1) Pats over KC. I don't see KC winning without Maclin. Also who's going to be able to cover Edelman and Gronk? If you take one away, the other burns you. Peters on Edelman is a huge mismatch. Parker on Amendola is also a problem for KC. Only Smith on Lafell works out in their favor. Matchups for KC, only Avant checks out against Leonard at +6 - yikes. Then there's the designed screens to White that the Pats run so well. Brady's quick passes should nullify Hali and Houston's pass rush for the most part, especially since Houston is HUGE mismatch against Cannon on the right. Brady will have to get the ball out fast. The X-Factor to watch on the other side of the ball is Kelce vs a top 3 secondary, and KC exceptional RBs vs NE's good LBs (like Collins). Belichick is also a better coach than Reid, there's no other way to put it and he will probably focus on taking away the run and making Kelce beat them. Special teams-wise, Gostkowski kicks the shit out of Santos who is prone to inconsistency. On the flip side, NE has had mental lapses on special teams but lucky for them those guys have all been released by Bill.
You raised some good points, and I know it's been 25 games and a billion years ago that the two teams played against each others, but I don't think the Chiefs have as much problems covering NE's receivers as you'd think. Their defense this year is actually much better than last year's by new addition, and some additions by subtractions. Not only that, NE's O-line is in disarray, and KC can get pressure with 4 (actually, make that 3
https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CYU8PuDUAAAlMXU.mp4). Gronk will be called upon to block a lot. And the Chiefs D isn't stranger to dink-and-dunk offense .
The problem with focusing on any member of KC offense is that they spread the ball out, someone will make play, that's why they've been successful. KC's run game is arguably much better than NE's run game at this point, so we'll see a lot of ground and pound.
I look forward to a great game. I think this will be the best game of the weekend.
2) Arizona over the Packers. Sure, GB could beat a Washington team that couldn't stop the run and had a shit secondary. AZ, while is stronger than Washington vs the run, isn't great but they don't have to be. Also keep an eye on GB's Sam Shields, he could be a difference-maker for the secondary if back. GB olineman Bahktieri *should* be back to provide more passpro for ARod, but it doesn't matter when receivers are blanketed and AZ is about to sack you. Not to mention ARod didn't have a great game vs Washington either. GB's run D wasn't great either, and AZ will exploit that. I expect AZ to lock down Rodgers' receivers and Palmer/David Johnson to dominate on offense against a D that will struggle to stop them.
I think Aaaaaron discount-double-check Rogers got his playoffs hat on, and will out scheme the AZ defense. This is a tougher game to call, but because I like the idea of GB and KC rematch on the 50th anniversary of the Super Bowl, so I give it to GB. And something about momentum...
3) Seattle over Carolina. This is the toughest game to predict because they always play each other so close. While Seattle's oline sucks, Russ can partially negate that with his scramble drill and his WRs have a penchant for getting open. They should also have BeastMode back, so that now gives them a 2D offense again. While Carolina's D is very good, I think Russ and/or Lynch somehow find a way. On the other side of the ball, I think Carolina is going to struggle running the ball just like MN did which will make them 1D. Seattle has the personnel to slow Olsen (Chancellor shut him down last meeting) and Ginn (esp Earl Thomas at safety to help deep). Not to mention Avril completely owns Remmer who can't block him. Newton scrambling will be their xfactor, and whether Bennett can sniff these out while he's roaming. Shead on Cotchery could be a focal point of attack, and on the other side whoever Norman isn't covering (Baldwin or Lockett) will be the focal point (since Finnegan will be on them) along with Kearse (covered by McClain who we don't have data on). Losing Tillman really hurts for Carolina's secondary. This will probably be a lower scoring game due to the defenses unless Seattle blows it open in the air against a non-Norman defender.
I don't think Carolina D will have problems with a scrambling QB, they're used to it, and I think Cam is a tad better than Wilson at scrambling. A lot of Carolina's TD came from Cam rushing on designed play, while Wilson's were broken plays. It's the uncertainty of the broken play that you have to watch out for, but I think Carolina's D has enough discipline to stick to their coverage and not blow it a la Vikes.
4) Denver over Pitt. Denver simply has more talent on paper than Pitt on defense and even offense. D-Will is 50/50 for the game, and Todman is a huge dropoff in talent. Even if Ben plays, Denver will be swarming him with Demarcus Ware back + Von Miller + Wolfe and trying to reinjure that shoulder. The Broncos used the bye week off to get healthier (Ware, Ward, Stewart, Osweiler, Sanders) while Pitt went in the opposite direction. Not to mention, this will be a revenge game from their loss at Pitt - Harris Jr will want payback for getting toasted repeatedly by Brown if Brown even plays. Pitt can attack Trevathan and Talib in the middle by dinking and dunking like last game but the problem is that Denver doesn't allow yards after the catch because of their elite secondary. Denver D also stiffens at home and it would be a huge feat for Ben to pull off the win against a top 3 well rested defense. Manning and Antonio Brown are my xfactors in that Manning has to simply manage the game and not throw picks. E.Sanders should be the focal point since it's a huge mismatch of Antwon Blake covering him. Demaryious has a very slight advantage (+3) over Gay but it's so close it may as well be even. On the flipside, A. Brown will need to have something similar to a repeat performance against an even stronger and healthier Broncos D than he faced earlier in the year. I just think that Denver in a healthy state will be too much for Pitt in an injured state on the road.
This is another whichever way the wind blows, both teams have injuries and players not at 100%, whether due to age, or rust, or whatever . But, I'd like for the Chiefs to host the AFCCG in Arrowhead, claim the AFC trophy there. Although the thought of going into Mile High again and take the trophy from the Broncos is very enticing also...