RIM death watch

[poofyhairguy]

AGM was today .... and not a total disaster. Questions asked were answered and they gave a top level overview of the 3 phase plant to turn things around. Phase 1 is complete and phase 2 started a month ago. Phase 1 was mostly streamilining the business.

Phase 3: Sell an Android phone with BBM on it?

 

[theevilsharpie]

Phase 1: Streamline the company --- Complete
Phase 2: ??? --- In Progress
Phase 3: Profit! --- Not Yet Started

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Phase 1: Streamline the company --- Complete
Phase 2: ??? --- In Progress
Phase 3: Profit! --- Not Yet Started

Close, but 3 was actually profit.

Techincially:
1) Fix
2) Build and Invest
3) Benefit


Details:
1) Refocus Company, Reduce Costs, etc
2) Build out servers as needed and get products launched (BES, etc)
3) Return to profitability

In terms of erarnings, they expect to be just shy of break even the next two quarters. Probably a 10 cent loss or so per share. But they think in Q4, they will be profitable.

 

[Pheran]

BlackBerry announces that it may sell the company

BlackBerry said on Monday that it is considering a range of options to put an end to its struggles, including putting itself up for sale. ...

 

[Imp]

Did trading actually stop? My broker's ticker is showing data all up to now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Did trading actually stop? My broker's ticker is showing data all up to now.

They stopped trading in the pre-market for a while.

 

[jpiniero]

I'd be shocked if they get anything close to the current price though.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Why shouldn't it get more? If it doesn't fetch more than $15/share I'd be shocked.

Sorry, but the idea that it is a company going dead is not an accurate statement.

Quite frankly, I'd be amazed if hte BoD and shareholders together take anything under $20/share.

 

[shortylickens]

Pliable Moose is laughing his ass off.

That is all.

 

[theevilsharpie]

Sorry, but the idea that it is a company going dead is not an accurate statement.

Lulz.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Lulz.

Trailing 12 months FCF is $800 million. No debt. $3 billion in cash on the books.

Sorry, I read.

 

[Fritzo]

I've always said that Blackberry needs to drop selling phones and just sell it's mobile email platform. It's exactly what IT people want for large companies, and it's limited because it's only available on a dead phone product line.

If Microsoft were smart, they'd buy Blackberry and integrate them into Exchange.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

"Sources familiar with the deal" say that the company wants north of $20/share.

 

[NFS4]

"Sources familiar with the deal" say that the company wants north of $20/share.

Sources within my head say:

 

[theevilsharpie]

Trailing 12 months FCF is $800 million. No debt. $3 billion in cash on the books.

Sorry, I read.

BlackBerry could have a gazillion dollars, and it wouldn't matter.

BlackBerry is losing subscribers at a time when its competitors are still growing, their marketshare in all markets is continuing to decline, longtime corporate customers are leaving en masse to competing platforms, the BlackBerry brand's value is continuing to erode, the clock is ticking on BlackBerry's patents, and BB10-powered handsets have failed to gain traction in the marketplace (to the surprise of absolutely no one).

BlackBerry is a publicly traded company whose shareholders demand growth. BlackBerry is not growing, and barring some market-changing technology that they haven't revealed yet (and which probably don't exist, given the fact that BlackBerry's board has thrown a "For Sale" sign on the company), they have no hope of growing for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is on life support, and their shareholders are getting ready to pull the plug. If BlackBerry's next earnings report are as bad as last quarter's was, Thorsten Heins will be fired and the board will hire a new CEO whose task is to prepare the company for a sale.

Feel free to quote this post.

 

[Genx87]

I'd value them cash + any valuable IP. Their server software may have promise if promoted corrently now that it can control Android + iOS phones. Otherwise I wouldnt pay for any potential growth the current organization is showing. Because right now that is bleak to non-existent.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

BlackBerry could have a gazillion dollars, and it wouldn't matter.

BlackBerry is losing subscribers at a time when its competitors are still growing, their marketshare in all markets is continuing to decline, longtime corporate customers are leaving en masse to competing platforms, the BlackBerry brand's value is continuing to erode, the clock is ticking on BlackBerry's patents, and BB10-powered handsets have failed to gain traction in the marketplace (to the surprise of absolutely no one).

BlackBerry is a publicly traded company whose shareholders demand growth. BlackBerry is not growing, and barring some market-changing technology that they haven't revealed yet (and which probably don't exist, given the fact that BlackBerry's board has thrown a "For Sale" sign on the company), they have no hope of growing for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is on life support, and their shareholders are getting ready to pull the plug. If BlackBerry's next earnings report are as bad as last quarter's was, Thorsten Heins will be fired and the board will hire a new CEO whose task is to prepare the company for a sale.

Feel free to quote this post.

Blackberry's next quarter is going to be similar to this quarter. This is pretty much known. It won't be till Q4 that all the BES revenues start up where that stupid EPS metric that means nothing and everyone cares about turns positive. And if it is "that bad" next quarter, I will be happy to see $200 million more of FCF and cash/share grow by antoher $200 million.

People act like they only have a quarter or two to turn things around. No, they have years. First, they have to start burning cash. Which they are not. Then they will have to burn through over $3 billion of it.

Anyway, I don't disagree. They need to turn things for the better. Their perception in the USA sucks. Maybe that's why places like Times Square and Penn Station in NYC have huge ads now? Along with advertising vans in the City.

As for life support? Poor analogy. That would assume that they are in the hosptal.

 

[NFS4]

As for life support? Poor analogy. That would assume that they are in the hosptal.

Correction; they are in the ambulance on the way to the E.R. with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head.

 

[rockyct]

Blackberry's next quarter is going to be similar to this quarter. This is pretty much known. It won't be till Q4 that all the BES revenues start up where that stupid EPS metric that means nothing and everyone cares about turns positive. And if it is "that bad" next quarter, I will be happy to see $200 million more of FCF and cash/share grow by antoher $200 million.

People act like they only have a quarter or two to turn things around. No, they have years. First, they have to start burning cash. Which they are not. Then they will have to burn through over $3 billion of it.

Anyway, I don't disagree. They need to turn things for the better. Their perception in the USA sucks. Maybe that's why places like Times Square and Penn Station in NYC have huge ads now? Along with advertising vans in the City.

As for life support? Poor analogy. That would assume that they are in the hosptal.

It seems like every argument from you in defense of RIM in this thread is basically, "they aren't as bad as everyone thinks, but six months from now they'll great."

Sure they have a lot of money, but that isn't going to help them much at this point except to be more attractive in a buy out. They absolutely do not have years. The mobile market is just about locked in. Microsoft entered about a year too late and they are fighting for every point of market share now. RIM assumed brand loyalty would keep them in the game until BB10 came out. They were wrong.

 

[SAWYER]

 

[Jaskalas]

So Blackberry... known quantity, but when are we going to have a Microsoft deathwatch thread? :ninja:

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Correction; they are in the ambulance on the way to the E.R. with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head.

More like:

Reporters report seeing BBRY being taken to a hospital from a self inflicted gunshot wound. Meanwhile, Samsung is the employer of the reporter and the actual Blackberry is on the street corner wondering what all the fuss is about.

But the patient on the way to the hospital is glad that the devices that could save his life is oblivious that the QNX operating system is running on the medical devices that may save his life.

 

[irishScott]

So Blackberry... known quantity, but when are we going to have a Microsoft deathwatch thread? :ninja:

Probably never. Too big to fail.

But in all seriousness Microsoft has had some very solid ideas recently. Windows 8 on a touch-screen Laptop works extremely well IMO, and Windows Phone is a great OS hampered by the chicken/egg issue.

Unless they royally fuck up, Microsoft can afford to lose a lot of ground while it gets its shit together and still come out a major player. They've had their missteps, but they're stumbling in the right direction overall IMO.

 

[Crono]

Probably never. Too big to fail.

But in all seriousness Microsoft has had some very solid ideas recently. Windows 8 on a touch-screen Laptop works extremely well IMO, and Windows Phone is a great OS hampered by the chicken/egg issue.

Unless they royally fuck up, Microsoft can afford to lose a lot of ground while it gets its shit together and still come out a major player. They've had their missteps, but they're stumbling in the right direction overall IMO.

This, plus they are making the right moves with cloud services and Office. They lost a decent chunk of change on RT, but they can afford to learn from their mistakes and they have enough products and services in their divisions to make up for it.

 

[Imp]

MSFT's Office, servers, and Windows division can bankroll multi-billion dollar losses until the end of time...