Take a fucking cue from Romney and be gracious in defeat. Being a snippy little bitch about it is precisely the wrong way to act when you are shown incorrect. In particular because when you say shit like a seventh grader could have done what Silver did, the question becomes how did you, presumably an adult, fuck it up so badly?
Accept that Nate Silver is skilled at parsing polls and getting to the heart of what they say and move on.
I never said Silver was wrong in his methodology. If his model was incorrect it would be because of the polling data not because of the model itself. I thought the polls were over estimating Democratic turnout which turned out to be 100% wrong.
If we want to be picky. If Silver "predicts" 50 out of 50 states this is actually a failure of his model, at least of his percentage calculations, since there should have been some misses.
Colorado and Virginia both with 80% chance for Obama, 84% chance for Iowa and 50.3% chance for Florida to go Obama. If these percentages actually mean anything the odds are that one of them would have missed. There should have been a 27% chance of getting all of those states right.
If you take all of his probabilities he should have been right 10% of the time on every one of his picks.
His projections on probabilities will be tweaked, I'm sure of it. He's mentioned this in his blog.
Anyway, I was wrong about the polls not Nate Silver.