Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[gaav87]

It will be a bonafide miracle if XT is available (actually purchasable) for less than $699 USD. Dont expect better than that.

Well i said im not buying 9070xt if its even 1 euro cent above 1k euro for top models i do not care about msrp or low models.

 

[jpiniero]

It will be a bonafide miracle if XT is available (actually purchasable) for less than $699 USD. Dont expect better than that.

That feels right for MSRP, assuming the real MSRP of the 5070 Ti is $849-899. That assumes it's reasonably close in RT too though.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Dude please 770$ no vat... I hope i did not wait 3 months for same performance for HIGHER price
As 649$ for reaper would mean 800$+ for red devil/nitro+/taichi/xfx
Thats why i said anything over 649$ is delusional.

You have to pull the trigger at the right time. I commented on this in the AMD forum. Too many treat the market like it is stable. It has not been that way since 2017. You miss your window and any given PC component will go derp on pricing. Thinking performance per dollar will always get better, is outdated thinking.

 

[basix]

Ridiculous? I mean, what you're saying makes sense for you i.e. you would not buy that GPU at that price. Fair enough. However... Nvidia is the market leader and they set the pricing. AMD can't set the market pricing so they follow. What's the point in selling out all of your product at low prices and then Nvidia takes all the profit in the market selling the only available cards as more expensive because you're selling out. If you think pricing is ridiculous that's on Nvidia, not really AMD.

Nvidia is the market leader, yes. But if AMDs target of winning market share is real, you only can do that by either delivering a better/faster product or providing better performance/price ratio. And especially latter matters for most (rational) people, because normally you have a budget and you buy the best you can get with that budget. If you provide let's say just 10% better bang for the buck, you gain nothing, Nvidias mindshare is too strong. In my opinion, AMD needs at least +20% or better +25% and a decent enough FSR4 to convince people to switch to AMD.

So AMD does just have to do one thing: Price it in an attractive manner. The rest will resolve itself. Sure, AMD needs to provide enough supply otherwise everything gets sold out and prices hike again. BUT: If you want to gain market share and considering Nvidias current situation (Ada and Blackwell more or less sold out in 4070TiS+ range and even 4070S reaching absurd high prices), this is the very best situation you can get. The competitor struggles to deliver and you have a relatively cost effective product in decent quantities (hey, launch was delayed by ~6 weeks). Nvidia has left the door wide open (no GPUs, absurd high prices). It cannot get better for AMD, IF they have enough GPUs to sell. But at 699$ the buying choice will get difficult vs. 749$ of the 5070 Ti. Yes, the Nvidia MSRP is nowhere real and not even close to actual shop listings but still, people get affected by that. 579$...649$ as gdansk said ist also my prediction and that is the range which would lead to very nice GPU selling numbers.

550$ max. as HWUB suggested ist just too low in my opinion. Yes, I would like to get it at that price. But you need to stay realistic. Also AMD wants to increase margins. 599$ for the 9070XT and 499$ for the 9070 just seem to be perfectly suited for that. The latter one would be the bang for the buck king. And the fastest AMD model you can get has a little price tag premium. Everything fine with that. Customers get very decent performance considering the price and AMD even manages to increase their margins compared to RDNA3. And at the same time likely gain quite some market share, because Blackwell struggles. Win - Win - Win.

So AMD has it in its own hands.

Thinking performance per dollar will always get better, is outdated thinking.

Then what is the point of buying new hardware? If you do not provide better performance per dollar nobody will buy anything.

 

[Kronos1996]

Finflex does not exist on any N4 derivative.

Well not sure how they did it but they managed somehow. Not exactly sure how that would affect Navi 48 density but here’s some napkin math.

GB203 = 120 MTr/mm2
120 + 27% = 152 MTr/mm2

Which is pretty close to what that leak claims:

 

[inquiss]

Dude please 770$ no vat... I hope i did not wait 3 months for same performance for HIGHER price
As 649$ for reaper would mean 800$+ for red devil/nitro+/taichi/xfx
Thats why i said anything over 649$ is delusional.

View attachment 117871

I mean, Nvidia isn't supplying much to the market so the price of graphics cards is high across the board. Seems like a bad time to buy graphics cards. Low supply high pricing you know.

 

[CastleBravo]

That feels right for MSRP, assuming the real MSRP of the 5070 Ti is $849-899. That assumes it's reasonably close in RT too though.

Assuming equal RT performance, and FSR4=DLSS3 image quality, I would start by taking ~20% off Nvidia price to account for the massive improvement in DLSS4. That would be "MSFP" $599, street price ~$700-750 assuming they want to keep their ~10% market share and not kill Radeon off. If they want to get back to >30% market share like they claim, they need to knock another ~20% off that price to convince RTX owners to switch. If RT is worse than 5070 Ti, or if FSR4 is more like DLSS2, then adjust price accordingly. Or, if they pulled off a miracle and have caught up to DLSS4 transformer model upscaling, then no 20% discount.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Well not sure how they did it but they managed somehow

They're better at making GPUs.

Assuming equal RT performance, and FSR4=DLSS3 image quality, I would start by taking ~20% off Nvidia price to account for the massive improvement in DLSS4. That would put the price ~$700 assuming they want to keep their ~10% market share and not kill Radeon off. If they want to get back to >30% market share like they claim, they need to knock another ~20% off that price to convince RTX owners to switch. If RT is worse than 5070 Ti, or if FSR4 is more like DLSS2, then adjust price accordingly. Or, if they pulled off a miracle and have caught up to DLSS4 transformer model upscaling, then no 20% discount.

Man that's a lot of words to say "I want AMD to force NV pricecuts (again)".

 

[CastleBravo]

Man that's a lot of words to say "I want AMD to force NV pricecuts (again)".

If they do that, I'll buy it. Otherwise, it's not worth switching to AMD.

 

[linkgoron]

Wait, when did this happen?

Maybe I was a bit too harsh, but definitely a disappointment. They didn't even perform as well as AMD's public benchmarks.

So AMD does just have to do one thing: Price it in an attractive manner. The rest will resolve itself. Sure, AMD needs to provide enough supply otherwise everything gets sold out and prices hike again. BUT: If you want to gain market share and considering Nvidias current situation (Ada and Blackwell more or less sold out in 4070TiS+ range and even 4070S reaching absurd high prices), this is the very best situation you can get. The competitor struggles to deliver and you have a relatively cost effective product in decent quantities (hey, lauch was delayed by ~6 weeks). Nvidia has left the door wide open (no GPUs, absurd high prices). It cannot get better for AMD, IF they have enough GPUs to sell. But at 699$ the buying choice will get difficult vs. 749$ of the 5070 Ti. Yes, the Nvidia MSRP is nowhere real to actual shop listings but still, people get affected by that. 579$...649$ as gdansk said ist also my prediction and that is the range which would lead to very nice GPU selling numbers.

Given Nvidia's supply situation, if the 9070XT is competitive with the 5070TI - I think that AMD could take their chances with 9070XT at $699. maybe 674.99.

Then what is the point of buying new hardware? If you do not provide better performance per dollar nobody will buy anything.

Better performance than was previously possible, or people just recognizing reality and willing to pay more money...

 

[adroc_thurston]

If they do that, I'll buy it. Otherwise, it's not worth switching to AMD.

People won't switch to AMD either way.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Then what is the point of buying new hardware? If you do not provide better performance per dollar nobody will buy anything.

Reality since 2017 says otherwise.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Allegedly 350mm2 with 53.9B xtors. It’s a dense boy. I wonder how they improved the density so much…

https://videocardz.com/pixel/amd-navi-48-rdna4-gpu-has-53-9-billion-transistors-more-than-nvidia-gb203

Jesus, I was thinking 42-45B.
Absolute physdes madlads hitting 150M xtor/mm^2 on a 3Ghz+ GPU on N4P with all that cache.

 

[SolidQ]

7800XT sells fine for now, i'd assuming 9070 is 600-650$

 

[DAPUNISHER]

People won't switch to AMD either way.

That is historically accurate. And I said the same thing about CPUs for years and years. Yet that worm eventually turned. Nvidia dropped the ball hard this time. And the 💩 show keeps expanding day after day. Who knows, maybe this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back? Enough jilted gamers might finally give Nvidia the 🖕They are certainly talking a good game about jumping ship on the reddit subs. We can dream...

 

[Win2012R2]

If they do that, I'll buy it. Otherwise, it's not worth switching to AMD.

Would you still do it if Nvidia cuts prices?

 

[SolidQ]

Interesting
Navi 22 = 335mm2 = $480 msrp
Navi 32 = 346mm2 = $499 msrp
Navi 48 = 350mm2 = $??? msrp

 

[gaav87]

That is historically accurate. And I said the same thing about CPUs for years and years. Yet that worm eventually turned. Nvidia dropped the ball hard this time. And the 💩 show keeps expanding day after day. Who knows, maybe this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back? Enough jilted gamers might finally give Nvidia the 🖕They are certainly talking a good game about jumping ship on the reddit subs. We can dream...

Same i always had Intel but slowly got turned by amd... 5800x3d on 2 systems now 9800x3d...
Also there are 5070Ti with defects and 8 missing ROPs i wont post it here cause its not nvidia thread but already have gpu-z with them missing xD

 

[gdansk]

Nvidia dropped the ball hard this time

Not as hard as AMD. They don't have a full line up so they aren't in position to exploit Nvidia's fumble with Blackwell.

And they're so scared of Nvidia price war that they won't try to seize anything wherever they can compete.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Not as hard as AMD. They don't have a full line up so they aren't in position to exploit Nvidia's fumble with Blackwell.

And they're so scared of Nvidia price war that they won't try to seize anything wherever they can compete.

Careful now, this is a vendor thread. Trash and bash AMD in Nvidia threads not here.

 

[gdansk]

Careful now, this is a vendor thread. Trash and bash AMD in Nvidia threads not here.

It isn't trashing. If low bandwidth N48 is close to 5070 Ti then AMD messed up more than Nvidia. Nvidia at least made bigger parts. AMD didn't.

 

[jpiniero]

How do you figure? Nvidia wins by default at everything over $750 because AMD simply didn't compete.

nVidia has for whatever reason decided to not ship product.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

It isn't trashing. If low bandwidth N48 is close to 5070 Ti then AMD messed up more than Nvidia. Nvidia at least made bigger parts. AMD didn't.

You are making it a versus argument with every post now. That's flamebait; We don't do that here. I deleted a couple of posts that are flame war fodder. Let's not take it any further. You can start your own thread speculating on which vendor goofed harder, that's cool. Not here.

 

[MrTeal]

No that's normal (sort of).

Seriously? That's extremely impressive uplift gen on gen.

Really? The 380X @ 32CU GCN Gen3 was basically the same performance as the 280X GCN Gen1 and at the same clocks. Polaris @ 32CU (RX 470) was ~30% faster with its 20% higher clocks, but it took AMD four GCN generations and four years to get a 30% per CU improvement over Tahiti.
RDNA 1 gave a big step, but RDNA2 @ 40CU was ~30% faster than RDNA1 thanks to a similar increase in frequency, and RDNA3 was junk gains.

If RDNA4 really does give 50% uplift over RDNA3 especially if it does so without huge increases in clocks, that seems like a better increase that AMD has had since they moved away from Terascale.

 

[In2Photos]

IMO AMD can't do Nvidia -$50 with these 2 cards. That might work when you're looking at prices between $300-$500. But at $800-$1000 people aren't saving enough to go AMD. There has to be more incentive.