At this point, Ron Paul, rabid supporters not withstanding, is polling on the order of 2%. And despite his rabid supporters claims that he came up with the best debate answers, I don't see that 2% ever rising to enough to win a single delegate in the upcoming primary process.
The only other current Republican candidate that does not belong in anti-abortion camp is Rudy Guiliani. Whose comes with some big exploitable negatives from both the Republican and democratic sides.
So I have to wonder why some other GOP candidates are not competing for the moderate nitche that Rudy is exploiting to become basically the current front runner. Some one like a Hagel or even the fellow Romney used to be could do very well.
But the crowded pack competing for the right wing soul of the GOP must inevitably cannibalize itself to produce just one well beat up winner. And then that one winner, if the
GOP nominee comes from that wing of the party, is going to have a hard time winning the general election with another possible Goldwater.
The joker will be in the events. One bit of sound advice will probably be that one should not hold ones breath waiting for a GWB success vindication. But the opposite danger is still even more potent. Namely that GWB will continue blowing it into September and October, the GOP
opposition will start to desert GWB&co, and suddenly congress can start to become something other than gridlocked. One possible scenario might be for Congress to then force an ill conceived immediate withdrawal from Iraq, and if that sets off a chain of very US adverse events, its possible that the American people would both blame the dems and conclude radical right neocon policy was correct all along.
And then we could get more years of more stupid neocon foreign policy guaranteed to really get the USA in really deeper in doo doo.
Lots will happen between now and 11/08. And damn near anything could happen. It may not be a matter of is the glass half full or half empty, but a matter of what poison you think the glass holds.