard to make a strong case for anything they sell on the desktop.
760 is also overpriced. 4GB versions are going for $300 but
$280-300 R9 280X/HD7970GE OC owns the 760 OC in benchmarks.