Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[Meteor Late]

And yet Indiana Jones runs better on the 6800 XT than the RTX 3080. Weird how that works out.

Yeah, surely buyers in 2020 and 2021 were thrilled to see how well Indiana Jones runs on the 6800 XT so they were rushing to buy it.

 

[Meteor Late]

Nope, they won't because the RTX 5070 is $550.

Oh so they are not interested in market share and only in having the highest margin possible, gotcha.

 

[gdansk]

Yeah, surely buyers in 2020 and 2021 were thrilled to see how well Indiana Jones run on the 6800 XT so they were rushing to buy it.

Nvidia fan's fear mongering about the raytraced future leaving Radeon behind doesn't really work because Nvidia gimped the VRAM and AMD won the consoles.

 

[gdansk]

Oh so they are not interested in market share and only in having the highest margin possible, gotcha.

Yeah. And is it the wrong approach? What good has market share ever done for them? They make the most money with the Nvidia minus approach. It works even if it sheds market share. Offering gamers discounts on their future Nvidia cards isn't their business.

 

[Meteor Late]

Yeah. And is it the wrong approach? What good has market share ever done for them?

To have more happy customers, ask RX 580 buyers how happy they are with the value they got out of this card. That is the way to win market share and buyer happiness, which is the most important thing.

 

[Meteor Late]

Sel 9700 XT for 450$ and customers will be very happy, they will pay AMD back in the future with more purchases. The good will is what AMD needs, but it seems Lisa Su is only interested in being a "Halo" company that sells overpriced stuff to have very fat margins. That will work when the competition is incompetent, like Intel for example, but against a premium brand like Nvidia that will keep the pace (although it seems Blackwell is a bit of a dud), AMD cannot pretend to act like in the CPU space as if they are the premium brand.

 

[gdansk]

To have more happy customers, ask RX 580 buyers how happy they are with the value they got out of this card. That is the way to win market share and buyer happiness, which is the most important thing.

They're another corporation. Not a gamer welfare non-profit. Not losing money while iterating on new IP and software for iGPU and semicustom is the most important thing for this generation. They have nothing at the high end. But they still have the R&D and fixed costs of two chips to recoup. They need some margin. And I think somewhere $480/$500 is low enough for an enhanced 7800 XT.

 

[Meteor Late]

They're another corporation. Not a gamer welfare non-profit. Not losing money while iterating on new IP and software for iGPU and semicustom is the most important thing for this generation. They have nothing at the high end. But they still have the R&D and fixed costs of two chips to recoup. They need some margin.

Again, they are absolutely not losing money selling 9700 XT at 450$, they will have some margin.
But if they sell it at 500$, fair enough from my POV, I hope not more than that (I think they will though).

 

[gdansk]

Again, they are absolutely not losing money selling 9700 XT at 450$, they will have some margin.

I doubt the math works out. Even at that price it'll be a low volume part.
But we'll see.

 

[adroc_thurston]

ask RX 580

Lost money per board sold.

Again, they are absolutely not losing money selling 9700 XT at 450$, they will have some margin.

'some' isn't enough to run a roadmap.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Again, they are absolutely not losing money selling 9700 XT at 450$, they will have some margin.
But if they sell it at 500$, fair enough from my POV, I hope not more than that (I think they will though).

They absolutely can lose a large amount of money even with "some margin".

It costs hundreds of millions to develop these chips, so they need healthy margins and healthy volume, just break even on the whole business case.

 

[moonbogg]

Yeah. And is it the wrong approach? What good has market share ever done for them? They make the most money with the Nvidia minus approach. It works even if it sheds market share. Offering gamers discounts on their future Nvidia cards isn't their business.

True. If 9070XT was like $450 and pressured Nvidia to release 5070Ti at $600, then gamers would just be super excited to buy a 5070Ti for $600. If I was in the market, the only way for me to end up with a 9070XT would be for AMD to pay me $600 to take one from them so I can at least use the money to buy a 5070Ti. My card has to work with VR, and I feel like AMD cards just don't.

 

[Keller_TT]

So no I don't think it is possible for AMD to make money with N48 starting at less than $400. They could do a 3/4th chop at <$400.

AMD can right now sell the 9070 for $449, and 9070 XT for $529 and let the AIBs sell the XT for more.
The reviews are only going to be positive if the likely intentionally leaked numbers hold true and AMD have done enough for a generational uplift and value irrespective of what the 5070 series does. Add FSR4 to that.
But no. They think they've won some lottery to charge Radeon tax because "projected" NV figures are poor.
NV minus 50/100 is just arrogance for a brand with many weaknesses and one that says it wants to do the right thing for its customers.

 

[gdansk]

one that says it wants to do the right thing for its customers.

By offering more features for which people have been clamoring. Not by losing a lot of money.

AMD asked gamers why minus 50 didn't work and they said DLSS3 and ray tracing. Now AMD adds what appears to be a DLSS3 equivalent and better ray tracing. So gamers will say DLSS4 oh and it should be $100 less for more VRAM and better raster too.

Good luck with this lot. They really just want cheaper Nvidia.

 

[gdansk]

If 9070XT was like $450 and pressured Nvidia to release 5070Ti at $600

They don't have to do that. GB205 is designed for price wars. It is tiny. It can't lose. Nvidia could easily sell that at $400 and make 9070 XT look like a poor value.

 

[Keller_TT]

By offering more features for which people have been clamoring. Not by losing a lot of money.

They'll be making profits for the prices I mentioned and they will make good margins through AIBs too. They'll sell cards well for a change.
But beyond all that, Radeon has many things to prove. I don't wanna keep repeating them. When people spend $500+ on a GPU, they expect no less.

 

[gdansk]

They'll be making profits for the prices I mentioned and they will make good margins through AIBs too.

The price you mentioned (529) is higher than I said they would do. Nvidia minus 50 can work. It doesn't normally cause Nvidia to cut prices. And (by name anyway) Nvidia minus 50 is 499.

 

[Win2012R2]

And yet Indiana Jones runs better on the 6800 XT than the RTX 3080. Weird how that works out.

Primarily due to 3080 having memory that is too small, it could have been 6090 running as slow if it did not have enough VRAM for the game.

Plus 128 MB cache works that AMD cut in RDNA 3 - despite showing stats that clearly indicate it needs to be bigger for 4k res

 

[Heartbreaker]

Multiple people thinking they're delaying so they can  increase their price, you think they will  decrease it?

I've seen more on the price decrease side.

As in, NVidia prices took them by surprise and now the have to lower them, and even stories that OEMs are mad because of already paid higher prices and want money back from AMD.

But as per usual, most of these "leaks" are probably made up nonsense.

Regardless of prices going up or down, that doesn't take months to adjust.

IMO, software isn't ready yet.

 

[gdansk]

128 MB cache that AMD cut in RDNA 3 - despite showing stats that clearly indicate it needs to be bigger for 4k res

And the 7900 XTX does as well as the 4080 in that game too so it seems to be fine. But maybe AMD's 50% larger LLC than Nvidia at the same price point is really cheaping out? I'm not sure the point.

 

[inquiss]

To have more happy customers, ask RX 580 buyers how happy they are with the value they got out of this card. That is the way to win market share and buyer happiness, which is the most important thing.

Who cares about happiness. That's not how they will make money and it's a losing game making zero margin making Nvidia GPUs cheaper. So many people in this thread frustrated that AMD isn't the cheap option because they want to save money and their and most people's defaults is Nvidia

 

[adroc_thurston]

Plus 128 MB cache works that AMD cut in RDNA 3 - despite showing stats that clearly indicate it needs to be bigger for 4k res

You ughhh forgot the 50% bandwidth gained.

IMO, software isn't ready yet.

It is.

 

[lucasworais]

Lmao at people here getting mad cuz AMD won’t make Nvidia cut prices.

 

[NomanA]

But beyond all that, Radeon has many things to prove. I don't wanna keep repeating them. When people spend $500+ on a GPU, they expect no less.

Yes, I expect such a card to have at least 16GB of RAM.

My 7800XT has worked really well, and especially for the price I got it at release. I'll definitely pick up 9070XT if it's priced close to (or little more than) 7800XT levels, assuming that the rumored performance benchmarks are correct.

 

[tajoh111]

Too aggressive a price will set off a price war AMD cannot afford. They need to make margin to cover the R and D on top of the gross cost and trying to get into a bleeding match with Nvidia is utterly stupid and self destructive.

In addition too low of a price right now sets up the wrong expectations about future pricing going forward. 3nm chips are very expensive in terms of R and D and cost of wafers.

"Design costs are also a problem. Generally, IC design costs have jumped from $51.3 million for a 28nm planar device to $297.8 million for a 7nm chip and $542.2 million for 5nm, according to IBS. But at 3nm, IC design costs range from a staggering $500 million to $1.5 billion, according to IBS. The $1.5 billion figure involves a complex GPU at Nvidia."

Big Trouble At 3nm

Big Trouble At 3nm Costs of developing a complex chip could run as $1.5B, while power/performance benefits are likely to decrease.

semiengineering.com

When you combine higher development costs along with more expensive wafers, you cannot price your cards too low. If AMD prices the cards at $450 for example for their 9070xt, they are just setting themselves and Nvidia up for failure next generation by setting peoples expectations unrealistically high. Taking into account the cost of development, it actually should not be a surprise that AMD is pulling out of high end discrete. Biggers chips are more expensive to develop while having a smaller more specialized market.

How many chips does AMD need to sell while covering their gross costs to cover 500 million in development costs?

Intel's release kind poisoned the videocard market about how cheap videocards can be for their die size. Intel losing 3.5 billion on ARC(this figure was in 2022), just shows how expensive GPU development is.