Romney Landslide Thread

[dmcowen674]

Romney Landslide Thread

Multiple polls show Romney in huge victory over Obama:


Romney 290 Obama 248

8-23-2012

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/signs-point-romney-victory-except-one-very-big-160549179.html

All signs point to a huge Romney victory


When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.


Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes.



This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures.



If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.


8-20-2012

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...3633312150.1090.101173139981866&type=1&ref=nf

Republican Security Council shows latest poll with Romney in Landslide win

Romney 291 Obama 247

 

[dmcowen674]

Bias, over-confident or right?

 

[Matt1970]

Probably Bias. And you don't need 2 posts. By rule your commentary should be in your first post.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Bias, over-confident or right?

All of the above.

It sincerely pleases me that you are predicting a Romney victory because it just further cements my own view that the President will be re-elected fairly easily.

 

[hal2kilo]

All of the above.

It sincerely pleases me that you are predicting a Romney victory because it just further cements my own view that the President will be re-elected fairly easily.

Ditto.

 

[Pr0d1gy]

And I'm the one who isn't taken seriously, how exactly does that work? lmfao

 

[cybrsage]

dmcowen, who do you think will win the election. I am just curious.

 

[EagleKeeper]

dmcowen, who do you think will win the election. I am just curious.

Dave pulls numbers out of his rear; no correlation to the real world.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Dave pulls numbers out of his rear; no correlation to the real world.

Dave posted Electoral map after Electoral map in 2008 proving how the McCain/Palin ticket was going to sweep into the White House. I especially liked the ones towards the end of the campaign that showed Hawaii solidly Republican...

 

[nehalem256]

Bias, over-confident or right?

Drugs. LOTS of drugs.

 

[Rainsford]

Considering the less biased political analysis (fivethirtyeight is good for that, and has a good track record) is saying something very different, I'm inclined to go with them. At the moment, it looks relatively likely Obama will win...but it's only August after all, a lot can happen before November. Romney is almost certainly playing catchup, which isn't to say he CAN'T catch up.

Personally I think part of the analysis gap issue is that some Republicans believe the hype that they represent the large majority of voters, no matter what. Democrats mainly don't have the same style of rhetoric that casts them as the representative everyman fighting against a small group of "elites" (the Occupy people notwithstanding). The fact that Obama's landslide victory didn't in any way dampen the conservative idea that "Americans" is a synonym for "Republicans" makes me think that's definitely a contributing factor here. Confirmation bias is a pretty major factor in decision making for a reason.

 

[Jhhnn]

Heh. That map is like Louis XIV & Marie Antoinette holed up in the palace at Versailles, Hitler directing non-existent divisions from his bunker in bombed out Berlin, Texas inmates on Death Row holding out for a pardon...

It's not impossible for Romney to win at this point- it'll just take a miracle.

 

[dmcowen674]

8-23-2012

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/signs-point-romney-victory-except-one-very-big-160549179.html

All signs point to a huge Romney victory


When you squint your eyes and look only at the broad historical trends at play in this presidential election, all signs point to a victory for Mitt Romney in November.


Back in February, the Signal's first draft of its elections model, which relied only on historical data, predicted that Obama would win the election with 303 electoral votes.



This model relies heavily on economic indicators and was published before the dismal second quarter economic figures.



If you apply that same model through June, Romney wins with 290 electoral votes to Obama's 248.

 

[PJABBER]

Obama had a great campaign going in 2008, but if the financial crisis did not hit at just that wrong time you would be carping about how 5% unemployment with McCain and Palin in the White House is such a bad, bad thing.

I don't think a landslide is in the works for Romney/Ryan, but I think it will be a clear victory for the Rs this time around as they take the White House and the Senate.

I base this on the same factors that Dave is looking at plus the recent election results of 2010, the energized opposition to Obama's redistribution efforts, the economy killing regulatory onslaught, the federal nationalization efforts, the Obama attacks on religion (about to escalate big time,) the especially poor outlooks for the young and minorities and the fact that being cool has started to grate on so many people.

Possible wild card:

Israel attacks Iran before the election and the Middle East goes nuts. This will happen sooner or later, and sooner is starting to look more and more likely. But, a more opportune time would have been in the past 2, 3, or 4 years years and it didn't happen then, so it might be pushed back again if the Israelis believe Romney will win and they will then have some American support for what they need to do.

Wars prop up incumbents generally, but a Mid-East war that spills over into the US? That closes down a good part of the world's energy supply? This affects Europe, China and other parts of Asia and it will be anyone's guess at that point how an election will go.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

All signs point to a huge Romney victory

The actual article title is: "All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)"

Why did you change the title?

 

[hal2kilo]

Obama had a great campaign going in 2008, but if the financial crisis did not hit at just that wrong time you would be carping about how 5% unemployment with McCain and Palin in the White House is such a bad, bad thing.

I don't think a landslide is in the works for Romney/Ryan, but I think it will be a clear victory for the Rs this time around as they take the White House and the Senate.

I base this on the same factors that Dave is looking at plus the recent election results of 2010, the energized opposition to Obama's redistribution efforts, the economy killing regulatory onslaught, the federal nationalization efforts, the Obama attacks on religion (about to escalate big time,) the especially poor outlooks for the young and minorities and the fact that being cool has started to grate on so many people.

Possible wild card:

Israel attacks Iran before the election and the Middle East goes nuts. This will happen sooner or later, and sooner is starting to look more and more likely. But, a more opportune time would have been in the past 2, 3, or 4 years years and it didn't happen then, so it might be pushed back again if the Israelis believe Romney will win and they will then have some American support for what they need to do.

Wars prop up incumbents generally, but a Mid-East war that spills over into the US? That closes down a good part of the world's energy supply? This affects Europe, China and other parts of Asia and it will be anyone's guess at that point how an election will go.

Links?

 

[PJABBER]

Links?

I am heading out to see a movie, maybe you can do a Google search yourself this time? :awe:

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The actual article title is: "All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)"

Why did you change the title?

Its Dave. There really isn't much more to it. It's like being a Cassandra but with no gift of prophecy.

 

[hal2kilo]

I am heading out to see a movie, maybe you can do a Google search yourself this time? :awe:

That's what I thought. Just your usual made up delusional bullshit.

 

[chucky2]

If Romney wins I'll chug a whole gallon of $10 milk.

 

[Iron Wolf]

If Romney wins I'll chug a whole gallon of $10 milk.

We'll hold you to that.

With over 50% of the country receiving some form of government assistance, I think it can be said that the dems have already bought the election. People don't want to lose what they have, so I don't think they will be forced to leave office.

 

[chucky2]

Oh, absolutely. Everyone on gov bennies is going to be voting Dem if they know what's good from them personally in the here and now...and that is a large % of people, that span normal political boundaries no less.

Romney has a massive hill to climb. I just don't see a Romney climbing that hill.

 

[Pens1566]

fivethirtyeight.com says the exact opposite. Hmmm, who has more credibility? Yep, not the OP.

 

[Lemon law]

Drugs. LOTS of drugs.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am not a big fan of the war on drugs, but there is nothing illegal about the drug of overoptimism and wearing rose colored glasses.

But let me also talk about the two kinds of political landslides. As one implies a 20 or more point popular vote plurality and the other kind involves being buried and many tons of dirt and rock.

Or maybe we can say its not over until the fat lady sings, as I only need cite Todd Akins winning the Misouri GOP Senate nomination just 3 or 4 days ago. As all the Polls said Akins led
his democratic opponent by 30 points. Until Akins opened mouth and inserted foot, and said rape victims did not become pregnant.

As it looks like to me, that Akins got buried by move than a landslide, as its more like avalance when no one accepted his snow job. As Romney may find his avalance from Gawker.

 

[mshan]

Data they inputed into their models is probably off somewhat (i. e. doesn't actually reflect underlying reality as well as it may have in past), specifically because the seasonal adjustment factor government uses to standardize / normalize it's data (so you can compare apple to oranges months for employment such as June vs. December) has been skewed by the economic cliff our economy fell off immediately post stock market crash in winter 2008 / beginning of 2009: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/06/1074731/seasonality-and-jobs-one-more-time/

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=563121



Also, unemployment rate is staggeringly different based upon level of education attained (http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm) or race / sex (http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat07.htm)



Plus that Colorado study predicting 320 electoral votes for Romney also says he will get 53% of popular vote, Obama 47%:

"According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties."


http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...nts-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

(guess they are assuming election takes place on Planet Kolob ) :whiste: