RNC Convention Day 3 discussion

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jpeyton

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Originally posted by: Wreckem
Its a 50/50 toss up.
Except it's not.

Remember how Hillary lost because of that "math problem"?

It's really not as close as you think.

Obama is winning all of Kerry's states by much larger margins than Kerry did in 2004, plus he's winning enough Bush states by big margins to push him to 270.

McCain is being out-spent, out-organized, and out-hustled right now. Palin wasn't a game changer; she just prevented it from being a landslide loss by getting the GOP base to the polls on election day. But the voter rolls are heavily in favor of the Democrats this year, so red vs. blue simply won't be enough for McCain.
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
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Originally posted by: sammyunltd
So, given that Palin will eventually be President, voting McCain would go against your statement.
Palin will NOT eventually be president. Have you seen McCain's mother? 96 yrs old. Good genes in that family. No, McCain will be just fine.

The obvious difference is you get experience right away with McCain and a (low) probability of a rookie in Palin if he croaks in office, whereas with Barack you get a rookie right away.
 

Robor

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Its a 50/50 toss up.
Except it's not.

Remember how Hillary lost because of that "math problem"?

It's really not as close as you think.

Obama is winning all of Kerry's states by much larger margins than Kerry did in 2004, plus he's winning enough Bush states by big margins to push him to 270.

McCain is being out-spent, out-organized, and out-hustled right now. Palin wasn't a game changer; she just prevented it from being a landslide loss by getting the GOP base to the polls on election day. But the voter rolls are heavily in favor of the Democrats this year, so red vs. blue simply won't be enough for McCain.

I don't believe in superstitions. I'll walk under a ladder across a black cats path while smashing mirrors. Still, I wish you'd stop jinxing Obama.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
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Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: brencat
McCain gave a wonderful speech tonight IMO. I've seen him speak a lot. He's given better speeches in terms of content, but in terms of sincerity he definitely struck a chord tonight. He's not perfect, wasn't even my first choice, yet you can tell this guy loves his country as imperfect as it is. And that may make all the difference. This race is about to turn around big time in my view.

Good luck Barack. You're gonna need it.

Yes, I was moved too. But then I remembered he voted with Bush 95% of the time. Unforgivable. Add to that his choice for a running, Caribou Barbie, and he's dug himself a hole no speech can get him out of.

Still clinging to that talking point, eh?
 

Robor

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Originally posted by: brencat
Originally posted by: sammyunltd
So, given that Palin will eventually be President, voting McCain would go against your statement.
Palin will NOT eventually be president. Have you seen McCain's mother? 96 yrs old. Good genes in that family. No, McCain will be just fine.

The obvious difference is you get experience right away with McCain and a (low) probability of a rookie in Palin if he croaks in office, whereas with Barack you get a rookie right away.

I agree the eldest McCain looked great for her age but someone else here pointed out McCain's father and grandfather didn't make it to 72. He's the oldest presidential nominee and his age and health are factors, especially given the VP pick.

You call Barack a rookie yet he beat Clinton who had a huge starting advantage. Do you think Palin could have beat McCain or anyone else on the ticket?

 

Robor

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Originally posted by: winnar111
Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: brencat
McCain gave a wonderful speech tonight IMO. I've seen him speak a lot. He's given better speeches in terms of content, but in terms of sincerity he definitely struck a chord tonight. He's not perfect, wasn't even my first choice, yet you can tell this guy loves his country as imperfect as it is. And that may make all the difference. This race is about to turn around big time in my view.

Good luck Barack. You're gonna need it.

Yes, I was moved too. But then I remembered he voted with Bush 95% of the time. Unforgivable. Add to that his choice for a running, Caribou Barbie, and he's dug himself a hole no speech can get him out of.

Still clinging to that talking point, eh?

How is it a 'talking point' if McCain calls himself a change yet voted 95% with Bush?
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
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Originally posted by: Robor
Originally posted by: winnar111
Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: brencat
McCain gave a wonderful speech tonight IMO. I've seen him speak a lot. He's given better speeches in terms of content, but in terms of sincerity he definitely struck a chord tonight. He's not perfect, wasn't even my first choice, yet you can tell this guy loves his country as imperfect as it is. And that may make all the difference. This race is about to turn around big time in my view.

Good luck Barack. You're gonna need it.

Yes, I was moved too. But then I remembered he voted with Bush 95% of the time. Unforgivable. Add to that his choice for a running, Caribou Barbie, and he's dug himself a hole no speech can get him out of.

Still clinging to that talking point, eh?

How is it a 'talking point' if McCain calls himself a change yet voted 95% with Bush?

Because it ignores Bush's presidency and McCain's voting record from 2001-2006?

Let's not forget that Senate votes tend to be unanimous and Obama agrees with Bush over 50% of the time by his own criteria.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
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Aug 23, 2003
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Originally posted by: winnar111
Because it ignores Bush's presidency and McCain's voting record from 2001-2006?

Let's not forget that Senate votes tend to be unanimous and Obama agrees with Bush over 50% of the time by his own criteria.
If you AVERAGE his voting record for every year Bush has been in office, it's 90% with Shrub. 95% was for 2007, and it's 100% (transformation to McBush complete) in 2008.
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
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Originally posted by: Robor
I agree the eldest McCain looked great for her age but someone else here pointed out McCain's father and grandfather didn't make it to 72. He's the oldest presidential nominee and his age and health are factors, especially given the VP pick.

You call Barack a rookie yet he beat Clinton who had a huge starting advantage. Do you think Palin could have beat McCain or anyone else on the ticket?
Frankly, I'm still in shock Barack defeated Hillary. And it was primarily because of the baggage that the Clintons carried into this cycle. But Hillary looked way more presidential than Barack ever could, IMO. She has a great speaking voice and I like the 'don't fuck with me look' in her eyes. (Matter of fact, I like that look in just about anyone with extreme self-confidence). And yet even with all the corruption, lying, and baggage of the Clintons, I believe Hillary would be up by 10+ pts right now if she were at the top of their ticket.

I'm not a kid anymore and maybe I'm even a bit old-fashioned with some things, but I like to see a few grays on a person for a position this important before I trust them completely.
 

winnar111

Banned
Mar 10, 2008
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Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: winnar111
Because it ignores Bush's presidency and McCain's voting record from 2001-2006?

Let's not forget that Senate votes tend to be unanimous and Obama agrees with Bush over 50% of the time by his own criteria.
If you AVERAGE his voting record for every year Bush has been in office, it's 90% with Shrub. 95% was for 2007, and it's 100% (transformation to McBush complete) in 2008.

How much did Obama agree with Bush in the last 4 years?
 

Robor

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
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Originally posted by: winnar111
Originally posted by: Robor
Originally posted by: winnar111
Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: brencat
McCain gave a wonderful speech tonight IMO. I've seen him speak a lot. He's given better speeches in terms of content, but in terms of sincerity he definitely struck a chord tonight. He's not perfect, wasn't even my first choice, yet you can tell this guy loves his country as imperfect as it is. And that may make all the difference. This race is about to turn around big time in my view.

Good luck Barack. You're gonna need it.

Yes, I was moved too. But then I remembered he voted with Bush 95% of the time. Unforgivable. Add to that his choice for a running, Caribou Barbie, and he's dug himself a hole no speech can get him out of.

Still clinging to that talking point, eh?

How is it a 'talking point' if McCain calls himself a change yet voted 95% with Bush?

Because it ignores Bush's presidency and McCain's voting record from 2001-2006?

Let's not forget that Senate votes tend to be unanimous and Obama agrees with Bush over 50% of the time by his own criteria.

That goes back to the senator McCain vs. presidential candidate McCain comparison.
 

Robor

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Oct 9, 1999
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Originally posted by: brencat
Originally posted by: Robor
I agree the eldest McCain looked great for her age but someone else here pointed out McCain's father and grandfather didn't make it to 72. He's the oldest presidential nominee and his age and health are factors, especially given the VP pick.

You call Barack a rookie yet he beat Clinton who had a huge starting advantage. Do you think Palin could have beat McCain or anyone else on the ticket?
Frankly, I'm still in shock Barack defeated Hillary. And it was primarily because of the baggage that the Clintons carried into this cycle. But Hillary looked way more presidential than Barack ever could, IMO. She has a great speaking voice and I like the 'don't fuck with me look' in her eyes. (Matter of fact, I like that look in just about anyone with extreme self-confidence). And yet even with all the corruption, lying, and baggage of the Clintons, I believe Hillary would be up by 10+ pts right now if she were at the top of their ticket.

I'm not a kid anymore and maybe I'm even a bit old-fashioned with some things, but I like to see a few grays on a person for a position this important before I trust them completely.

I'm an Obama supporter and would have supported Clinton had she won but it had nothing to do with Clinton baggage. From what I've seen posted by people more intelligent than me it was campaign strategy that won it for Obama - particularly caucus states.

I'm not a kid anymore either - 41 creeping up soon with too many grays to count. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Obama's got some grays around the temples too. If he doesn't he's cheating!

 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
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Originally posted by: Robor
I'm not a kid anymore either - 41 creeping up soon with too many grays to count. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Obama's got some grays around the temples too. If he doesn't he's cheating!
I'm 38 and have a LOT of Wall Street-related grays. But there's 40s gray and then there's 60s+ gray. Sorry, the presidency you gotta earn
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
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Aug 23, 2003
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Media reactions:

David Gergen thought the speech repeated the same old GOP ideas:

I did not think that the substantive part of the speech worked very well. It was mostly a rerun, retread of a lot of old Republican ideas that have brought us to where we are now. I think the country is looking for fresh answers. It's hard to separate yourself out from President Bush when you essentially have the same economic policies as President Bush. I thought that the policy presentation was a little thin."

Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson slammed McCain's speech on MSNBC

The policy in the speech was rather typical for a Republican. Pretty disappointing. It didn't do a lot of outreach to moderates and independents on issues that they care about. It talked, about issues like drilling and school choice which was really speaking to the converted. I think that was a missed opportunity. Many Americans needed to hear from this speech something they have never heard from Republicans before. And in reality, a lot of the policy they've heard from Republicans before.

The New Republic thought the speech was flat:

It's not over yet but this is a very underwhelming speech. Familiar points explained in pedestrian terms. No overarching themes--right now it's sounding like a State of the Union laundry list. Even the crowd in the hall isn't jazzed. This is the sort of reception Tom Ridge got.

MSNBC pointed out that the biggest applause of the night was for Sarah Palin.

Jeffrey Toobin told Wolf Blitzer on CNN that:

I thought it was the worst speech by a nominee that I've heard since Jimmy Carter in 1980. I thought it was disorganized, themeless, I thought it was very, very boring until the end when he started talking about his personal story, which is, of course, remarkable and always important to hear. I personally cannot remember a single policy proposal that he made because they had nothing connecting them. I found it shockingly bad.

The National Review also thought it fell flat:

Ehhhhh...maybe I'm missing some grand strategy or tactics, but I think it was a missed opportunity. Good that he did some policy. I liked that he championed free trade -- something he didn't have to do. I liked the fight, fight, fight stuff. Good that he was specific. I can come up with specific compliments about this or that. But it was flat, forced and basically a free pass for Obama.

The New York Times blog said people were falling asleep:

Sleepy? Our colleague Patrick Healy reports from the floor: There is a delegate in the Utah section and a delegate in Puerto Rico who are both drooping, eyes closed - look asleep - both are men.

ABC News asks whether McCain has a different take on community organizing:

ABC News' Deputy Political Director Karen Travers points out that despite all the "community organizer"-bashing at this convention, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., seems to like the notion, at least based on this passage:

If you find faults with our country, make it a better one. If you're disappointed with the mistakes of government, join its ranks and work to correct them. Enlist in our Armed Forces. Become a teacher. Enter the ministry. Run for public office. Feed a hungry child. Teach an illiterate adult to read. Comfort the afflicted. Defend the rights of the oppressed. Our country will be the better, and you will be the happier. Because nothing brings greater happiness in life than to serve a cause greater than yourself.

If a community organizer isn't someone "defend(ing) the rights of the oppressed," or getting involved to correct the mistakes of government, what is it?


TPM asked if McCain's speech smothered Palin's sizzle?

Not a lot to say about McCain's speech but how on earth did they not avoid this:

Prediction: There will be little to no bounce out of tonight; indeed, McCain's speech will smother Palin's sizzle like a wet blanket.


Time gave it a mixed review:

A mixed performance. The ending worked, though in the hall I doubt anyone could hear him very well as he spoke through the crowd's applause. The final peroration -- "We're Americans. We don't hide from history. We make history" -- was strong stuff.

It also noted McCain's struggle with the Teleprompter.

He's struggling, as he sometimes does -- misplacing the emphasis on words, sounding at times like he's reading the speech for the first time, losing energy during the sections on issues he's never been particularly passionate about, buring applause lines in a string of sentences. It's as if he can't bring himself to pretend he's not reading a teleprompter -- that the charade distracts and frustrates him.
 

Jack Flash

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Sep 10, 2006
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Originally posted by: brencatI'm not a kid anymore and maybe I'm even a bit old-fashioned with some things, but I like to see a few grays on a person for a position this important before I trust them completely.
Then you've got to hate Palin.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
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www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Its a 50/50 toss up.
Except it's not.

Remember how Hillary lost because of that "math problem"?

It's really not as close as you think.

Obama is winning all of Kerry's states by much larger margins than Kerry did in 2004,

plus he's winning enough Bush states by big margins to push him to 270.

What states specifically do you see going from Red to Blue?
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
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Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: Wreckem
Its a 50/50 toss up.
Except it's not.

Remember how Hillary lost because of that "math problem"?

It's really not as close as you think.

Obama is winning all of Kerry's states by much larger margins than Kerry did in 2004,

plus he's winning enough Bush states by big margins to push him to 270.

What states specifically do you see going from Red to Blue?
NM and IA for sure. With all of Kerry's states plus those two, he has 264. He needs six more to win, and here are the states he needs to pull six from:

OH: Obama +1.3 (20 EV)

CO: Obama +2.0 (9 EV)

VA: Obama +1.9 (13 EV)

FL: McCain +1.6 (27 EV)

MT: McCain +0.6 (3 EV)

NV: Tie (5 EV)
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,726
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This may sound partisan but it isn't intended to be-what did people think of McCain's speech? I personally thought the Cindy McCain introduction was painfully bad and way, way too long.

I can't say much about McCain's speech because despite the best intentions and watching it in it's entirely twice, I fell asleep both times. Was it all as tepid and nonspecific as the parts I did see?

 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
349
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Originally posted by: brencat
Originally posted by: Robor
I'm not a kid anymore either - 41 creeping up soon with too many grays to count. Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure Obama's got some grays around the temples too. If he doesn't he's cheating!
I'm 38 and have a LOT of Wall Street-related grays. But there's 40s gray and then there's 60s+ gray. Sorry, the presidency you gotta earn

Ya, Teddy Roosevelt, JFK and Obama are clearly not ready.
 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
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When JP goes into overdrive conducting the leftist spin, you know this convention hit the points it needed to.
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
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Originally posted by: lupi
When JP goes into overdrive conducting the leftist spin, you know this convention hit the points it needed to.
Yeah McCain loves his country. I would hope so, why would anybody who didn't put themselves in a thank less position to try and fix what Bush did over the last 7+ years. The question is why would Americans believe that by following the same policies that Bush has implemented over the last 7+ years it will fix the problems caused by those same policies?
 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
260
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I don't know, maybe cause you listened to the guy and what he says sinks any of the baseless 4 more year spin you're trying to create?


After all, the Palin speech was barely watched by anyonen, just ask JP cause he has those stats.
 
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