Repeat of 2000?

[Train]

Was looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com

Bush has a strong lead in the electoral count, yet they mention in the latest National poll, Kerry leads by 3%

Are we going to have a repeat of 2000? Is Kerry gonna pull a Gore and try to sue for the presidency?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Train
Was looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com

Bush has a strong lead in the electoral count, yet they mention in the latest National poll, Kerry leads by 3%

Are we going to have a repeat of 2000? Is Kerry gonna pull a Gore and try to sue for the presidency?

It's probably a mistake to assume much from electoral-vote.com, it's not particularly accurate.

 

[joshw10]

2 days ago Kerry was winning on the electoral-vote thing. Now it's Back to bush, and will probably go back and forth several more times. Any state that has both candidates within 3% is really too close to call and could go either way. That accounts for like half the electoral votes.

This assumes you believe the state polls are even accurate.

 

[Engineer]

The problem with electoral-vote.com is that he uses the "poll of the day" as his predictors of the states. So whatever is the freshest poll, it is assumed to be the whole state on that one poll. I'm not saying that Bush would not still win, I'm saying that there are other polls (click on each state to see them all) and that they don't agree with each other. If 10 new polls come out today that indicate Kerry ahead in the battleground states, the map at EV.com flips (as it did 2 days ago)

 

[conjur]

Because that site says so?

:roll:


That site just used whatever poll comes out in the news with no regard as to the partisan leanings of the pollster (Survey USA, Strategic Vision lean right and Mason/Dixon might as well be from the GOP)

What I found interesting was this:

The Economist ran a national poll Oct. 11-12. It was a statistical tie, with Kerry at 47% and Bush at 45%. On the subject of Bush's job approval, 44% said he was doing a good job vs. 52% who said he wasn't. Since incumbents rarely score much above their approval rating, this has to be worrisome to Karl Rove

 

[joshw10]

The reason it keeps flipping is because one day the polls by Democratic pollers come out, then the next day its the Republican pollers. Somehow they manage to get results drastically different from each other

 

[Whilden]

Its all about Ohio, and electoral-vote used the latest poll from Strategic Vision *
* Republican polling firm

These are the last 4 polls done in Ohio

Strategic Vision* | 10/9-10/11 801 LV 3.0 51 43 1 Bush +8
Chicago Tribune | 10/8-10/11 500 LV 4.4 45 49 - Kerry +4
ARG | 10/4-10/6 600 LV 4.0 47 48 1 Kerry +1
Survey USA | 10/2-10/4 761 LV 3.6 48 49 - Kerry +1


electoral-vote.com has it at 284-228 with some states as a tie

So kerry needs to take the 20 from Ohio
Current tie states hang on to Iowa (a biggie), Jersey (shouldnt be to tough), NH (was Bush in 00)

I dont think kerry will take nevada as it shows now, but taking back NM would offset that.

In this scenario kerry wins, also WI is in the current Bush column and a win there by kerry could afford him a loss in Iowa.

I can see however Kerry winning the popular vote again, and Bush winning the electoral. I do have faith that Kerry can win both.

 

[Gravity]

I think that whomever wins wins both this time.

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: Whilden
Its all about Ohio, and electoral-vote used the latest poll from Strategic Vision *
* Republican polling firm

These are the last 4 polls done in Ohio

Strategic Vision* | 10/9-10/11 801 LV 3.0 51 43 1 Bush +8
Chicago Tribune | 10/8-10/11 500 LV 4.4 45 49 - Kerry +4
ARG | 10/4-10/6 600 LV 4.0 47 48 1 Kerry +1
Survey USA | 10/2-10/4 761 LV 3.6 48 49 - Kerry +1


electoral-vote.com has it at 284-228 with some states as a tie

So kerry needs to take the 20 from Ohio
Current tie states hang on to Iowa (a biggie), Jersey (shouldnt be to tough), NH (was Bush in 00)

I dont think kerry will take nevada as it shows now, but taking back NM would offset that.

In this scenario kerry wins, also WI is in the current Bush column and a win there by kerry could afford him a loss in Iowa.

I can see however Kerry winning the popular vote again, and Bush winning the electoral. I do have faith that Kerry can win both.

To me, that proves Strategic Vision is an outlier.

 

[chess9]

That electoral map looks about right to me. If the election were held today, I think Bush would win.

Kerry is like a race horse closing the gap to the leader SLOWLY. Will he hit the finish line before he catches Bush?

-Robert

 

[TravisT]

I agree, I think it is pretty accurate. After the first Presidential debate the polls went down for Bush. As so many people thought he lost the debate, that was what I expected and that is exactly what happened where Kerry took lead in a lot of 'battleground states'.

I feel that every couple of weeks Kerry gets a good foothold and pulls ahead, then usually something happens or Bush's 'charm' comes out and he pulls a significant lead again.

I predict that Kerry will go ahead in a few of the battleground states next week based on polls, (but not as much as just after the first Presidential debate) and then President Bush in a couple of weeks will again take a significant lead in the polls and hold it until election time.

 

[DoubleL]

Might just be me but I think Bush will win by a large margin but then again I was wrong with the Bush Clinton bash so we will see but I don't think we will have a 2000

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: DoubleL
Might just be me but I think Bush will win by a large margin but then again I was wrong with the Bush Clinton bash so we will see but I don't think we will have a 2000

IMO it's too close, too late for this to happen. I am increasingly optimistic Sen Kerry will win both the popular and electoral votes by a slim margin, but we shall see . . .

 

[Pliablemoose]

After watching "Bush's Brain" I'm dying to see what Rove will pull out of his hat.

He enjoys being co-president too much to pass this one up

 

[Todd33]

Originally posted by: Train
Was looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com

Bush has a strong lead in the electoral count, yet they mention in the latest National poll, Kerry leads by 3%

Are we going to have a repeat of 2000? Is Kerry gonna pull a Gore and try to sue for the presidency?

That site changes daily and has had Kerry up just as much as Bush, way to pick a day when Bush is up and claim victory.

 

[3chordcharlie]

Originally posted by: Todd33

Originally posted by: Train
Was looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com

Bush has a strong lead in the electoral count, yet they mention in the latest National poll, Kerry leads by 3%

Are we going to have a repeat of 2000? Is Kerry gonna pull a Gore and try to sue for the presidency?

That site changes daily and has had Kerry up just as much as Bush, way to pick a day when Bush is up and claim victory.

I think he was actually pointing out how close the election really is - with the apparently rampant registration fraud on both sides, it's a really tough call whether the results will mirror the will of the American people. Either way, 50% of the country is not going to vote for the new president.

 

[thegimp03]

I wonder how many recounts the libs will demand this election once they lose, again.

*snicker*

 

[gutharius]

Personally I believe the only reason Gore didn't keep going for the suit for the president were a few resaons:

1. Public displeasure over the election results controversy was starting to get to the point of public rioting and errosion of confidence in the Democratic process.
2. Continuing to push the issue with the courts was also causing people to feel the electoral college was a sham and should be abolished. This was a big threat to the 2 party system which is the life blood of these 2 parties.

So maybe it is a little bit of conspiracy theory but it is worth considering. Personally i was shocked when Gore gave up with all the neocon corruption that was going on in Florida.

 

[Thegonagle]

Originally posted by: Train
Was looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com

Bush has a strong lead in the electoral count, yet they mention in the latest National poll, Kerry leads by 3%

Are we going to have a repeat of 2000? Is Kerry gonna pull a Gore and try to sue for the presidency?

I'm pretty sure Bush sued first in 2000. (And that's when I became scared of him and realized the error in my indifference to who would be inaugurated as the new President in January 2001.)

 

[gutharius]

Personally I hope we don't have another 2000, I think it would tear this country apart so bad it would take a long time to heal the resulting wounds.