Ramifications if Tesla takes the L and goes away...

[Codewiz]

I own a Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD. My wife drives a '18 Subaru Impreza Wagon. We have a deposit down for a Tesla Model Y.

During the fall, we make road trips every weekend for football games. Range is not an issue. In a gas vehicle in past years, it takes us 4 hours (if we don't stop to eat) to make the trip. With my model 3 and charging, it takes 4 hours and 50 minutes.

So a total of 50 minutes added to my travel time. Now we plan our stops around eating.

Will Tesla survive? Who knows, cars are hard. The market is REALLY hard. And if the economy shits the bed, it could sink Tesla.

But when it comes to EV vs gas cars, gas cars are stupid. I refuse to drive my wife's car. It is hard to explain but everything about gas powered cars are just stupid once you drive a Tesla.

 

[BudAshes]

I don't think Tesla is going anywhere despite the crazy stuff Musk says. Trump is still here...
Tesla's are amazing vehicles that have pushed car manufacturers to keep up and innovate. That being said I still own a gas guzzling suv for an off road/snow vehicle and my commuter is a company car, but if I was paying for my own commute I'd be all over a Tesla.

 

[Codewiz]

I don't think Tesla is going anywhere despite the crazy stuff Musk says. Trump is still here...
Tesla's are amazing vehicles that have pushed car manufacturers to keep up and innovate. That being said I still own a gas guzzling suv for an off road/snow vehicle and my commuter is a company car, but if I was paying for my own commute I'd be all over a Tesla.

I told my wife the only thing that would get me to trade in my model 3 will be a Tesla truck.

 

[manly]

Fracking gets petroleum / crude oil that can be refined into gasoline? I thought it produces natural gas / methane or whatever.

Fracking in the Bakken Formation produces crude oil, which is why the U.S. is again a top oil producer. I'm not sure about the Alberta oil sands.

In North Dakota, a LOT of natural gas is a byproduct of fracking. Little known is that more natural gas is produced than can be stored/transported to a market for it. So what happens is that excess natural gas is simply burned off. There are regulations intended to penalize the producers who continue doing this, but the govt has shown little interest in enforcement.

Yeah... they did the same thing in the US. In theory, you can order a "$35,000" Model 3 if you contact Tesla directly, but who knows when it will actually ship. The real car starts at $39,900, and goes past $50,000 quickly once you get the options most Tesla owners actually want like extended range and self-driving.

The U.S. situation is different from Canada. In the U.S. I'd assert that Tesla is interested in selling the $35,400 Standard range model, but they cannot currently do so profitably. They have multiple tens of thousands of reservations (and most likely 6 figures) from consumers willing to buy the base model. Because of economics, Tesla currently only wants to sell $39k+ models but if they ever significantly improve their efficiency, I'm certain they'd love to sell as many cars as possible.

The Canadian $45k CAD base model was created solely to game the subsidy system; they have zero intention of selling it. To illustrate this, they gimped the range to 150km (93 miles). In the U.S. I'm pretty sure you can pay the small $2k upcharge to unlock features from the base to the SR+ model. In Canada, I think they expressly said they won't allow this (again to discourage anybody from considering buying the lowest cost model).

My understanding is that the reason the used higher mileage Nissan Leafs are so cheap is because the replacement battery for them is rather expensive.

I wonder if someone will do a cheaper OEM replacement battery for them at some point.

The older Leafs did not actively cool the batteries, which contributed to their heavy depreciation. Nissan claims that few customers have experienced significant battery degradation, and I'm sure there are some high-mileage examples out in the wild. But yes, you can get a used Leaf for cheap because we don't really know how well the batteries hold up long term, and because they have fairly limited range to begin with.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Did they at least heat the batteries at least? If not I could see that being an issue too. Lithium Ion batteries really don't like the cold. I think they can even be damaged if you try to charge or discharge them when they're cold.

I looked for fun and no Leafs for sale within 500km of me though. I like to look for fun, I'm kinda due for a new car, but I can probably get at least a couple more years out of my current one so not really in a hurry. But if I did get an EV I would just keep my current car for a while until the EV has proven itself to work ok for me.

 

[Hugo Drax]

I imagine that, more than the cars, the massive delay to their solar shingles really stings. That's the sort of the tech that, if actually physical and installable ~2 years ago when they promised it, could have really made a splash.

The whole Solarcity story was a big scam, he enriched himself and others at the expense of Tesla and its shareholders. Once that happened I knew Tesla was doomed.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Actually that seems to be an odd thing in general with the solar industry. Big promises, no product delivery. Like even standard panels. So many websites talk about how great their product is, with absolutely no way to buy.

 

[rh71]

I own a Tesla Model 3 Long Range RWD. My wife drives a '18 Subaru Impreza Wagon. We have a deposit down for a Tesla Model Y.

During the fall, we make road trips every weekend for football games. Range is not an issue. In a gas vehicle in past years, it takes us 4 hours (if we don't stop to eat) to make the trip. With my model 3 and charging, it takes 4 hours and 50 minutes.

So a total of 50 minutes added to my travel time. Now we plan our stops around eating.

Will Tesla survive? Who knows, cars are hard. The market is REALLY hard. And if the economy shits the bed, it could sink Tesla.

But when it comes to EV vs gas cars, gas cars are stupid. I refuse to drive my wife's car. It is hard to explain but everything about gas powered cars are just stupid once you drive a Tesla.

In contrast, we travel a lot up and down the northeast for my kids' hockey. We would never fit in a Model 3. As a matter of fact, we borrow my mom's minivan over my mid-size SUV on the longer trips so that we're extra comfortable. So now you have a larger vehicle which will require more charging, which would mean a much longer trip. If it's just 2 or 3 of you, sure it would be satisfactory but you are giving up some things too.

I don't really see them being practical for family road trips at all. I would totally get one for around-town errands and 30 minute commutes though. I hate driving my heavier SUV for local roads. I end up driving my wife's $22k Sonata a lot around town. $35k would be on the higher end of what we'd like to spend for that purpose. The extra cost (for a smaller sedan no less) just isn't worth any benefit.

 

[drnickriviera]

You don't see them as practical now, but the charging/battery tech is getting better. With Ultra capacitors and 300kw charging, charging would merely be a pit stop. People also need to remember the vehicle can be on while charging, so you can have internet and climate control. Go to the bathroom, watch a youtube vid and be on your way.

I think many are expecting way too much from EVs. We have to remember that it was less than 9 years ago that the first mass market EV was released. That's not a lot of time. If i'm not forgetting one, there are only 5 EVs that are available nationwide (Bolt, Leaf and 3 Teslas, maybe the i3??) We need more time for more models, more charging station.

I do find it sad that the commercial side of evs is so slow. Seattle took possession of the first electric garbage truck in America and it had to come from China. Why dont we have electric postal trucks, delivery trucks? They know exactly how far the go each day with lots of stops. Perfect application for ev. I think that's where the ev push should have started, not in passenger cars

 

[Red Squirrel]

The part I do like is charging at home. Any time you leave your house you always have a fully charged car ready to go, not that going to a gas station is that huge a deal, but it's one less errand to worry about.

I just like to imagine how far battery tech would be if all the subsidies that go towards oil would go towards R&D for battery tech instead. I don't think lithium ion is the end all be all, there's probably something better, we just need to invent it. The real deal is when we find a battery tech that is higher density than fuel. Ex: a battery pack the size of a gas tank that can yield more energy. EV heavy equipment and buses and other larger vehicles is what will really be a game changer climate wise. Even boats. Container ships pollute more on one voyage than every car in the north America does in a year. Or something like that, I forget what the stat is.

 

[Codewiz]

In contrast, we travel a lot up and down the northeast for my kids' hockey. We would never fit in a Model 3. As a matter of fact, we borrow my mom's minivan over my mid-size SUV on the longer trips so that we're extra comfortable. So now you have a larger vehicle which will require more charging, which would mean a much longer trip. If it's just 2 or 3 of you, sure it would be satisfactory but you are giving up some things too.

I don't really see them being practical for family road trips at all. I would totally get one for around-town errands and 30 minute commutes though. I hate driving my heavier SUV for local roads. I end up driving my wife's $22k Sonata a lot around town. $35k would be on the higher end of what we'd like to spend for that purpose. The extra cost (for a smaller sedan no less) just isn't worth any benefit.

Really depends on what you need.

I have two kids. 6 and 10. We do road trips all the time in the Model 3 no issues.

We do have a Model Y on reservation purely because my wife wants to sit higher up. Otherwise she would already have a model 3.

I am not trying to argue you are wrong. Everyone prioritizes different things. I don't see the "need" for minivans unless you have more than 2 kids. Again I am not attacking you but most of the SUVs I see on the road are more about status symbol than need. Same with most trucks. My father in law actually uses a truck. 99.9% of the trucks I see on the road aren't being used for "truck work". It is a status thing.

So yeah, I have two kids, we can fit a HUGE amount of cargo in the trunk of my model 3. My kids have plenty of room in the back seat of the model 3. Adults fit just fine in the back of a model 3.

To give you an idea of road trips we have done. We do a cruise every Christmas. We drive between 9-12 hours in a car down to florida. We have no issue fitting our 3 suitcases and all our crap for 2 adults and 2 kids into the model 3 for the trips. Enough stuff for 7+ days of vacation. And to be honest, I never want to drive anything else for more than just around town.

I can drive 5 hours in my Tesla and feel more refreshed than driving my wife's subaru for 30 minutes. Because at the end of the day, my stress levels are so much lower in the Tesla.

 

[rh71]

^ There's 2 common schools of thought. The minimalistic and the practical. When it's time to make a 1-time purchase of something $20k+, most practical people will pick a larger vehicle because it can accommodate more situations. Maybe in the 90s, a $30k fancy new-style SUV was a status symbol. Nowadays they're everywhere and can be had for $20k. It's more about practicality when one decides an SUV over a sedan.

The minimalist will likely decide based on cost and savings (gas). But they will also have to go through the trouble of borrowing/renting another vehicle when bigger jobs arise. If I ever got rid of my SUV, I can basically forget about hauling stuff from Home Depot home (like the 6-burner grill or 10 bags of mulch we just did). Or hitting the park / bike paths / road trips with our 4 bikes.

 

[Kaido]

^ There's 2 common schools of thought. The minimalistic and the practical. When it's time to make a 1-time purchase of something $20k+, most practical people will pick a larger vehicle because it can accommodate more situations. Maybe in the 90s, a $30k fancy new-style SUV was a status symbol. Nowadays they're everywhere and can be had for $20k. It's more about practicality when one decides an SUV over a sedan.

The minimalist will likely decide based on cost and savings (gas). But they will also have to go through the trouble of borrowing/renting another vehicle when bigger jobs arise. If I ever got rid of my SUV, I can basically forget about hauling stuff from Home Depot home (like the 6-burner grill or 10 bags of mulch we just did). Or hitting the park / bike paths / road trips with our 4 bikes.

Just curious, have you test-driven a Model 3 yet? I was amazed at how much crap you can fit in that thing!

But yeah...I mean, my vehicle holds squat. I have to rent a truck from Home Depot to do any sort of projects that require hauling semi-large items. I can clean out my wife's Forester, but the car seats are a super major pain to put back in...it's easier just to snag the $19.99 Home Depot van for an hour, and then I don't have to have stuff hanging out the back of the hatch lol.

 

[PianoMan]

For daily drivers, u can’t beat an electric car. With range anxiety all but obsolete (in-and-around town), the ease of charging and driving makes my wife consider she will never go back to ICE. Couple that with minimal maintenance (no oil changes, significantly less things to break, etc.), I fully support it.

But for weekend cars, the line is a bit more broad. I miss rowing when driving my wife’s car (not in traffic, though!), not to mention, there’s something to be said about the cacophony of sound from a powerful, high-revving combustion engine. So I prefer ICE’s to a mountain run; and no - never bring an EV to a track. Maybe a drag race, but not an extended, technical race course.

So I also believe EVs are the future, as is, sadly enough - the phasing out of manual transmissions by everyone except a few die hards (Italian exotic car-makers, where art thou?!?). But there is a market, albeit dwindling - for loud, inefficient, and manually-intensive ICE cars. I count myself solidly straddling both...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[JSt0rm]

Its gonna be hard for tesla to compete in the actual car space. Like no car maker cars what you are doing at 120,000 per car. They literally dont care. When they do care is when you are making a car for 35k. Volkswagon could make teslas entire yearly demand in a week.

 

[Codewiz]

^ There's 2 common schools of thought. The minimalistic and the practical. When it's time to make a 1-time purchase of something $20k+, most practical people will pick a larger vehicle because it can accommodate more situations. Maybe in the 90s, a $30k fancy new-style SUV was a status symbol. Nowadays they're everywhere and can be had for $20k. It's more about practicality when one decides an SUV over a sedan.

The minimalist will likely decide based on cost and savings (gas). But they will also have to go through the trouble of borrowing/renting another vehicle when bigger jobs arise. If I ever got rid of my SUV, I can basically forget about hauling stuff from Home Depot home (like the 6-burner grill or 10 bags of mulch we just did). Or hitting the park / bike paths / road trips with our 4 bikes.

I have a cargo carrier that I purchased when we used to have a Volkswagen Jetta Sportswagen TDI. Used it mostly for camping. Haven't had a reason to put it on my Model 3 yet.

Yes, if I needed 8ft sections of drywall, yes, I would need a truck. But that same would be said of a SUV or minivan. They don't solve those problems. And when I do need stuff like that, I drive up to lowes and rent the $19 truck that gets me 90 minutes.

My wife and I are far from minimalists. The ONE thing that my wife's car can do that my Model 3 can't do is carry our dogs in the back. If we need to go on a trip with our two kids and our two bulldogs, it is easier for us to go in the Subaru because we can put the dogs in the back. I also don't mind not putting the dogs in the back seat of my car.

And again, when the model Y hits the streets, that problem goes away.

 

[Codewiz]

[QUOTE="JSt0rm, post: 39848428, member: 28989" ]^ Volkswagon could make teslas entire yearly demand in a week.[/QUOTE]

With what batteries? Hyundai makes a compelling electric EV. Guess what? They have no supply of the needed batteries. That is the key thing most people seem to ignore when they say that Honda, Audi, VW, or any other car manufacturer can eat Tesla's lunch anytime they decide......

With what batteries. Show me their manufacturing capabilities for battery packs. That shit is hard. It is why Audi's SUV is doomed right from the start. Gets the same range as a 2012 Tesla Model S. Aka shit. People love to talk about range anxiety, then turn around and praise Audi for their electric vehicle. Talk about range anxiety. You don't get shit for range AND you don't have hardly any fast charging capability.

But yes, I will be happy to see COMPETITION in the market place. Because more competition means better selection of cars. More choices. All good things for consumers. But right now, there are ZERO real competitors to Tesla in the EV space. That includes the Audi E-tron. Why do you need 200 miles of range if you can't even possibly go on a road trip which is exactly the case currently.

I can drive ANYWHERE in my Tesla with a reasonable amount of time charging.

 

[JSt0rm]

[QUOTE="JSt0rm, post: 39848428, member: 28989" ]^ Volkswagon could make teslas entire yearly demand in a week.

With what batteries? Hyundai makes a compelling electric EV. Guess what? They have no supply of the needed batteries. That is the key thing most people seem to ignore when they say that Honda, Audi, VW, or any other car manufacturer can eat Tesla's lunch anytime they decide......

With what batteries. Show me their manufacturing capabilities for battery packs. That shit is hard. It is why Audi's SUV is doomed right from the start. Gets the same range as a 2012 Tesla Model S. Aka shit. People love to talk about range anxiety, then turn around and praise Audi for their electric vehicle. Talk about range anxiety. You don't get shit for range AND you don't have hardly any fast charging capability.

But yes, I will be happy to see COMPETITION in the market place. Because more competition means better selection of cars. More choices. All good things for consumers. But right now, there are ZERO real competitors to Tesla in the EV space. That includes the Audi E-tron. Why do you need 200 miles of range if you can't even possibly go on a road trip which is exactly the case currently.

I can drive ANYWHERE in my Tesla with a reasonable amount of time charging.

My point is vw's manufacturing ability is giant. Once they ramp up the economy of scale the screws will be put to Tesla.

I have an i3. 80 miles range. Its a perfect city car and the build quality is so far beyond teslas build quality its in a different universe.

 

[Codewiz]

My point is vw's manufacturing ability is giant. Once they ramp up the economy of scale the screws will be put to Tesla.

I have an i3. 80 miles range. Its a perfect city car and the build quality is so far beyond teslas build quality its in a different universe.

I have been hearing this same talking point for 3 years.

My mother in law drives a 2016 Mercedes e-class sedan. It is not far beyond Tesla in build quality. It isn't in a different universe. You can argue whether you want buttons galore or not. You can argue the minimalist design of the model 3. You can bring up that Tesla HAS had build quality issues. They have. But most of those issues are overblown at this point.

I would argue 80 mile range on your i3 is just as useful as a 200 mile range of the Audi E-Tron because the Audi can't do roadtrips so why do you need that range.

But if I were buying a car to just get around town, I would buy a used Nissan Leaf. They can be had for $12K and can do everything your i3 can do.

I wanted a car that serves my purpose locally and on road trips. And when driving up to football games in the fall, my car can do 95% of the driving. I am not shitting you, 95% of the driving. I keep my hand on the wheel and I pay attention to what other drivers are doing but my car changes lanes. It accelerates to pass people, and gets over for merging people. I don't have to do anything for most of my drive besides pay attention to the road.

 

[JSt0rm]

I have been hearing this same talking point for 3 years.

My mother in law drives a 2016 Mercedes e-class sedan. It is not far beyond Tesla in build quality. It isn't in a different universe. You can argue whether you want buttons galore or not. You can argue the minimalist design of the model 3. You can bring up that Tesla HAS had build quality issues. They have. But most of those issues are overblown at this point.

I would argue 80 mile range on your i3 is just as useful as a 200 mile range of the Audi E-Tron because the Audi can't do roadtrips so why do you need that range.

But if I were buying a car to just get around town, I would buy a used Nissan Leaf. They can be had for $12K and can do everything your i3 can do.

I wanted a car that serves my purpose locally and on road trips. And when driving up to football games in the fall, my car can do 95% of the driving. I am not shitting you, 95% of the driving. I keep my hand on the wheel and I pay attention to what other drivers are doing but my car changes lanes. It accelerates to pass people, and gets over for merging people. I don't have to do anything for most of my drive besides pay attention to the road.

sounds like you are trying to convince yourself you made the right choice. If you like a car you buy it. Who cares.

However tesla needs to welcome the 150 years of auto manufacturing prowess and add that to their amazing tech leaps. If they dont big big companies are going to drink their milkshake.

 

[JSt0rm]

also the i3 luxury features and materials destroy the leaf. Its really a perfect vehicle for its use case.

 

[BudAshes]

also the i3 luxury features and materials destroy the leaf. Its really a perfect vehicle for its use case.

Even the leaf looks cooler than the hideous i3. It's BMW's version of the Pontiac Aztec.

 

[Codewiz]

sounds like you are trying to convince yourself you made the right choice. If you like a car you buy it. Who cares.

However tesla needs to welcome the 150 years of auto manufacturing prowess and add that to their amazing tech leaps. If they dont big big companies are going to drink their milkshake.

Not trying to convince myself or you of anything. If I wasn't 100% sure, I wouldn't have put a deposit down on a Model Y for my wife.

also the i3 luxury features and materials destroy the leaf. Its really a perfect vehicle for its use case.

I won't argue about materials of a leaf vs a i3. And I am not familar enough with the i3 features. But I personally would have issues spending the money on a i3 for around town commutes because I would never put enough miles on it to justify the price in MY mind. Hell, I did really spend a lot of time trying to justify the same for my Model 3. It was by far the most expensive car I have ever purchased. The only thing remotely close was my VW sportswagen at $35K. Which we planned to drive into the ground until Dieselgate happened.

Then I have also put 25K miles on my model 3 since August. And I don't have a daily commute either way. Most of my miles are highway miles for trips.

 

[JSt0rm]

Even the leaf looks cooler than the hideous i3. It's BMW's version of the Pontiac Aztec.

Its a weird looking car for sure but it kinda grows on you. As I said its a perfect city car.

 

[JSt0rm]

Not trying to convince myself or you of anything. If I wasn't 100% sure, I wouldn't have put a deposit down on a Model Y for my wife.



I won't argue about materials of a leaf vs a i3. And I am not familar enough with the i3 features. But I personally would have issues spending the money on a i3 for around town commutes because I would never put enough miles on it to justify the price in MY mind. Hell, I did really spend a lot of time trying to justify the same for my Model 3. It was by far the most expensive car I have ever purchased. The only thing remotely close was my VW sportswagen at $35K. Which we planned to drive into the ground until Dieselgate happened.

Then I have also put 25K miles on my model 3 since August. And I don't have a daily commute either way. Most of my miles are highway miles for trips.

look at used i3 prices. I got mine fully maxed options with 7000 miles for 14k. Seems to be an incredible deal.