Record Black Friday spending despite Fox News telling everyone the economy is terrible

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,736
34,614
136
We need state governments to step up and do the right thing for their citizens and remove local control of housing regulation. First step would be to make any area zoned residential by right construction of unlimited density along with the abolition of all parking minimums.

I'm genuinely curious how quickly we could build a ton of housing if we did this. A huge amount of time (years or even decades) is chewed up in waiting for bullshit discretionary reviews, frivolous environmental lawsuits, variances, entitlements, and permits. Projects that don't work due to soft costs might become very attractive.

We might get to find out in SF soon since they are at real risk of losing local control.
 
Reactions: Ajay

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
I'm genuinely curious how quickly we could build a ton of housing if we did this. A huge amount of time (years or even decades) is chewed up in waiting for bullshit discretionary reviews, frivolous environmental lawsuits, variances, entitlements, and permits. Projects that don't work due to soft costs might become very attractive.

We might get to find out in SF soon since they are at real risk of losing local control.
My first thought is we would immediately face a shortage of construction workers and that would take several years to correct.
 

NWRMidnight

Platinum Member
Jun 18, 2001
2,965
2,571
136
Yes, the unfortunate thing is this is almost certainly NOT a housing bubble - this is just years and years of banning housing construction coming home to roost. I almost wish it were a housing bubble as that's probably easier to dig out of than to build 7-10 million new houses.

We need state governments to step up and do the right thing for their citizens and remove local control of housing regulation. First step would be to make any area zoned residential by right construction of unlimited density along with the abolition of all parking minimums.
That is only part of the equation, the other part is the lack of trade skilled workers to build them. Trade skilled workers has been on a decline for over a decade.

edit: In regards to your post above, we are already have a shortage in trade skilled workers (construction workers), that's what played a part in a shortage in housing. They couldn't keep up with demand due to not having the workers.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,736
34,614
136
My first thought is we would immediately face a shortage of construction workers and that would take several years to correct.

Sure and this would likely cause a swing away from SFH construction as denser more efficient buildings are more efficient to construct. Even multifamily would probably see changes away from the stick built platform monstrosities that are going up to more concrete buildings.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
That is only part of the equation, the other part is the lack of trade skilled workers to build them. Trade skilled workers has been on a decline for over a decade.

edit: In regards to your post above, we are already have a shortage in trade skilled workers (construction workers), that's what played a part in a shortage in housing. They couldn't keep up with demand due to not having the workers.
I’m sure that’s part of it but there sure are a lot of developers asking to do new construction projects that are denied or rendered infeasible by local governments too.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,826
10,233
136
Yes, the unfortunate thing is this is almost certainly NOT a housing bubble - this is just years and years of banning housing construction coming home to roost. I almost wish it were a housing bubble as that's probably easier to dig out of than to build 7-10 million new houses.

We need state governments to step up and do the right thing for their citizens and remove local control of housing regulation. First step would be to make any area zoned residential by right construction of unlimited density along with the abolition of all parking minimums.
So you get a bunch of suburban apartments with no parking, built next to neighborhoods. So all the apartment dwellers would park along the neighborhood streets, making the roads less safe for everyone.

I agree with you that the current control needs to change drastically, and parking minimums should also mostly go away. But the solution to really shitty short sighted planning, isn't no planning, it's better planning. Right now, today it makes no sense to built a 500 unit apartment complex in middle of single family neighborhood in Glendale, CA with no parking. It also makes no sense to build single family neighborhoods next to mass transit, highways, and dense commercial areas.

But housing pricing have almost doubled in a decade where I'm at, and there is plenty of land and construction of apartments and SFH. Zoning laws aren't preventing new construction here, yet prices have shot way up.

ETA: I really wish we could get away from cars and getting rid of parking minimums in urban and/or well served areas is a good way of starting that transition. But you also have to balance businesses and housing just creating a big externallity for the community. Removing cars is a huge chicken and egg thing, and I don't think it happens just by making new housing without parking so the people that have to have cars to live there just park elsewhere.
 
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Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,031
2,601
136
The public seems to have confidence in the economy despite the right wing media telling us otherwise
Aren't there also a record number of Americans alive right now? And record inflation? Seems to me like per capita numbers are what we need to see

Also I spent about a thousand dollars on black Friday and will probably return half of it. Lol
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
So you get a bunch of suburban apartments with no parking, built next to neighborhoods. So all the apartment dwellers would park along the neighborhood streets, making the roads less safe for everyone.
If people utilizing roadside parking where it is currently authorized makes the roads less safe that's an argument for banning roadside parking in those areas. It is not an argument against housing development.

But yes, parking minimums should be abolished nationwide. Frankly, the entire idea that people are entitled to store their private property on public land for free is insane. If people want more parking then the market will address it and they can pay the market price for their car storage, as it should be. It doesn't mean to PROHIBIT the construction of parking spots in new developments, if they think their residents want it they are free to make it!

I agree with you that the current control needs to change drastically, and parking minimums should also mostly go away. But the solution to really shitty short sighted planning, isn't no planning, it's better planning. Right now, today it makes no sense to built a 500 unit apartment complex in middle of single family neighborhood in Glendale, CA with no parking. It also makes no sense to build single family neighborhoods next to mass transit, highways, and dense commercial areas.

But housing pricing have almost doubled in a decade where I'm at, and there is plenty of land and construction of apartments and SFH. Zoning laws aren't preventing new construction here, yet prices have shot way up.
If someone wants to detail what this 'better planning' looks like I'm open to hearing it, but every case of 'better planning' I've seen basically maintains the catastrophic status quo with a few tweaks, which is clearly woefully insufficient.

As for what 'makes sense' why not let people decide for themselves what makes sense? If this new 500 unit complex is going to be so terrible to live in then people won't live there and the developer will go bankrupt. I don't get the idea that the thing holding developers back from financially ruinous projects is restrictive zoning.

We tried the 'planned community' thing and it was a disaster. Time to let the market work.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
Aren't there also a record number of Americans alive right now? And record inflation? Seems to me like per capita numbers are what we need to see

Also I spent about a thousand dollars on black Friday and will probably return half of it. Lol
Well nowhere close to record inflation, but the numbers should definitely account for it. Adobe's online price index indicates declines in online prices since last November though so if they did account for it that would send the number higher.



Not going to research Adobe's methodology there to see how valid it is but they did at least think about it.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,104
136
I'm genuinely curious how quickly we could build a ton of housing if we did this. A huge amount of time (years or even decades) is chewed up in waiting for bullshit discretionary reviews, frivolous environmental lawsuits, variances, entitlements, and permits.

This is even a problem in my small (100K) city. It took 4 years for a small development near me to get from the land purchase to the point of breaking ground. Covid could have been an issue, but building in the city is getting more and more difficult, hence most new developments/apartments/condos are going up in the bordering towns (though there is pushback there to prevent tax increases for new schools, etc.).

The one area that moves pretty fast is 55+ communities.
My first thought is we would immediately face a shortage of construction workers and that would take several years to correct.

Many years. And the current cohort that would most likely be in construction/trades seems to be generally adverse to it. Also, it's a pretty small generation.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,369
7,256
136
This is even a problem in my small (100K) city. It took 4 years for a small development near me to get from the land purchase to the point of breaking ground. Covid could have been an issue, but building in the city is getting more and more difficult, hence most new developments/apartments/condos are going up in the bordering towns (though there is pushback there to prevent tax increases for new schools, etc.).

The one area that moves pretty fast is 55+ communities.


Many years. And the current cohort that would most likely be in construction/trades seems to be generally adverse to it. Also, it's a pretty small generation.
Those arguments against new developments are always so specious. School enrollment in many areas is down from the peak of the mid-2000s, and it's not like every new development brings in dozens of children that are exactly the same age and grade level. Plus, the additional taxes that new developments bring in to support any existing or expanded infrastructure (and the fact that that denser infill has lower per capita costs than detached sprawl).
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,794
10,319
136
We do not have record inflation. Much worse in the 70s. We do have record low unemployment.
Oh man, if only there were some data we could look at!

Aw shit, there go the conservative talking points again :roll:
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,562
7,617
136
More social media outrage over a fake $16 Big Mac meal story. Biden getting blame over something that doesn't exist.
In my experience, for fast food, standard sandwich is ~$5 and a meal is ~$10.
I am a little surprised someone got away with $16, but it was clearly an exception to the rule.
That Republicans cannot understand that, and champion fake news, is not surprising.

People believe what they want to believe. So long as a Democrat is President, Republicans will attack the economy. The day a Republican becomes President, the economy will be a magical paradise. Reality be damned, because our people have no need of it. Never did. Social media allows this human condition, this madness, to spread like wildfire. Today, diseases of the mind spread more rapidly than diseases of the blood.

We need to recognize and address the illness that is the human condition. Our penchant for fake news, or it will bury us.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,470
27,746
136
$16 doesn't strike me as all that out of line. A Whopper w/ cheese, medium fries, and a chocolate shake are over $12 and have been for a few years. I'll take one for the team and go get that for lunch and report back on the cost.
 
Reactions: Dave_5k and iRONic

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
$16 doesn't strike me as all that out of line. A Whopper w/ cheese, medium fries, and a chocolate shake are over $12 and have been for a few years. I'll take one for the team and go get that for lunch and report back on the cost.
A normal big mac meal or whatever in Brooklyn, which I assume is one of the most expensive areas in the country, is about $12 today so the person is overstating the cost by about 33%, which is a lot.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,736
34,614
136
A normal big mac meal or whatever in Brooklyn, which I assume is one of the most expensive areas in the country, is about $12 today so the person is overstating the cost by about 33%, which is a lot.

$10.49 here in costal CA.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,617
5,310
136
Since you so interested in bursting the good economy bubble I’ll test what you know.

What would happen to the economy if everyone suddenly paid off all their credit?
Different subject, not germane to the topic at hand.
 
Reactions: iRONic

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,470
27,746
136
$16 doesn't strike me as all that out of line. A Whopper w/ cheese, medium fries, and a chocolate shake are over $12 and have been for a few years. I'll take one for the team and go get that for lunch and report back on the cost.
$14.22 . Now I remember why I usually dine at taco trucks.
 

nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,892
1,910
136
I actually heard a conspiracy that businesses are keeping the costs of their goods high on purpose to generate record profits and to knowingly blame Biden for the high costs of those goods. The conspiracy is that people will vote Republican in 2024 and then they'll get a huge tax cut once again and they'll lower the prices. It almost seems plausible lol.
 
Reactions: iRONic

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,704
49,288
136
I actually heard a conspiracy that businesses are keeping the costs of their goods high on purpose to generate record profits and to knowingly blame Biden for the high costs of those goods. The conspiracy is that people will vote Republican in 2024 and then they'll get a huge tax cut once again and they'll lower the prices. It almost seems plausible lol.
I find this unlikely. Not that I don't think that price fixing never happens, but an economy wide conspiracy by businesses where it never leaks out is unlikely to me.
 
Reactions: Dave_5k
Dec 10, 2005
24,369
7,256
136
I find this unlikely. Not that I don't think that price fixing never happens, but an economy wide conspiracy by businesses where it never leaks out is unlikely to me.
Also the idea that companies are more greedy now than in the prior years seems like a dubious claim.
 
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