Hi,
Yes (as has already been mentioned) it is just a question of supply and demand.
However:
There are three main price factors, not just two
RAM is far more of a commodity, and demand is much more price senstive compared to other PC component products.
The three price factors are:
1. The seasonal variation in demand that have already been mentioned
2. The cyclic variation in supply caused by the time taken to build a RAM fabrication unit (abut 2 years)
3. The long term reduction in prices caused by improved technology
RAM is a "commodity" in two important senses.
1. You can choose how much to buy - when prices are low people buy more RAM in new machines and are more likely to upgrade an old machine. Based on my clients' choices I'd say this could increase purchase volume by upto 50%.
2. There is little proprietory technology in RAM, compared to (say) a CPU, Graphics Processor or Motherboard Chipset. Almost anybody (with enough money) can build a RAM fabrication unit.
By contrast, only Intel and AMD can make (their own) CPUs etc.
Sales of new (or replacement) computers are much less voatlile because the total price of a PC is composed of many different components and hence is much more stable. You ofen have little choice about when you buy a computer (apart from the enthusiast sector); so demand is also much more stable when you look at total PCs. And you have to buy just one CPU, one Mobo, One Graphics card etc. for each machine - in no other components do you see anything to compare with the 1GB 2GB 4GB choice.
So there you have it:
RAM is a commodity with a number of manufacturers competing for market share
Production capability is capital intenstive with a long lead time
High levels of automation amd high capital costs probably mean the production capability of a Fabrication Unit is very inflexible
New tecnology delivering cost and performance benefits makes older Fabrication Units redundant, but also provides some price sensitivity on the Supply side
Demand is price sensitive
Demand for specific types of RAM is subject to dramatic variations as new technology is introduced.
If the Price of RAM were stable - that would be truely amazing.
Peter