rockyct
Diamond Member
- Jun 23, 2001
- 6,656
- 32
- 91
The only place where Silver "missed" was in the Senate by about 2 seats. He had an average of 52.5 seats for the Democrats. It's probably going to take at least one recount, but the Democrats look good to take 55 seats but you could average it as 54.5. Basically, all of the toss up seats went to the Democrat except for NV and AZ if you considered AZ being a toss up.
There is still a lot more counting to be done in MT but the Dem has a 3 point lead. That race was actually interesting in that the polls showed Tester winning by 1-2 but Nate's formula used "state fundamentals" to make the Republican the 2-1 favorite. Also, if Heitkamp keeps her 1 point win (3k votes), it will be Nate's worst loss. He had projected the Republican to win 92% of the time. I guess we can general say that smaller states are just harder to get strong polling numbers from.
On another note, I know a lot of us thought McCaskill was going to win (including Silver)..but not by over 15 points (except for SurveyUSA so credit them there).
As far as Presidential numbers, Nate was basically perfect.
There is still a lot more counting to be done in MT but the Dem has a 3 point lead. That race was actually interesting in that the polls showed Tester winning by 1-2 but Nate's formula used "state fundamentals" to make the Republican the 2-1 favorite. Also, if Heitkamp keeps her 1 point win (3k votes), it will be Nate's worst loss. He had projected the Republican to win 92% of the time. I guess we can general say that smaller states are just harder to get strong polling numbers from.
On another note, I know a lot of us thought McCaskill was going to win (including Silver)..but not by over 15 points (except for SurveyUSA so credit them there).
As far as Presidential numbers, Nate was basically perfect.