Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[insertcarehere]

But... the Switch...

Given where the market is heading, Nvidia is most likely going to be the runaway consoles sales winner with the Switch 2, by virtue of significantly cheaper price points, the impending exit of MS from the console business, and fab costs that make any next-gen console worth making very expensive for the next few years.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

That's because they suck at making halo parts.

No, they suck at making their products seem appealing to the general audience.

they own home consoles bro. They are video games.

Console semicustoms have rock-bottom margins. I thought you said they should maximize margins.

Besides, all console makers are now sending their 1st party games towards the PC. I wonder how many more console generations we'll have.
Xbox/Microsoft is probably out of that race already. They're bound to just release their games on PC and use IQ presets according to detected hardware. PCs with Nvidia dGPUs of course, because AMD is mostly absent there and will continue to be if these prices are confirmed.

They exist not to save the market or force NV pricecuts. It's all about making that sweet ass cash.

They need to sell units to make sweet ass cash, otherwise they're just getting sweet ass losses from R&D.

 

[adroc_thurston]

No, they suck at making their products seem appealing to the general audience.

ergo, they suck at making halo.

Console semicustoms have rock-bottom margins

It's a strategic platform investment.

if these prices are confirmed.

indeed.

They need to sell units to make sweet ass cash, otherwise they're just getting sweet ass losses from R&D.

They are selling units and the R&D spend for gfx IP roadmap exists for other reasons.

 

[jpiniero]

Console semicustoms have rock-bottom margins. I thought you said they should maximize margins.

Margins on the consoles are likely better than what AMD's been getting in the dGPUs for some time.

Maybe the 9070 will be different.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Margins on the consoles are likely better than what AMD's been getting in the dGPUs for some time.

Not really, no.

 

[jpiniero]

Not really, no.

I mean, in the past, AMD dGPUs sat on shelves until they went into full fire sale mode. I don't know if AMD's had to offer rebates or whatever to move product, something they don't have to worry about with the consoles.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I mean, in the past, AMD dGPUs sat on shelves until they went into full fire sale mode

Eh they were/are selling some units. It's fine.
They're not changing their market position until they ship a 300CU 800W halo part.

 

[jpiniero]

until they ship a 300CU 800W halo part.

I continue to believe that even nVidia is done at 600 W, btw.

 

[Mopetar]

They can do fake MSRP, sell the bulk of the GPUs at market value, and then lower prices again once stock normalizes.

That would upset a lot of customers. The only way to do something like this is announce ahead of time what the MSRP is and that because of high demand or short supply they'll auction cards until market price hits MSRP so that people don't have to deal with scalpers.

At this point all they can do is joke. They lost control over their own launch narrative, AMD marketing is now reduced to rumor denials on Xitter. I hope they'll have FSR4 in very good shape by the time of the announcement, so they can hype it with tech demos for the press. This should help them stabilize a bit.

If it's a good card and generally available at launch no one will care about the marketing. In this market it doesn't seem like it matters if your marketing is good or bad, people just want cards.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Eh they were/are selling some units. It's fine.
They're not changing their market position until they ship a 300CU 800W halo part.

800W would require 3 EPS12V cables or 2 of the housefire cables.
WIth that said, EPS12V really needs to become the client standard for GPU power, only so many PSUs have 6 PCIe 8 pin ports for adaptors.
The 12 pin cable would be fine if it used the same dimensions as the traditional connectors, and it would still fit in the form factors NV obsesses over.
But no, it is several cents more per cable and plug for actual safety margin and reliability, can't have that.

 

[jpiniero]

But no, it is several cents more per cable and plug for actual safety margin and reliability, can't have that.

I wonder if the reduced safety margin on the cable is because they are already pushing things at 600 W.

 

[poke01]

imo, more than anything stock needs to there, then the price needs to be sane and then last the software drivers, FSR etc needs to be good.

AMD has a tough job to do but it’s doable. Nvidia is breaking, now’s a good time for AMD to actually make some ground.

Otherwise nah idc anymore….. wake me up in 2027

 

[adroc_thurston]

Nvidia is breaking

They aren't. Suckass uarch but they have the market momentum.

 

[inquiss]

Kill the hype. The hype is what's driving demand.

Why would models improving kill the hype? I believe training is a bubble of sorts but it's not changed hyperscaler plans for investing in AI. Might change the training vs inference mix. Hyperscalers have been raising capex expectations all through earnings. The thought that deepseek will reduce demand for compute isn't meeting reality in the way that you are suggesting.

 

[Ranulf]

I don't think I'd put much stock in console cash considering the price on the PS5 pro.

 

[inquiss]

Less VRAM and tensor performance needed to reach the same results -> lower hardware requirements for established roadmaps -> lowered order numbers.

Tell that to the hyperscalers that are raising capex even after Deepseek results came out (which by the way are impressive but..they spent a lot more than the reports suggested and have been matched by other similar models). The expectation that deepseek results will reduce capex isn't matched by the immediate reality of increase capex spending at hyperscalers. The theory you're suggesting isn't matched by what's actually happening.

 

[jpiniero]

I don't think I'd put much stock in console cash considering the price on the PS5 pro.

IIRC, Sony/MS tell AMD how many wafers to buy & agree to buy them at whatever price they come to an agreement with TSMC. AMD then gets a cherry on top.

Oh and agree to fund the R&D.

 

[insertcarehere]

I mean, in the past, AMD dGPUs sat on shelves until they went into full fire sale mode. I don't know if AMD's had to offer rebates or whatever to move product, something they don't have to worry about with the consoles.

Which past? AMD had no problems selling whatever RDNA2 they made from '20-'22, they had tons of problems meeting supply, having to fulfill supply agreements to Sony/MS to supply N22-sized chips for $400/500 mini-PCs when they'd likely rather have sold those to AIBs who will sell the GPUs themselves at far higher pricing probably didn't help matters. Now that 6nm is no longer leading edge that changes the equation a bit but I still don't see how supplying large monolithic chips for rather cheap mini-PCs hardware wise beats margins of supplying them for GPUs without the other console needs.

IIRC, Sony/MS tell AMD how many wafers to buy & agree to buy them at whatever price they come to an agreement with TSMC. AMD then gets a cherry on top.

Oh and agree to fund the R&D.

The point being that with how expensive the next-gen home consoles are likely to be (PS5 pro being an indicator), relying on that as cashflow given the most likely lower volumes doesn't seem like the soundest idea..

 

[jpiniero]

Which past? AMD had no problems selling whatever RDNA2 they made from '20-'22

That was entirely due to mining. And remember AMD got burnt real bad the first Crypto bust.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD had no problems selling whatever RDNA2 they made from '20-'22,

Yeah they did, 3050 outsold RX6600 like 7/8:1.

 

[insertcarehere]

Yeah they did, 3050 outsold RX6600 like 7/8:1.

And if you actually remember what it was like 3-4 years ago, no GPUs anywhere near MSRP had trouble selling - any sales figure differences was purely a function of supply, which AMD did not provide enough of.

 

[Abwx]

Yeah they did, 3050 outsold RX6600 like 7/8:1.

Yeah, and it keep doing so.
Seriously...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1890770968013861372

 

[poke01]

Yeah, and it keep doing so.
Seriously...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1890770968013861372

all this means is that theres plenty of rdna 3 stock.
Also go check asian sell figures when NV is actually in stock.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Tell that to the hyperscalers that are raising capex even after Deepseek results came out (which by the way are impressive but..they spent a lot more than the reports suggested and have been matched by other similar models). The expectation that deepseek results will reduce capex isn't matched by the immediate reality of increase capex spending at hyperscalers. The theory you're suggesting isn't matched by what's actually happening.

That is not what I'm seeing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1890643714009121073

 

[coercitiv]

That is not what I'm seeing.

Ok, just don't look up.