Rassmussen vs Nate Silver

[buckshot24]

It's meaningless. Not only is it less predictive than looking at the state results that come out at the same time, it confuses people into drawing conclusions that are usually invalid.

And to top it off, what people call the "national popular vote" really isn't an accurate representation of what that would really be in an election conducted on that basis.

Ok if one candidate wins by 10 points in the national popular vote we can't draw any conclusions as to their likelihood of winning the Electoral College? How about 5 points?

For your statement to be true the answers to these two questions would have to be no. They aren't no.

The lower the national vote margin is the less correlation to EC vote winner there is, of course, but to say it is meaningless is fucking stupid.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Ok if one candidate wins by 10 points in the national popular vote we can't draw any conclusions as to their likelihood of winning the Electoral College?

Have you ever even watched an election come in before? Any race that lop-sided will be called based on individual state results hours before even an approximation of the total PV numbers is known.

 

[buckshot24]

Have you ever even watched an election come in before? Any race that lop-sided will be called based on individual state results hours before even an approximation of the total PV numbers is known.

Yeah, if the national polls were saying 10 point win (nationally) one way or the other you know that person will win the EC without looking at a single state poll. ie. the national polls are not meaningless.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Yeah, if the national polls were saying 10 point win (nationally) one way or the other ...

... the state polls would be indicating a win so strongly that the national poll would be unnecessary.

And we were talking about the returns, not the polls.

 

[buckshot24]

... the state polls would be indicating a win so strongly that the national poll would be unnecessary.

And we were talking about the returns, not the polls.

Oh shit, sorry. Carry on.

 

[HomerJS]

Fox News now admitting all the polls showing advantage to Obama were right. Waiting for final numbers but not looking good for Rassmussen

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I hope this election FINALLY puts Rasmussen out to pasture where he belongs.

 

[OrByte]

Nate Silver owns.

 

[Phokus]

Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.

 

[SP33Demon]

Nate's model > *, that is all. Fivethirtyeight for the MF win.

 

[Abraxas]

So, what are the odds Nate Silver will extend to Rasmussen the same offer Colbert did to Trump?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Just waiting for the election results to be unskewed...

 

[Ryan]

Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.

Exactly - he called the entire race, and will usher in a new era of polling analysis for the next set of elections. Every network will be scrambling to hire more statisticians to compile voting trends......

 

[buckshot24]

Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.

 

[Phokus]

Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.

Hahahahaha bow down before him bitch.

 

[blankslate]

Nate Silver is going to be a god. SHIT FOR BRAINS republicans now need to shut the fuck up about him.

Lol poor Joe Scarborough. guess he is going to need some Johnny Walker Blue label to get over it.

 

[blankslate]

Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.

A bean counter who actually knows how to count beans is better than a partisan fvck.

 

[buckshot24]

A bean counter who actually knows how to count beans is better than a partisan fvck.

A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.

 

[First]

Nate silver is a fucking bean counter.

Yet he's a bean counter who owned the shit out of you.

lol.

 

[blankslate]

A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.

Translation: waaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!

 

[Abraxas]

A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.

Take a fucking cue from Romney and be gracious in defeat. Being a snippy little bitch about it is precisely the wrong way to act when you are shown incorrect. In particular because when you say shit like a seventh grader could have done what Silver did, the question becomes how did you, presumably an adult, fuck it up so badly?

Accept that Nate Silver is skilled at parsing polls and getting to the heart of what they say and move on.

 

[First]

A seventh grader could make a predictive system. It isn't magic, I'll give him credit for believing the polls because they ended up being right.

Yes, give him credit for understanding polls and statistics. Then look within yourself and accept your inner-layman.

 

[trmiv]

votamatic.org looks like they will hit it right on the nose. They had 332 to 206.

 

[Ryan]

votamatic.org looks like they will hit it right on the nose. They had 332 to 206.

Looking at Nate Silver's "State-by-State probabilities", he called every state 100% correct. Hell - even down to Florida being a very slight lead for Obama.

 

[trmiv]

Didn't Nate Silver have a final prediction on the site at one point? I could swear I saw one earlier today but I can't find it. I thought he did have 332 to 206 also.