Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[Win2012R2]

Is Nvidia -$100 the plan then?

No, it's 9070XT performing at 4080 level for $399 plan - that's something that can be done in short term

In medium term they need to beef up people working on arch and give them more resources - Nvidia should not be launching with GDDR7 and AMD using old stuff

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

No, it's 9070XT performing at 4080 level for $399 plan - that's something that can be done in short term

In medium term they need to beef up people working on arch and give them more resources - Nvidia should not be launching with GDDR7 and AMD using old stuff

Multiple people thinking they're delaying so they can  increase their price, you think they will  decrease it?

 

[Win2012R2]

Multiple people thinking they're delaying so they can  increase their price, you think they will  decrease it?

No, I don't think they'll decrease it, the question was what they SHOULD DO, not what they will do.

 

[Hail The Brain Slug]

No, I don't think they'll decrease it, the question was what they SHOULD DO, not what they will do.

I think delaying to charge more seems like it runs counter to the strategy they announced some months ago to "grab 40-50% marketshare". I think marginmaxxing doesn't get marketshare, you don't get to marginmax unless you already have marketshare.

I wouldn't be surprised if one factor they are waiting for is the Trump tariff situation to play out so they can adjust their pricing accordingly - Nobody wants to see the GPU's announced for one price and then available on the market for significantly more than advertised because tariffs went into effect between announcement and release.

 

[Mopetar]

Multiple people thinking they're delaying so they can  increase their price, you think they will  decrease it?

If we're being generous I think AMD wants to avoid a situation where they launch and then Nvidia launches products that necessitate and AMD price cut.

I don't think that would happen and JHH is unlikely to care about tanking his company's margins just to spite AMD, but AMD may believe differently.

There's also a question as to how complete our facts are or how many of them are true. There's too much fog of war right now to speak with any kind of certainty.

If the cards don't launch until March then there's nothing to be done about that other than to wait. I guess you can buy a 5090 or 5080 if you can't, but it's not as though AMD was going to lure away many of those customers.

 

[Z O X]

I think delaying to charge more seems like it runs counter to the strategy they announced some months ago to "grab 40-50% marketshare". I think marginmaxxing doesn't get marketshare, you don't get to marginmax unless you already have marketshare.

I wouldn't be surprised if one factor they are waiting for is the Trump tariff situation to play out so they can adjust their pricing accordingly - Nobody wants to see the GPU's announced for one price and then available on the market for significantly more than advertised because tariffs went into effect between announcement and release.

Tariffs are paid on incoming goods, so if Trump adds them, it won't effect nobody until someone returns the favor.
I don't understand what all the fuss is about. They are waiting for nVidia to show their stuff first and act accordingly.
Why not polish the drivers/software with added time?
Anyway, 9070 and 9070XT are 1440p cards (as nVidia counterparts will be) and anything above 600 US is unacceptable.

 

[JustViewing]

I think answer is more simpler, software is not ready. Nothing more.

 

[gaav87]

Benchlife just reported limited stock for blackwell...
Amd with stock in shops lets release in march

 

[Heartbreaker]

Tariffs are paid on incoming goods, so if Trump adds them, it won't effect nobody until someone returns the favor.

What? Who do you think pays for Tariffs? Hint: You do.

If Trump adds 50% tariffs to Chinese or Taiwanese electronics, you will be paying 50% more for GPUs in the USA.

The only exception will be GPUs already in the country.

 

[gdansk]

Those were crypto-craze quarters, though. It had little to nothing to do with gaming performance.

It worked though. There is simply no better approach. Follow the leader is the only plan that makes money. Even now as people complain about their diminishing market share the division eeks a profit (thanks to Sony). This isn't the case for all the Polaris years (which still had to thank Sony).

Even if the 9070 XT was $450 and launched first it would be a miracle if it got AMD back to 15% market share. $400 for a 370mm+ die is not happening except for companies that are going into it knowing they will lose money (Intel, which is why we may only see BMG-G21).

 

[tajoh111]

Launching in March is ridiculous if they have stock in stores. All AMD has to do is launch the card after the RTX 5080 launches to show how strong the card is if the leaks are true. 83% of the performance for 60 percent of the price even at 600 dollars is already strong enough to move cards.

People will not wait for a RTX 5070 and 5070 ti with the threat of tariffs increasing videocard pricing. All this move does is lose potential revenue, piss off board partners and retailers who all lose in this move.

Most of the market buying this card will be people owners of rx 6000 series or rtx 3000 series who want a card for around 600 dollars. When the RTX 5080 launch at plus 15 percent over a RTX 4080, it gives consumers enough of a preview of what is to come for the RTX 5070 and 5070 ti that consumers won't wait and I am certain an RX 5070xt with 83% of the performance at 600 dollars will sell out.

If I was a board partner, I would be so angry at AMD as I would want to move these things as quick as possible before tariffs affect pricing. Add this to board partners not being able to market their AMD products at CES which they likely prepared ahead of time and I would be spiteful at AMD as a board partner. AMD relationship with board partners need to improve if AMD wants to get their GPU in laptops which is over 50% of the market.

Retailers cannot be happy either if they have stock in stores but cannot sell them.

 

[gaav87]

It worked though. There is simply no better approach. Follow the leader is the only plan that makes money. Even now as people complain about their diminishing market share the division eeks a profit (thanks to Sony). This isn't the case for all the Polaris years (which still had to thank Sony).

Even if the 9070 XT was $450 and launched first it would be a miracle if it got AMD back to 15% market share. $400 for a 370mm+ die is not happening except for companies that are going into it knowing they will lose money (Intel, which is why we may only see BMG-G21).

If 9070xt was 450$ 9070 would be what 350$ ? Everyone and their grandma would be running thous.

 

[adroc_thurston]

370mm+ die

Not that.

If 9070xt was 450$ 9070 would be what 350$ ? Everyone and their grandma would be running thous.

Nope, no one buys Radeon.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Nope, no one buys Radeon.

I must be a ghost then.

 

[SolidQ]

I must be a ghost then.

Eveyone who buy Radeon is ghost!

 

[coercitiv]

If 9070xt was 450$ 9070 would be what 350$ ? Everyone and their grandma would be running thous.

If 9070 were $350, assuming decent perf relative to Blackwell, then everyone's password on this forums would be required to be a valid RDNA4 serial number.

I told myself I would stop writing bad jokes in this thread, but there's so much absurdity with these GPU launches that it's literally impossible. At this moment I hope RDNA4 is good for gaming and/or Blackwell is really good at inference, I'm very tempted to buy another 16GB card so I can use local LLMs on a secondary sistem.

 

[Win2012R2]

If Intel can do similar chip on similar process at the same supplier for $250 then AMD should be able to do it for <$400.

There will be no juicy 60% gross margins for the losers in two horse races. In fact the whole "I'm Mr. 60% gross margin, look at meeee!!!" will die a quick death soon - all the suppliers including TSMC will have to contend will lower margins than that, otherwise the music properly stops and they'd be lucky to sell for 35-40%. You've heard it on here first...

 

[Gideon]

I think answer is more simpler, software is not ready. Nothing more.

So that's what Frank Azor really meant by "noone has the final drivers yet!"

 

[adroc_thurston]

If Intel can do similar chip on similar process at the same supplier for $250

Well they can't. It's a loss leader.

There will be no juicy 60% gross margins for the losers in two horse races. In fact the whole "I'm Mr. 60% gross margin, look at meeee!!!" will die a quick death soon - all the suppliers including TSMC will have to contend will lower margins than that, otherwise the music properly stops and they'd be lucky to sell for 35-40%. You've heard it on here first...

this reads like cope because it is.
Margins will stay. You'll just pay more.

 

[gaav87]

So that's what Frank Azor really meant by "noone has the final drivers yet!"

Idk i red today that chiphell boss who leaked the "black monkey" and cyberpunk test results were on production drivers or smt. Chinese translates wierd to english decent to Polish.

 

[gdansk]

If Intel can do similar chip on similar process at the same supplier for $250 then AMD should be able to do it for <$400.

Intel said they're not making money on B580. Proportional to die size alone - excluding parametric yield, the extra VRAM, larger cooler and better VRMs due to higher TDPs - it would be $340. So no I don't think it is possible for AMD to make money with N48 starting at less than $400. They could do a 3/4th chop at <$400.

 

[Meteor Late]

Plenty of people were buying RX 580 and the likes, it is nonsense that "nobody buys Radeon", it's just that the card has to be priced accordingly of course.
Let's also check some facts after Polaris and since Turing generation:
-RTX 2000 launches with new Raytracing and tensor cores features, variable rate shading, mesh shaders, etc, AMD in a later date launches RX 5700 XT and company with no Raytracing capability, no upscaling capability (even if DLSS was trash back then), no mesh shaders, no variable rate shading, etc.
-RTX 3000 launches when DLSS is finally good and very usable and in many games already, AMD launches RX 6000 without upscaling still, and much worse Raytracing.
-RTX 4000 launches with frame generation, AMD launches RX 7000 series without frame generation, and much worse raytracing.

Simply put, AMD were in a much worse position software wise than many years ago when software features were much less relevant.

 

[Meteor Late]

Intel said they're not making money on B580. Proportional to die size alone - excluding parametric yield, the extra VRAM, larger cooler and better VRMs due to higher TDPs - it would be $340. So no I don't think it is possible for AMD to make money with N48 starting at less than $400. They could do a 3/4th chop at <$400.

Ok, will AMD sell it for 450$ then? they will surely make money with 450$ for sure.

 

[gdansk]

RTX 3000 launches when DLSS is finally good and very usable and in many games already, AMD launches RX 6000 without upscaling still, and much worse Raytracing

And yet Indiana Jones runs better on the 6800 XT than the RTX 3080. Weird how that works out.

 

[gdansk]

Ok, will AMD sell it for 450$ then? they will surely make money with 450$ for sure.

Nope, they won't because the RTX 5070 is $550.