You are extrapolating a projection scenario from a very transitory situation. In 2014 Celeron Broadwell will have roughly the size of Kabini/Temash, and AMD will have to move Kabini production to GLF, plus 22nm Atom will be online with 14nm Atom in the end of the year. All those changes will improve Intel position while worsening AMD position, and significantly changing the rationale behind your AMD assessment.
Yes, biggest AMD weakness was not cultivating closer ties with at least a few big OEMs when they had the leverage to do so (late P3 - most if not all of P4 era). Frustrating that it's been so hard to find notebook options that really took advantage of lower end AMD APUs from a consumer perspective. Instead it was floods of Brazos 15.6inch units sold for just enough below the next tier to entice uninformed buyers.
We know The AMD Hyderabad team putting together the IP for bobcat APU, and getting it ready for production, was aprox 80 men. The fixed cost is, by comparion to BD/Core next to nothing. We know the marginal production cost is in the order of 4-5usd.
How do we know AMD have to move Kabini to GF?
That's a very optimistic release date for Broadwell-based Celerons. We're only getting Ivy Bridge-based Celerons now and that was released more than a year and a half ago.
A single Haswell core is ~15mm2 so it's a bit of a stretch to say that Broadwell will bring that down to the ~3mm2 used by Jaguar. Unless I'm misunderstanding how Celeron works and it results in a significant reduction in die size or something.
That type of corruption is exactly what enabled apple and google to swoop in and steal billions in potential revenue from intel.
R&D of a given product is sunk cost, once you paid it is paid, it does impact ROI analysis but not the current situation of a company. Current products fund current R&D for future products.
That said, Intel *can* accept lower returns in the Celeron line if they can get the cash flows elsewhere, or if they accept the smaller cash flows to fund future products.
Kabini advantage lies in COGS, small chip manufactured in a very mature process and this will allow AMD to make some profit, but Intel can, and probably will put pressure on Kabini's segments. In fact, from a marketing standpoint, Kabini faces an environment far worse than Brazos and things will go downhill in 2014.
Rather , their items , including Intel s , are overpriced.
If that SoC only costed $50 then the BoM for the tablet would be well under $200, even with the highest quality 1080p display. But you can bet they would charge $500 for it. Or more, especially with the surface pro up there in nosebleed territory.
That's not how things work in a competitive market. For every company willing to hypothetically sell for $500 to make a 150% profit, there will be some company willing to sell for $400 to make "only" a 100% profit - if it means a lot more sales. And some other company will sell for $350. And so on.
That's not how things work in a competitive market. For every company willing to hypothetically sell for $500 to make a 150% profit, there will be some company willing to sell for $400 to make "only" a 100% profit - if it means a lot more sales. And some other company will sell for $350. And so on.
You can't really compare a CPU to Apple's end products, where people are largely paying for the Apple brand.
Supply and demand are always in conflict, but the idea that cheaper costs don't lead to cheaper products because companies will just take more profits is absurd. As just one of many examples, we're paying the same price per gigabyte of hard drive storage today that we paid per megabyte of storage 15 years ago.
Supply and demand are always in conflict, but the idea that cheaper costs don't lead to cheaper products because companies will just take more profits is absurd.
Insurance is the counter-example to this. My auto and home rates have gone up consistently by a good 5% per annum the past 5 yrs despite me owning the same aging cars and same under-water house.
It doesn't cost more for an insurance company to insure my house or my autos, but they charge me more simply because they can and I am required by law to buy their products at their prices. Sure I shop around for better rates but it is clear everyone got the same memo in the insurance industry as their annual increases in rates deftly outpace the national inflation rate (heh, just like college tuition ).
For sure when kabini/temash hits the shelves q2 we will se Intel at work doing the above stuff - as AMD would:
Well thats the result when you dont have the powerfull salesforce, and its the name of the game. And it will happen here too, because there is no product like temash, and the OEM will have better profit selling to the ones with the cash for a starter, than the low/middle end - thats classic marketing strategy.
But it will sell in huge numbers, but still be a low profit product for AMD non the less, compared to what fx. a good server cpu can generate.
But remember the bobcat have a good history and have proven to be a very good product for the OEM. They wont be surpriced by the success, and neither will AMD this time. There will be plenty available, and it will therefore hopefully not be supply constrained as bobcat was the first half year.
According to our sources, the NDA will be lifted on 12th of March, 8am EST, and we are sure that we will see at least a couple of reviews as well as some additional info regarding the price and the availability date
Krumme, as you and I correctly identified 2-3 years ago, bobcat was an inflection design and kabini/temash is an outstanding follow up not only product wise but contextually too (PC market shrinking, makers need new ideas; also BOM rising means more design wins) but we can't forget that AMD has to pay $250MM every quarter to Gloflo, this payment in the back of their mind, clouding management judgement leading to bad decisions...
(edit: its ironic that AMD didnt really beliewe in bobcat themselves, its still like kaveri is the most interesting to come. I think there is a lot of status to work on the really big CPU, stars, - as i know development engis and technicians, when they see an impossible, extremely complex leading edge - project they just go for it - its the best in the world - no wonder, but its not always where the best business is)
Not in expanding markets , any manufactured tablet find
a buyer once it is on the shelves , i guess that Samsung
and their likes have zero inventories for theses products.
Insurance is the counter-example to this. My auto and home rates have gone up consistently by a good 5% per annum the past 5 yrs despite me owning the same aging cars and same under-water house.
With margins hoovering around 45-50%, it didn't make sense to develop embedded processors. With margins heading for sub-40% levels, embedded becomes a lot more interesting.
I think you mix it a little bit. Your story is what the middle income american have experienced the last 30 years. Problems with competition is not the major reason for it, albeit a factor here (edit: try and judge for yourself here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QPKKQnijnsM)