Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[blackangus]

The company was almost bankrupt before Ryzen. Now all they care about is margins. That is not winning solution long term.

Every MBA in the world disagrees with you.

(I am not on their side tho!)

 

[adroc_thurston]

Now all they care about is margins. That is not winning solution long term.

Yeah it is, higher margin afford you a whole lot more winning per unit of opex.
No fat margins == kiss your 1.5B R&D pile goodbye!

 

[Hans Gruber]

Every MBA in the world disagrees with you.

(I am not on their side tho!)

There is that old saying. We live in interesting times. My answer, no not really.

 

[RnR_au]

My answer, no not really.

This is not twitter. You are not limited in characters and you are allowed to explain your point of view in depth rather than staying with throwaway one-liners.

 

[gdansk]

And what makes you think Intel doesn't care about margins? Being forced to sell a 400mm² part at 200mm² prices because it performed similarly doesn't mean they didn't care. Just that they couldn't do anything about it. If BM is good enough to take market share from AMD why would they price it low?

 

[adroc_thurston]

And what makes you think Intel doesn't care about margins? Being forced to sell a 400mm² part at 200mm² prices because it performed similarly doesn't mean they didn't care. Just that they couldn't do anything about it. If BM is good enough to take market share from AMD why would they price it low?

Gamers still pumping hopium for someone making their green slop cheaper.

 

[marees]

Gamers still pumping hopium for someone making their green slop cheaper.

Hoping that Intel will price cheaply so that AMD will be forced to price cheaply so that nvidia will face pressure to price the 5070 cheaply

5070 ti & above will be priced high anyway

Having said this, I think AMD can afford to go below 16% margins but others with experience/knowledge of how businesses work say it is impossible unless it is a fast moving/high volume business

 

[adroc_thurston]

I think AMD can afford to go below 16% margins but others with experience of how businesses work say it is impossible unless it is a fast moving/high volume business

They can but it's a bet on gamers magically buying Radeon in droves aka they won't.

 

[dr1337]

Gamers still pumping hopium for someone making their green slop cheaper.

without marketshare margins are completely worthless, don't you know that?

 

[adroc_thurston]

without marketshare margins are completely worthless, don't you know that?

It's such a great thing AMD hold ~20% AIB unit share.
Good enough for me!

 

[dr1337]

It's such a great thing AMD hold ~20% AIB unit share.
Good enough for me!

They have a 15% marketshare while counting APUs.Also market share being a percentage gets hit a lot harder when a 3rd competitor breaks a duopoly. Who is really buying intel GPUs eh? they type of person that only buys Nvidia, or the really open minded type of customer that also considers buying AMD. And regardless of that fact, any nvidia customer that jumps to intel also hurts AMDs market share, thats what I meant by surely you know this.

I think AMD is very aware of this and by how Dr. Su positioned zen 1-4 with intel perfectly executing in mind, history would tend to agree.

Like really if RDNA3 was a bit of a miss, why would AMD let RDNA4 also succumb to the same mistakes? outside of the obvious fact they're production limited when it comes to silicon. They could easily sit on their palms and do a bunch of 'buy' generations, however if they have BILLIONSs of R&D then that seem more like they're wasting money rather than actually using it.

 

[adroc_thurston]

They have a 15% marketshare while counting APUs

That also accounts Intel IGP sales which is a ~bad~ metric.

Also market share being a percentage gets hit a lot harder when a 3rd competitor breaks a duopoly

There is no 3rd competitor.

any nvidia customer that jumps to intel also hurts AMDs market share, thats what I meant by surely you know this.

Are you for real?
Is this a real poast?

 

[dr1337]

That also accounts Intel IGP sales which is a ~bad~ metric.

Not at all when we are talking market-share, nobody is buying an intel CPU entirely and only for its iGPU without intentions of experimentation or journalism. Their market share is only going to go up if they manage to sell more dGPUs. AMDs marketshare will also go up if they sell more APUs but on the other hand in terms of dGPUs, if their is product is worse then they lose ground there.

There is no 3rd competitor.

huh? how did you LITERALLY FORGET the exact thing we are talking about?

Are you for real?
Is this a real poast?

care to elaborate instead of trying to bait me into breaking rules? What I said is completely literal and how percentages work so really I am so confused here..

 

[jpiniero]

huh? how did you LITERALLY FORGET the exact thing we are talking about?

Intel isn't a real competitor.

 

[dr1337]

Intel isn't a real competitor.

Because of?

Do you think Intel would be a real competitor if their prices were higher and their margins stronger? Because I don't see that making AMD a better competitor to be frank.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Not at all when we are talking market-share, nobody is buying an intel CPU entirely and only for its iGPU without intentions of experimentation or journalism. Their market share is only going to go up if they manage to sell more dGPUs. AMDs marketshare will also go up if they sell more APUs but on the other hand in terms of dGPUs, if their is product is worse then they lose ground there.

JPR total GPU marketshare metric includes iGPs.
If you're talking strictly AIB sales, AMD is back to like 20%.

huh? how did you LITERALLY FORGET the exact thing we are talking about?

Intel is not a real competitior, they have neither IP nor money to move anywhere.
Broke ass company.

care to elaborate instead of trying to bait me into breaking rules?

Kids ain't gonna switch off Nvidia.

Because of?

Their IP sucks, they have no money to push the MSS needle. It's a broke company with hueg fab capex and dwindling revenue streams.
Simple enough for you?

 

[dr1337]

If you're talking strictly AIB sales, AMD is back to like 20%.

And what about if you count add in GPU sales including direct to customer, like Intel and Nvidia and AMD all do? I don't think any of the design companies care about a singular customer more than the entire rest of the market share when it comes to their strategies. They care about units shipped per dollar.

Kids ain't gonna switch off Nvidia.

Then who is losing market share then lol? AMD? the people you claim to be doing good? It just doesn't compute my dude. You cant do (80/20 - 1) share and not have either major side lose market.

 

[adroc_thurston]

And what about if you count add in GPU sales including direct to customer

?
JPR AIB metrics counts AIB sales.

Then who is losing market share then lol?

No one.
We're back to the almost historic 80/20 split.

You cant do (80/20 - 1) share and not have either major side lose market.

Intel is at 0%.

 

[SolidQ]

We're back to the almost historic 80/20 split.

need old 50\50, like in 2000s

 

[adroc_thurston]

need old 50\50, like in 2000s

Well that's a real tough challenge.
Very different market now.

 

[SolidQ]

Well that's a real tough challenge.

Just release product earlier, than NV.
similar to R300 + release earlier = more market share.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Just release product earlier, than NV.
similar to R300 + release earlier = more market share.

Again, very different markets.

 

[SolidQ]

Again, very different markets.

i know. Also AMD need faster improve RoCm and especially Blender perfomance fix.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Also AMD need faster improve RoCm and especially Blender perfomance fix.

Not relevant.
But oh they do need to improve their shill coverage.

 

[SolidQ]

But oh they do need to improve their shill coverage.

it's only one side. They got Xilinx. Just make very good quality for Streaming, like AMD Alveo, but for Cards, that means, streamers also easily can adversitment Radeon card.