Ramifications if Tesla takes the L and goes away...

[Red Squirrel]

I hope they don't go away. At least not until an EV market gets established. I would really like to see EVs actually take off. I just can't afford to pay the "new car price" so I'm just waiting/hoping they end up on the used market for like 5-10k. Still too early for any used market to really establish itself though. Maybe down south, but not here.

People are concerned about how well they might perform here though, but I'd be willing to chance it, I think it would be fine as long as there's a battery heater, and pretty sure most do have that. People also worry so much about range but most of them can do over 100km now. How often do you really need to drive that much in one go? I'd probably use the 120v outlet half the time and just plug it in at home and at work to top it up. Heck it would be interesting to also have a plug that is fed by my shed's solar system. If there is a way to regulate the charge down to like 100-200w so I'm well below the solar's input power it would basically charge for free in summer especially when I'm on night shift and it's sitting in the driveway for 12 hours.

 

[drnickriviera]

Heck it would be interesting to also have a plug that is fed by my shed's solar system. If there is a way to regulate the charge down to like 100-200w so I'm well below the solar's input power it would basically charge for free in summer especially when I'm on night shift and it's sitting in the driveway for 12 hours.

The open energy monitor people have a way to connect to the open evse unit and power it in a solar divert mode. It is supposed to dynamically adjust charge off excess solar production

 

[ultimatebob]

It will happen in the US.

I'm sure it will, eventually. 20 years seems a bit optimistic, though. I'd imagine that most new vehicles will be some variation of an electric powered crossover with some sort of self-driving capability by then, but you'll still have some people who want their sports car or pickup truck with a gas engine.

I mean, look at manual transmissions. Everybody knows that newer automatic transmissions can shift faster than an manual, but some people just prefer shifting themselves. I'd imagine that you'll have a similar "screw that boring electric auto driving bullshit, I want a gas powered manual drive car" mentality as well.

 

[Greenman]

Range isn't as big an issue as people make it out to be.

Anyway, maybe they can replace half the battery capacity with a bank of standardized modules that can be rapidly (and robotically) swapped at a station. The vehicle could draw from just a couple modules at a time when you're not driving aggressively. Then you'd only need to swap those partially-drained modules at the station (like topping-off a gas tank).

Range is an enormous issue when it takes several hours to fill up.

 

[Ichinisan]

Unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology within the next 20 years that dramatically lowers the cost or greatly extends the range of them, I doubt it.

Range isn't as big an issue as people make it out to be.

Anyway, maybe they can replace half the battery capacity with a bank of standardized modules that can be rapidly (and robotically) swapped at a station. The vehicle could draw from just a couple modules at a time when you're not driving aggressively. Then you'd only need to swap those partially-drained modules at the station (like topping-off a gas tank).

Range is an enormous issue when it takes several hours to fill up.

That's why my post is more than 1 sentence long. Changing modules could be far faster than even a gas fill-up.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Range is an enormous issue when it takes several hours to fill up.

How much is several hours? As long as it's less then the time the car is parked at home after work it has all night to charge. And it's not like you're going to drain the battery every time you use it.

Of course there is also the supercharger stations that take like 10 minutes but I imagine using those a lot is hard on the battery. But if you only do it once in a while like when you travel out of town then you can probably just attribute it to regular wear and tear.

 

[K1052]

Range is an enormous issue when it takes several hours to fill up.

A 50kW DC charger gets my i3 to 80% SOC in a little more than 20 minutes and it's considered behind the times now that 150kW getting adopted more broadly. 350 kW is coming as well.

 

[drnickriviera]

I mean, look at manual transmissions. Everybody knows that newer automatic transmissions can shift faster than an manual, but some people just prefer shifting themselves. I'd imagine that you'll have a similar "screw that boring electric auto driving bullshit, I want a gas powered manual drive car" mentality as well.

My brother was in the diehard manual crowd until he got his leaf. He said he wont go back to ICE. Instant torque, smooth acceleration and quiet. Pretty hard to say no to those

 

[Greenman]

Look at the base Tesla, under a hundred mile range. That's enough for

My brother was in the diehard manual crowd until he got his leaf. He said he wont go back to ICE. Instant torque, smooth acceleration and quiet. Pretty hard to say no to those

Electrics are pure torque, and pure fun. They just need to go farther and cost less.

Back on topic. It seems like the expectations for Tesla were set by Musk, and greatly exaggerated. Be a shame to see them go under because they couldn't grow fast enough.

 

[Ichinisan]

Look at the base Tesla, under a hundred mile range. That's enough for

...

???

 

[zinfamous]

I could see it happening in the EU, but not so much in the US. I'd imagine that the next Democratic president will try to pass 60 MPG fleet mileage standards (again), and the next Republican president after that will repeal those standards (again).

It doesn't matter who passes what. The industry is doing it anyway.

Not sure if you've noticed or not, but the industry hasn't really moved at all towards adopting Trump's regressive, expensive, wasteful, bullshit "ideas" to repeal the black man's work. They don't care about the president right now. The money and labor is already invested.

 

[zinfamous]

Look at the base Tesla, under a hundred mile range. That's enough for

where did you read that? Are you talking about the first gen Tesla that would get ~30 minutes if you floored it for all of those 30 minutes, uphill all the way?

No idea what the fuck you are smoking otherwise.

 

[Red Squirrel]

100 miles comes up to 160km. TBH that's more than enough for a daily driver. Take battery degradation into account and running the heater (which is most of the year) and say it drops down to half, which would be 80km. That's still enough to make it to work, errands, visit family etc. And think that's worse case scenario as lot of EVs have ranges that are several 100's of km. I think one of the higher end Teslas can do 400. From where I live that's half way to Toronto. Most of the time you end up stopping for food anyway, so in a world where EVs are the norm, lot of highway restaurants and truck stops would probably fast chargers. With a gas car you'd probably stop for gas too anyway. Right now it would probably not be wise to drive to Toronto in an EV especially if you get stuck in rush hour traffic but I think as the tech progresses, it's not that far out of reach.

 

[zinfamous]

100 miles comes up to 160km. TBH that's more than enough for a daily driver. Take battery degradation into account and running the heater (which is most of the year) and say it drops down to half, which would be 80km. That's still enough to make it to work, errands, visit family etc. And think that's worse case scenario as lot of EVs have ranges that are several 100's of km. I think one of the higher end Teslas can do 400. From where I live that's half way to Toronto. Most of the time you end up stopping for food anyway, so in a world where EVs are the norm, lot of highway restaurants and truck stops would probably fast chargers. With a gas car you'd probably stop for gas too anyway. Right now it would probably not be wise to drive to Toronto in an EV especially if you get stuck in rush hour traffic but I think as the tech progresses, it's not that far out of reach.

and yet it's still patently untrue. The base model gets around 220 miles/charge, I believe.

 

[Red Squirrel]

and yet it's still patently untrue. The base model gets around 220 miles/charge, I believe.

Oh wow did not realize they were that high now. That's 354km. (wish car stuff used metric it would save doing conversions all the time. ) And if that's just the base model then I imagine the others go even further. so yeah, I really don't get the range concern if it's that high. Don't even have to plug it in every day.

 

[Greenman]

???

Don't know what happened there.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I noticed the forum randomly remembers old stuff that you typed but didn't post, and just prepends it to a new post sometimes. Kinda annoying. So like if you typed something and changed your mind, it will submit it next time you make a post if you don't catch it.

 

[alcoholbob]

But the irony is that Elon thinks his company will one day be worth $500B. So it's more likely that he would ultimately panic sell for $8B than it is for him to take a reasonable offer like $50B (anything larger than that and you have very few available suitors, esp. once a recession hits). I'd argue that only Toyota, GM and VW group have the size to acquire Tesla straight up. But GM is furiously belt-tightening and VW group absorbed massive financial sanctions from Dieselgate.

I definitely see that as the most likely outcome, Tesla stock will probably continue to slide and Elon will panic sell. He's a good engineer but really has no idea how to run a company or even what basic custom service/follow up is. And he's filled the entire board with family and friends so basically he's in a management bubble with no checks and balances. I work in a company like that and basically you see management keep doubling down on bad ideas until the shit hits the fan and they have to make some emergency fixes from self-inflicted wounds.

 

[ultimatebob]

It doesn't matter who passes what. The industry is doing it anyway.

Not sure if you've noticed or not, but the industry hasn't really moved at all towards adopting Trump's regressive, expensive, wasteful, bullshit "ideas" to repeal the black man's work. They don't care about the president right now. The money and labor is already invested.

To be honest, it seemed like most of the auto industry wasn't moving all that fast to meet the "black man's" CAFE fuel mileage standards even when he was in office, mostly because they knew that they were impossible to achieve without converting most of their product line over to hybrids and electric cars by 2025. Instead, they were building the minimum required percentage of hybrid and electric cars required by law at the time.

Don't forget... for every auto engineer working on the next Tesla Model 3, there is still another engineer working on the next 12 MPG Dodge Hellcat

I feel pretty confident that I'll be able to go to my local dealership and buy a new gas powered vehicle in 2039. Feel free to quote me on that, just in case Anandtech Forums is still around then

 

[ImpulsE69]

100 miles comes up to 160km. TBH that's more than enough for a daily driver. Take battery degradation into account and running the heater (which is most of the year) and say it drops down to half, which would be 80km. That's still enough to make it to work, errands, visit family etc. And think that's worse case scenario as lot of EVs have ranges that are several 100's of km. I think one of the higher end Teslas can do 400. From where I live that's half way to Toronto. Most of the time you end up stopping for food anyway, so in a world where EVs are the norm, lot of highway restaurants and truck stops would probably fast chargers. With a gas car you'd probably stop for gas too anyway. Right now it would probably not be wise to drive to Toronto in an EV especially if you get stuck in rush hour traffic but I think as the tech progresses, it's not that far out of reach.

You need to start thinking globally. 100m is an average just for work (50 both ways) for many people. Infrastructure and speed are going to be very key.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Tesla is a zero dollar stock within 3 years. Shareholders will get the shaft someone will get the scraps. If I was Apple I would wait till they go bankrupt and then get the pieces for pennies on the dollar. Only a fool will pay top dollar for a money losing company.

 

[Red Squirrel]

You need to start thinking globally. 100m is an average just for work (50 both ways) for many people. Infrastructure and speed are going to be very key.

For such a short distance I'd probably just walk tbh. Guessing you meant 100km. If yes, that's just insane. Can't imagine being that far from work. I would try to find a job that's closer. What a waste of life you'll never get back, and which you don't get paid for. An 8 hour day turns into a 10 hour day, and you can't go home for lunch.

 

[Ichinisan]

Look at the base Tesla, under a hundred mile range. That's enough for
...

100 miles comes up to 160km. TBH that's more than enough for a daily driver. Take battery degradation into account and running the heater (which is most of the year) and say it drops down to half, which would be 80km. That's still enough to make it to work, errands, visit family etc. And think that's worse case scenario as lot of EVs have ranges that are several 100's of km. I think one of the higher end Teslas can do 400. From where I live that's half way to Toronto. Most of the time you end up stopping for food anyway, so in a world where EVs are the norm, lot of highway restaurants and truck stops would probably fast chargers. With a gas car you'd probably stop for gas too anyway. Right now it would probably not be wise to drive to Toronto in an EV especially if you get stuck in rush hour traffic but I think as the tech progresses, it's not that far out of reach.

You need to start thinking globally. 100m is an average just for work (50 both ways) for many people. Infrastructure and speed are going to be very key.

For such a short distance I'd probably just walk tbh. Guessing you meant 100km. If yes, that's just insane. Can't imagine being that far from work. I would try to find a job that's closer. What a waste of life you'll never get back, and which you don't get paid for. An 8 hour day turns into a 10 hour day, and you can't go home for lunch.

He means "100 miles."

 

[Red Squirrel]

Do people seriously drive that far from home every day?! That seems completely insane and inefficient to me. I would rather put a gun to my head than do that.

And I get annoyed when there is slow traffic and it takes me more than 5 minutes to get to work.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Do people seriously drive that far from home every day?! That seems completely insane and inefficient to me. I would rather put a gun to my head than do that.

And I get annoyed when there is slow traffic and it takes me more than 5 minutes to get to work.

50 one way, not 100, but yes, it is very common. Many people prefer not to live in CA, NY, or FL. mmon.