Richland & Kabini rumours

[mrmt]

Now, do you expect me to believe that AMD management team thought the sales of Trinity would be enough over sales of Llano to cover leaving their Brazos segment on TSMC? Given that most PC related companies were projecting a slowdown in 2012?

If you go for their forecasts at the end of each quarterly call, yes, they would have enough Trinity sales for at least not trigger the WSA payout. If you *know* that they aware in Q411 or Q112 that they wouldn't reach the WSA threshold in Q4, then you could get rich selling this info to AMD shareholders.

In this case, AMD BoD would be liable for breach of duty with the shareholders. Not only they lied straight face to the investors, they submitted false information to the SEC and intentionally hid a liability in their financial statements.

 

[Vesku]

First, AMD's BoD does not have a good track record. Second, it's not like the 2012 slump was unexpected:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/30/technology/30nvidia.html?_r=0

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/13...-windows-8-tablet-sales-will-be-disappointing

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/19/pc-industry-tablet-sales_n_902419.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/24/micron-idUSN1E75N0K520110624

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/16/pc-sales-microsoft_n_1208163.html

Third, it's quite easy to make self projections that fit the way you need or want them to fit. "We sold +8% when we needed +10% this quarter. Well increase next quarters projected sales by whatever we missed."

 

[mrmt]

First, AMD's BoD does not have a good track record. Second, it's not like the 2012 slump was unexpected

Good track record? So you are now implying that they made a mistake?

They could have avoided that $320 million charge, they saw it coming...

But didn't they see it coming? Didn't they chose to pay the $320 million charge?

And since when 3.6% drop in volumes are considered slump?

 

[Vesku]

They refers to AMD management CEO -> down. Not the BoD. The BoD doesn't have a good track record refers to them reality checking the financial numbers passed on to shareholders. Don't start mixing up the two. The AMD management certainly saw the charge coming, they may not have thought it would be $320 million but they knew they would be paying out at some point and that it wasn't going to be peanuts. They've dealt enough with delayed and canceled projects.

And since when 3.6% drop in volumes are considered slump?

It's a slump in an industry reliant on yearly growth (most markets). It's a slump when you're projecting increased sales contrary to the rest of the market.

http://www.pcper.com/reviews/Editor...-Back-and-Looking-Forward/Importance-Graphics

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2403296,00.asp

"AMD's nearly flat sales numbers on a year-over-year basis "

"Without the massive Globalfoundries non-exclusivity charge, AMD had a pretty good quarter overall," said Patrick Moorhead, principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy. "The big test will be over the next two quarters as they ship Brazos 2.0 [ultra-portable notebook chips] and Trinity for ultrathins. Trinity looks competitive but success will be primarily dependent on OEM designs and retail shelving for the back to school selling season." - said in Apri 2012

Wow, I didn't even realize it was this silly. They paid ~$700 million to GloFo due to their WSA in the beginning of 2012 and now they've paid another ~$300 million end of 2012 dealing with the same agreement.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203370604577262223185162962.html

I have to hand it to Abu Dhabi they made sure to keep the hooks in AMD, nice and deep, when acquiring AMD's foundries.

 

[mrmt]

They refers to AMD management CEO -> down. Not the BoD. The BoD doesn't have a good track record refers to them reality checking the financial numbers passed on to shareholders. Don't start mixing up the two.

I'm not mixing anything here. My position on that issue was always the same: AMD management was incompetent in outlining the sales forecasts, an consequently they weren't expect to pay GLF the take-or-pay charge.

But your position is still confusing. First you say that AMD management "saw it coming" and "chose to pay" 320 million to GLF when canning Wichita, meaning that they withheld that liability from the shareholders and the SEC for almost a year. Even if they were supposed to pay less than 320 million, any charge that a company is likely to pay should be properly provisioned in the balance sheet, which it wasn't. Meaning that if the BoD knew in advance of the any charge and didn't publish the information they did breach their duty with the shareholders.

In any case it is clear that this:

-$100s of millions, Cancel Wichita and Krishna, delay whole product segment by a year
-$320 million, To avoid bringing the retrenched replacements for Wichita and Krishna over to GlobalFoundries

Isn't really true.

But at the same time you are implying that AMD management was incompetent in outlining the sales forecasts, which means that they didn't make the Kabini trade off knowing of the 320 million charge, so they couldn't have made the trade off Brazos vs Trinity, much less any other decision using that number.

It's a slump in an industry reliant on yearly growth (most markets). It's a slump when you're projecting increased sales contrary to the rest of the market.

A slump is a slump, not a slightly drop in the TAM. The only thing slumping last year was AMD market share and AMD sales, the market just didn't grow.

I have to hand it to Abu Dhabi they made sure to keep the hooks in AMD, nice and deep, when acquiring AMD's foundries.

Yes, until 2024. And I'm eager to see what happens the moment they start to manufacture AMD GPUs. Nvidia should be smiling.

 

[Vesku]

But your position is still confusing. First you say that AMD management "saw it coming" and "chose to pay" 320 million to GLF when canning Wichita, meaning that they withheld that liability from the shareholders and the SEC for almost a year. Even if they were supposed to pay less than 320 million, any charge that a company is likely to pay should be properly provisioned in the balance sheet, which it wasn't. Meaning that if the BoD knew in advance of the any charge and didn't publish the information they did breach their duty with the shareholders.

The take or pay decision wasn't until Q4 they'd paid the ~$700 million to cover the interim. What was the SEC going to hit them for? "Your estimated sales of not yet launched product were incredibly optimistic, to jail with you."

Don't mix up the executive management with the BoD, as long as the BoD doesn't dig too deeply they can rubber stamp. Meanwhile at the executive level where they aren't as firewalled quite a bit of flight from the company in 2012.

Chief Sales Officer leaves in Feb 2012 yet AMD is gung-ho on sales forecasts for the year? The replacement has a time machine handy to keep 2012 in order?

http://news.softpedia.com/news/AMD-s-Senior-VP-and-Chief-Sales-Officer-Departs-251383.shtml

A slump is a slump, not a slightly drop in the TAM. The only thing slumping last year was AMD market share and AMD sales, the market just didn't grow.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ofit-tops-estimates-on-slower-production.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ter-sales-forecast-beats-analysts-s-estimates

It's a slump and not just for AMD.

But at the same time you are implying that AMD management was incompetent in outlining the sales forecasts, which means that they didn't make the Kabini trade off knowing of the 320 million charge, so they couldn't have made the trade off Brazos vs Trinity, much less any other decision using that number.

No again, the BoD is incompetent, perhaps deliberately so. The AMD management was what I'd generally describe as optimistically fitting the forecast to the desired results. With nothing to go on but a "gut feeling" trinity is going to fulfill the dreams they had with Llano. You know, a gut feeling strong enough to overlook your Chief of Sales making for the door.

 

[AnandThenMan]

I remember when the shoe was on the other foot, in the netburst era, and the Intel fanboys decried pro-AMD bias of Anand in his CPU reviews then. Same psychological issue then as now.

I don't remember that at all. In fact I remember some very questionable statements in the A64 versus Pentium 4 reviews. And actually back then, when AMD had better single threaded performance, the reviews on this site were pointing out how the Pentium 4 is more competitive in multi-threaded scenarios. Now single threaded performance seems to be so important.

 

[vampirr]

http://www.overclock.net/a/amd-fusi...-what-is-hsa-and-why-it-will-be-revolutionary

http://www.brightsideofnews.com/new...core-architectural-enhancements-unveiled.aspx

http://lensfire.in/37053/news/new-features-of-amd-kaveri-apu-revealed/

 

[pablo87]

Where is the "blame" being heaped on Intel? I'm simply pointing out AMD has neither money nor influence with which to push OEMs. AMD is in a precarious financial position meaning even less leeway in bypassing traditional channels. I generally agree with you, ever since Llano I've been of the opinion AMD should take a more independent strategy with smaller partners as a way to overcome their traditional place in the x86 market. However, the window of opportunity closed while Dirk was still in charge and the AMD board chose as his replacement someone squarely focused in the traditional x86 market.

Fair enough and you make a good point - its ironic that the area he's most comfortable with, because of his background (and the BoD's), he's got the wrong strategy for AMD.

 

[pablo87]

on the WSA, its complete and total incompetence and conflict of interest by the Execs and the BoD.

Even if Mubadala made no product for AMD, and received 8% on $5B debt (the ~$3B that transferred with the Fabs + $2B for good measure re. 32nm investment), that would only cost AMD $400MM per year and that in my opinion is a worst case scenario of what Mubadala "deserves"

Now lets assume you build 6MM Richlands and 6MM Kabini's and Temash per Q, ASP is the same, and BD/PD/Server covers WSA over $250MM. It means the cost of Each Richland is $41.67. kabini designed and optimized (not like now where portability must have been at the expense die size) for TSMC is what, $30 less? So if instead you build 12MM Kabini's and Temash and no Richland's, you save $180MM per Q. Not to mention all the other costs.

The exclusivity is a bigger joke, there is already a massive commitment in place, why do you have to keep the doors open (in retail parlance) if you're still paying the rent? In legal parlance, this was bad paper.

Let's face it: a new controlling shareholder comes in and first thing he would do is sue the BoD, the execs who made the deal, the law firms, Mubadala and Gloflo to have the WSA cancelled and seek to recover monies + damages.

 

[nehalem256]

Let's face it: a new controlling shareholder comes in and first thing he would do is sue the BoD, the execs who made the deal, the law firms, Mubadala and Gloflo to have the WSA cancelled and seek to recover monies + damages.

What would be his grounds for damages? That he knowingly bought a company he knew had previously made a stupid agreement?

If you buy a lemon you don't have the right to complain its a lemon.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

When is Richland out, and whats the expected price range?

If this was already discussed forgive me!

Looking to do a build with it for around $200 for the cpu and board, think that's realistic?

 

[Torn Mind]

When is Richland out, and whats the expected price range?

If this was already discussed forgive me!

Looking to do a build with it for around $200 for the cpu and board, think that's realistic?

I think it is a realistic price expectation. Probably, you might have to get an A55 chipset motherboard, but the budget is realistic.

 

[Centauri]

I think it's more than realistic. I bought my top-end 5800k with a pretty loaded A75 board for $185 on launch day. Prices have been pretty stable around there since.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

Ever since my 12 year old nephew came over the other day and played StarCraft 2 for a few hours before killing my 470 he's been calling me asking me all kinds of questions and wanting me to build him a PC.

Budget is pretty tight, as my sister doesn't really want it in the first place so I was hoping to be able to do something decent for him on the cheap cheap. I'm thinking Richland will give him a decent rig while not making his mom cringe.

 

[beginner99]

Ever since my 12 year old nephew came over the other day and played StarCraft 2 for a few hours before killing my 470 he's been calling me asking me all kinds of questions and wanting me to build him a PC.

Budget is pretty tight, as my sister doesn't really want it in the first place so I was hoping to be able to do something decent for him on the cheap cheap. I'm thinking Richland will give him a decent rig while not making his mom cringe.

For SC 2, going Intel dual core + discrete will be the much better choice. SC 2 is basically single-threaded. It uses a second thread but only slightly.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I'm sure he'll play more games, Haswell i3's won't be out for awhile and it's still unknown if base clock will return for OC'ing or not.

Besides, it's highly unlikely I'll get an i3, board, and dedicated gpu for $200, in fact it's probably impossible.

Unless Haswell has something crazy for a gpu, I'd rather stick with the stronger GPU in this situation as it's a more well rounded solution for the budget constraints in place.

 

[MeldarthX]

Completely agree with you here Balla - but got say recommending dual cores anymore - not a good idea as this year and next year will be a nice shift from single core to mutlicore coding specially in gaming....

Richland looks to be a solid cpu...we should see some stuff tomorrow as its supposed to come out on the 12th....

 

[NTMBK]

Ever since my 12 year old nephew came over the other day and played StarCraft 2 for a few hours before killing my 470 he's been calling me asking me all kinds of questions and wanting me to build him a PC.

Budget is pretty tight, as my sister doesn't really want it in the first place so I was hoping to be able to do something decent for him on the cheap cheap. I'm thinking Richland will give him a decent rig while not making his mom cringe.

Sounds like a good idea. Me and my family did a Llano build for my sister for Christmas a couple years back, because she enjoys occasional gaming but we didn't have the money to spend on a big build. And the joy of it is that your nephew can add a discrete GPU a few years down the line- if he starts saving when he gets a job of course

 

[itsmydamnation]

the other thing is, can you count on intel for gaming drivers? a 4 core Richland seems like a good bet, i dont know what the HSF is like but the FX's are good. You could do a good stock HSF OC as well.

 

[Torn Mind]

I'm sure he'll play more games, Haswell i3's won't be out for awhile and it's still unknown if base clock will return for OC'ing or not.

Besides, it's highly unlikely I'll get an i3, board, and dedicated gpu for $200, in fact it's probably impossible.

Unless Haswell has something crazy for a gpu, I'd rather stick with the stronger GPU in this situation as it's a more well rounded solution for the budget constraints in place.

That is correct. A 7750 is about $90-$100 and the i3 itself is about $120. A B75 motherboard is about $60 at the lowest, usually. Over budget. APUs are suitable for those on a tighter budget but want to game to some extent.

 

[386user]

cant wait to see some gaming benchmarks

and some oems who actually use amd chips in decent laptops and not complete trash as was the case with trinity

 

[Homeles]

I'm curious to see how they managed to bump the clocks so much in the same thermal envelope. Maybe they'll have a chip that finally beats out Llano in efficiency.

 

[MightyMalus]

I'm curious to see how they managed to bump the clocks so much in the same thermal envelope. Maybe they'll have a chip that finally beats out Llano in efficiency.

I heard that Trinity was overvolted, maybe that's one reason?
And if using a GCN iGPU, that would explain another.
Can't wait for tomorrow!

 

[Torn Mind]

I heard that Trinity was overvolted, maybe that's one reason?
And if using a GCN iGPU, that would explain another.
Can't wait for tomorrow!

It's probably due to the die shrink. The GPU seems to be be the same as with th 5800K, but with a 44 Mhz higher clock.