RG3

[RPD]

Just like all the other studs that home come out of USC. They've got the formula down for producing mediocre NFL quarterbacks.

Everyone knows you should only draft RB's from USC, never QB's.

 

[Nintendesert]

Everyone knows you should only draft RB's from USC, never QB's.

The cheerleaders aren't too bad either. :thumbsup:

 

[zinfamous]

DAAAMMN.

Indy just spanked the shit out of all you RG3 cock-gobblers. :awe:

...comparing 7 games-worth of data (some extrapolated out to a hypothetical 16 games) vs 13+ season's worth of data?

No, no he didn't. not in the slightest.

All argument now is simply assumptions as people want to think, or don't want to think will happen with RG3.

All I know is that he is certainly a skilled passing QB, a skilled scrambling QB, and a skilled rushing QB.

He's smart. He's already adjusting his game halfway through his rookie season. It took a guy like Vick 6 or 7 seasons...and some prison time...to adjust his game. Vick is dumb. Vince Young is historically dumb.

I'm inclined to lean towards the assumption that he will develop into a more balanced player--his ability to rush used as more of a play-action opportunity on 2nd and short than a first-option offense (it isn't now a first option).

We saw a scambling/passing QB by the name of Donovan McNabb come into the NFL and adjust his game very successfully. I've always thought McNabb was a pretty smart guy. I see no reason why we shouldn't use him as a better example of comparison for what RG3 may be, instead of guys like Vick or Young or Cunningham.

 

[Red Storm]

If Peyton Manning was backed by the 85 Bears defense, he would've won 4 more Super Bowls. Guess what? He wasn't, so we'll never know. The same with your hypothetical situation above.

Precisely why your "let's compare an entire career to 7 games" doesn't make much sense.

Why are so many Luck fans closet RG3 haters? :hmm:

 

[RPD]

Precisely why your "let's compare an entire career to 7 games" doesn't make much sense.

Why are so many Luck fans closet RG3 haters? :hmm:

I like both QB's and I think both should have successful careers.
However the whole we can't compare anything is nonsense. If you want to compare you have to go on what's out there, what else are you going to do? Compare who's a bigger fanboy?

 

[Red Storm]

I like both QB's and I think both should have successful careers.
However the whole we can't compare anything is nonsense. If you want to compare you have to go on what's out there, what else are you going to do? Compare who's a bigger fanboy?

Taking a single stat and throwing everything else out (when, who, how, etc.) to try and reach a solid conclusion is nonsense.

 

[zinfamous]

I like both QB's and I think both should have successful careers.
However the whole we can't compare anything is nonsense. If you want to compare you have to go on what's out there, what else are you going to do? Compare who's a bigger fanboy?

why doesn't ICF compare a bit more fairly, then?

let's compare RG3's first 7 games, to immortal god Peyton Manning's first 7 games, and try to make conclusions regarding success and ability based only on legit comparable data.

wouldn't that be more accurate?

Or hell--Vick's first 7 games, Joe Montana's first 7 games, Andrew Luck's first 7 games, etc...

 

[BUTCH1]

For the sake of argument let's say he's much smarter than Vick, eventually a LB is gonna get so pissed off by RG3 running by him so easily one will take the penalty, the fine, and just plain clobber him, that's my prediction...

 

[IndyColtsFan]

...comparing 7 games-worth of data (some extrapolated out to a hypothetical 16 games) vs 13+ season's worth of data?

Would you like me to go back and find the stats for Vick, Cunningham, and Steve Young for their first seasons as starters?

We only have 7 games of data and as I mentioned in my post, his numbers could vary wildly the rest of the season. I realize that his career could turn out much differently. However, to pretend he is not a rushing QB when 25% of his plays result in him rushing is assinine, especially when there is a good probability that his rush attempts will exceed the single season career highs of Vick, Cunningham, etc.

No, no he didn't. not in the slightest.

All argument now is simply assumptions as people want to think, or don't want to think will happen with RG3.

I'm the only one attempting to use numbers to justify a position. No one has even tried and I'd wager that my numbers will more or less hold up for this season.

All I know is that he is certainly a skilled passing QB, a skilled scrambling QB, and a skilled rushing QB.

He's smart. He's already adjusting his game halfway through his rookie season. It took a guy like Vick 6 or 7 seasons...and some prison time...to adjust his game. Vick is dumb. Vince Young is historically dumb.

I'm inclined to lean towards the assumption that he will develop into a more balanced player--his ability to rush used as more of a play-action opportunity on 2nd and short than a first-option offense (it isn't now a first option).

We saw a scambling/passing QB by the name of Donovan McNabb come into the NFL and adjust his game very successfully. I've always thought McNabb was a pretty smart guy. I see no reason why we shouldn't use him as a better example of comparison for what RG3 may be, instead of guys like Vick or Young or Cunningham.

I think McNabb's issue was that he got lazy and maybe felt a little entitled. I always admired him as a QB and thought he was one of the best and at first, I didn't know why he was pushed out in Philly and Washington. But then the stories of his lack of work ethic, etc. started filtering out and it made sense. I doubt he was like that before he found success.

 

[techs]

Mcnabbs first two years as a starter he rushed 86 and 82 times. So, he was nowhere near RG3.

Its the threat of the run and the time that RG3 buys by running around in the backfield that is contributing to his passing stats. Any reciever can get free given enough time. The true measure of passer is how well he passes dropping back and completing the pass in the time before the pocket collapses. RG3 hasn't proven he can do that yet.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Precisely why your "let's compare an entire career to 7 games" doesn't make much sense.

His 7 games are all we have to study at this point. My 7 games of stats are worth more than you sitting and saying "RG3 is a beast! I said so!"

Why are so many Luck fans closet RG3 haters? :hmm:

RG3 fans like to bring up Luck without realizing the fact that had Washington had the #1 pick, they would've picked Luck. As a matter-of-fact, if you gave all 32 NFL teams the top slot and said they had to draft a QB, Luck probably would've been the choice for all 32.

I don't hate RG3, but I will call people out on their BS when they claim he is not a rushing/scrambling QB when all indications thus far state otherwise. Nowhere did I say he was a bad QB and nowhere did I say he was bad because he was a scrambling QB. The fact of that matter is that RG3 may very well be the one who fulfills this promise:

I have been studying the game for well over 30 years. I've seen all the new "flash in the pans" come and go -- Cunningham, Vick, Kordell Stewart, etc. I saw the brief wishbone experiment in the NFL in the late 80s with these athletic QBs at the helm. Each time, I heard about how each of these guys was the template of the future NFL QB. Each time, the media was proven wrong. Cunningham was the only one that came close (Cunningham at his best, IMO, was better than McNabb at his best).

RG3 may be the one to finally bust through as an elite scrambling QB. That's great if he does. However, don't sit here and pretend he isn't a rushing QB when stats show a whopping 25% of his plays are runs, which greatly outpaces the "legendary" rushing QBs of recent years.

 

[zinfamous]

Mcnabbs first two years as a starter he rushed 86 and 82 times. So, he was nowhere near RG3.

Its the threat of the run and the time that RG3 buys by running around in the backfield that is contributing to his passing stats. Any reciever can get free given enough time. The true measure of passer is how well he passes dropping back and completing the pass in the time before the pocket collapses. RG3 hasn't proven he can do that yet.

my point with comparing the two is that McNabb was considered a rushing QB before being drafted into the NFL. He was a heavy favorite for the Heisman at the start of his senior year (until NCSU embarrassed him on national TV ~3 games in :awe.

He adjusted his game. I think anyone who watches football would consider him smarter than guys like Vick or Young, and certainly a better QB. Yes, RG3 has rushed way more than McNabb had at the same time, but there is no reason to either doubt he will change his game, or assume he will this early in his career, to match something similar to what McNabb became.

Most also contend that RG3 is incredibly smart when it comes to football. I think many things are possible:

--RG3 will continue to rush and burn himself out early. Or continue to rush and like some sort of superman, have a 12+ year HoF career, winning 7 championships for the dynasty Redskins

--RG3 will end his career early after his 3rd concussion in 2014. or broken collarbone, or torn achilles, or ACL

--RG3 will dominate the next season of Dancing with the Stars...

Here are the few things I do know:

--N matters significantly when you want to sample data. It's fun to look at when N can't be considered significant, but that is it--something "fun to look at." Without a serviceable N, one really doesn't have any significant data

--This thread will not be nearly as long as last year's Tebow thread.

 

[Phoenix86]

Also, let's look at pass attempts:rush attempts for the QBs, shall we?

Steve Young: 4149:722 5.75 pass attempts per rush attempt
Cunningham: 4289:775 5.5 pass attempts per rush attempt
Vick: 2769:770 3.6 pass attempts per rush attempt

Hmmm, who is dead last? Oh wait:

Griffin: 189:64 3 pass attempts per rush attempt

Oh, the "let's extrapolate" off of a handful of games game.

Yes, let's play only looking at some passing numbers this time.

RGIII: Completion 70.4% Yards/game 228.7 Int 1.6% Rating 101.8
Brady: Completion 63.9% Yards/game 250.5 Int 2.1% Rating 96.4
PManning: Completion 65.0% Yards/game 264.7 Int 2.7% Rating 95.2

With all those rushes you'd expect lower passing yards/game but he's not doing terrible there either. The interception numbers are important, that's where almost all rookie QBs get nailed. Their vision of the field and decision making shows here.

Guess he's a better passer than Brady/PManning? No, not yet at least and probably not ever. There aren't enough games on him yet to extrapolate.However, what this should show you is he isn't a 1 dimensional running QB like pretty much everyone is saying.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

why doesn't ICF compare a bit more fairly, then?

let's compare RG3's first 7 games, to immortal god Peyton Manning's first 7 games, and try to make conclusions regarding success and ability based only on legit comparable data.

Except through all the froth pouring from your mouth, you're not seeing what I am saying at all. Please post where I said anything remotely saying RG3 would be or would not be a success in this thread. You won't, because you can't.

The ONLY point I made (and the limited stats bear this out and I'd wager they will at the end of the season), is that RG3 as a player is a rushing-style QB. People in this thread were claiming otherwise, which is crap. His stats thus far put him at a pace ahead of Vick, Cunningham, and others in terms of rushing.

Is 7 games an inadequate sample size? Yes, and I admit his stats could be different at the end of the season. However, my statistical analysis using the available data trumps "RG3 is beast! I said so!" and "RG3 is not a rushing QB!" crap.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Oh, the "let's extrapolate" off of a handful of games game.

Yes, let's play only looking at some passing numbers this time.

RGIII: Completion 70.4% Yards/game 228.7 Int 1.6% Rating 101.8
Brady: Completion 63.9% Yards/game 250.5 Int 2.1% Rating 96.4
PManning: Completion 65.0% Yards/game 264.7 Int 2.7% Rating 95.2

With all those rushes you'd expect lower passing yards/game but he's not doing terrible there either. The interception numbers are important, that's where almost all rookie QBs get nailed. Their vision of the field and decision making shows here.

Guess he's a better passer than Brady/PManning? No, not yet at least and probably not ever. There aren't enough games on him yet to extrapolate.However, what this should show you is he isn't a 1 dimensional running QB like pretty much everyone is saying.

The only thing I showed was that RG3 runs a higher percentage of the time than Vick, Cunningham, and others did. He has a very good chance of eclipsing their career highs in rush attempts this year. I believe he will eclipse those numbers because I believe Washington will likely be on the edge of contention when we get near the playoff race and as a result, RG3 will try to take the team on his shoulders and carry them. Will I be wrong? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet against someone presenting that scenario to me.

And LOL at comparing QB rating (your extrapolation) to simple rush attempts (my extrapolation). HUGE difference. A rush attempt is just that -- a guy running past the line of scrimmage. QB rating is much, much more complicated and I'd wager that if RG3 finishes this year above 100 (I believe he'll be close), it will likely be one of the 2 or 3 best years in his entire career.

 

[zinfamous]

Except through all the froth pouring from your mouth, you're not seeing what I am saying at all. Please post where I said anything remotely saying RG3 would be or would not be a success in this thread. You won't, because you can't.

I wasn't making that point, and I know you have never said that. I also agree that 32/32 teams would have taken Luck. I would have taken him 2 years ago....3 years ago as a top pick


I hope my comments are not being read as "frothing at the mouth." I've never considered RG3 "beast mode" blah blah and frankly, I've never been nearly as up on him as most people seem to be.

In fact, I'm fairly certain that I'm as skeptical as you are. My argument is that history and data provide powerful basis for comparison, and assumptions--yes; and while your lone effort to put this argument into data is admirable and welcome, I just don't think it is very serviceable at this moment.

You can make the argument that he has rushed so much more than supposed "elite rushing QB's" and use the data to show that--but another thing one might ignore when making that point...is that it shows RG3 is nothing like the historical "elite rushing QBs," by virtue of the very argument that you are making.

He really is something different, and it could be that there is an even tighter window of comparison.

 

[hclarkjr]

RG3 fans like to bring up Luck without realizing the fact that had Washington had the #1 pick, they would've picked Luck.

can you prove this statement? i am willing to bet that they would've taken him ( RG3 ) even if they did have the first pick and i bet indy is kicking themselves in the ass in private for not taking him over luck ()

 

[purbeast0]

DAAAMMN.

Indy just spanked the shit out of all you RG3 cock-gobblers. :awe:

not really. he compared careers of nfl studs vs. 7 games of a rookie qb. it's a comparison that really has no merit in the end.

it is better from a game planning point of view to show off the running aspects of rg3 earlier in the season so that the film will have teams preparing for as many different possible options as possible.

i can't wait until they break out the no-huddle. the offense is going to be lightning fast at that point.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

I wasn't making that point, and I know you have never said that. I also agree that 32/32 teams would have taken Luck. I would have taken him 2 years ago....3 years ago as a top pick


I hope my comments are not being read as "frothing at the mouth." I've never considered RG3 "beast mode" blah blah and frankly, I've never been nearly as up on him as most people seem to be.

In fact, I'm fairly certain that I'm as skeptical as you are. My argument is that history and data provide powerful basis for comparison, and assumptions--yes; and while your lone effort to put this argument into data is admirable and welcome, I just don't think it is very serviceable at this moment.

You can make the argument that he has rushed so much more than supposed "elite rushing QB's" and use the data to show that--but another thing one might ignore when making that point...is that it shows RG3 is nothing like the historical "elite rushing QBs," by virtue of the very argument that you are making.

He really is something different, and it could be that there is an even tighter window of comparison.

I think what we're overlooking is that the point I made paints a grim picture for RG3's longevity -- rushing on 25% of his plays isn't acceptable and is going to get him killed. Remember, Vick and the others suffered from numerous injuries rushing far less.

 

[purbeast0]

Mcnabbs first two years as a starter he rushed 86 and 82 times. So, he was nowhere near RG3.

Its the threat of the run and the time that RG3 buys by running around in the backfield that is contributing to his passing stats. Any reciever can get free given enough time. The true measure of passer is how well he passes dropping back and completing the pass in the time before the pocket collapses. RG3 hasn't proven he can do that yet.

you should really try watching full games instead of sportscenter and basing all of your arguments off of that footage.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

can you prove this statement? i am willing to bet that they would've taken him ( RG3 ) even if they did have the first pick and i bet indy is kicking themselves in the ass in private for not taking him over luck ()

Of course you'd say that. That's OK. The fact that Luck was the concensus #1 overall pick two years in a row has no bearing on your reality.

Indy isn't kicking itself at all. This isn't a sprint, it is a marathon, and Luck and Irsay will have a better career than RG3 and Snyder (I almost choked in laughter typing that name).

 

[Phoenix86]

The only thing I showed was that RG3 runs a higher percentage of the time than Vick, Cunningham, and others did. He has a very good chance of eclipsing their career highs in rush attempts this year. I believe he will eclipse those numbers because I believe Washington will likely be on the edge of contention when we get near the playoff race and as a result, RG3 will try to take the team on his shoulders and carry them. Will I be wrong? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet against someone presenting that scenario to me.

And LOL at comparing QB rating (your extrapolation) to simple rush attempts (my extrapolation). HUGE difference. A rush attempt is just that -- a guy running past the line of scrimmage. QB rating is much, much more complicated and I'd wager that if RG3 finishes this year above 100 (I believe he'll be close), it will likely be one of the 2 or 3 best years in his entire career.

Yeah there's no doubt he's running for a ton, which is why it's very easy to label him a running QB. When you label someone like that you kind of assume the other skills are lacking (running QBs can't pass/pocket QBs can't run) and that's a big mistake with RGIII.

Passer rating is obviously more complex but even if you just look at simple number like passing yards/game, completion% and int % it's impressive. Doubly so for a "running QB".

 

[purbeast0]

just curious IndyColtsFan ... what is your 'definition' of someone who is not a 'rushing qb'. what would the stats have to be to take him out of that area?

 

[Phoenix86]

can you prove this statement? i am willing to bet that they would've taken him ( RG3 ) even if they did have the first pick and i bet indy is kicking themselves in the ass in private for not taking him over luck ()

It's a numbers game, rookie QBs are a big risk and Luck was the lowest risk at the time. Everyone had Luck going 1st for a reason. RGIII was slightly higher risk with similar reward at the time.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Boy, all this QB talk makes me want to bump the Vick thread and ask all the people who flamed me for calling Vick "mediocre" what their thoughts are now.