Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

[moonbogg]

My prediction: The entire generation will be 2-3X msrp on ebay and at retailers. RTX 3000 series will be sold along side the 4000 series because only a few will be buying RTX 4000 series who are willing to pay $1500 for what should be a $300 RTX 4060. Not enough supply to meet demand by a long shot, pricing will be through the Oort cloud. PC gaming is dead. Your thoughts?

 

[DrMrLordX]

The problem is people just don't buy AMD GPUs.

You serious?

 

[Shmee]

I suspect power consumption is going to be way up with both sets of GPUs, but some rumors expect AMD to be a bit faster and a bit less power hungry. Whether this turns out to be true, I have no idea yet. That said, I may just skip this entire generation, or at least for a while, as I already have a 3090 which does fine. Now, if I can still sell the 3090 for more than the cost of a better/faster card that is new, then I might hop on the upgrade, but who knows if that is feasible.

I am wondering, if due to rumors saying the memory bus on most of these cards is relatively narrow, (ie. 256 bit max on the Radeon side? If you believe the rumors) then perhaps the mining performance won't be very good on them, coupled with likely higher power draw, and possible winding down of ETH PoW profitability, then maybe people won't be interested in them at all for mining really, at least compared to the previous gen. In this case, I suspect them to be more available, and my 3090 MAY still fetch a premium. Who knows though.

 

[jpiniero]

I am wondering, if due to rumors saying the memory bus on most of these cards is relatively narrow, (ie. 256 bit max on the Radeon side? If you believe the rumors)

At least compared to the improvement in gaming performance, yeah, the raw memory speed isn't increasing much. GDDR7 does increase the speed to potentially 32 Gbps but it's sounding like it won't be a part of the first wave.

 

[moonbogg]

You serious?

Yep. Look at the market share. If everyone was loosing their minds over a new AMD GPU, there'd be a lot more out there, but there isn't.

googling best GPUs for VR returns a PCmag article.

The article: https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-bes...t_uuid=06r4MYCu5PZzCkufjQSV3po&test_variant=b

The summary under the 6800XT: "AMD's Radeon RX 6800 XT impresses in spots with record-breaking results in specific benchmarks, but inconsistent frame rates on several games, and driver-stability issues, keep it from toppling the best of Nvidia's GeForce RTX. "

I'm not buying that card for THOSE reasons and a lot of others aren't either. I won't pay any price, regardless of how cheap, for a fast card that doesn't work. In fact, AMD couldn't pay me to use it. At the end of the day, the card needs to work and serve the purpose it's intended to serve, and AMD GPUs often don't.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Yep. Look at the market share. If everyone was loosing their minds over a new AMD GPU, there'd be a lot more out there, but there isn't.

googling best GPUs for VR returns a PCmag article.

The article: https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-bes...t_uuid=06r4MYCu5PZzCkufjQSV3po&test_variant=b

The summary under the 6800XT: "AMD's Radeon RX 6800 XT impresses in spots with record-breaking results in specific benchmarks, but inconsistent frame rates on several games, and driver-stability issues, keep it from toppling the best of Nvidia's GeForce RTX. "

I'm not buying that card for THOSE reasons and a lot of others aren't either. I won't pay any price, regardless of how cheap, for a fast card that doesn't work. In fact, AMD couldn't pay me to use it. At the end of the day, the card needs to work and serve the purpose it's intended to serve, and AMD GPUs often don't.

Inconsistent frame rates is a far cry from your claim "the cards dont work". Both companies have had their issues but I wouldnt say Nvidia is light years beyond AMD in most mainstream apps. The only feature ive been mildly envious of has been DLSS, and AMD has their own implementation currently (and DLSS was never available on any games ive played anyway so its a moot point).

I havent run an Nvidia card since about 2002 since every single time i go to buy a card, ATI/AMD has been 95-110% of the performance for 70-80% of the price.

I agree Nvidia has more mindshare but a ton of that is due to these clamos that have no basis in reality.

 

[CP5670]

For VR and RT specifically, Nvidia is the way to go. I think it's a toss up for flatscreen gaming, the AMD cards tend to be a bit faster at 1440p and a bit slower at 4K.

I would like to try out an AMD card again at some point (my last one was the superb X1900XTX), but my main gaming PC is too tied to the Nvidia ecosystem and third party tools at this point. Maybe if I ever keep a second PC around, I'll set it up with AMD, especially if they have close performance but much lower power consumption as some of the rumors say.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I've historically bounced back and forth between NV and AMD from generation to generation, and have generally had a good time with whichever manufacturer I went with.

I fully admit that I'm a pretty uninteresting gamer, regular old flatscreen basically my entire life with some very cursory forays into video encoding/photoshop and such so I don't feel AMD's shortcomings quite as much as others do.

My 980Ti upgrade will basically be determined by who is able to get me the most card in the $300-400 range used from this current generation (basically which brand devalues faster on the used market) at the 6700XT/3060Ti level and up.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Yep. Look at the market share.

Maybe you'll have a point once the mining dies down, but over the last few years a lot of gamers have learned to love AMD cards since they paid for themselves. AMD has sold a ton of dGPUs.

 

[Glo.]

Maybe you'll have a point once the mining dies down, but over the last few years a lot of gamers have learned to love AMD cards since they paid for themselves. AMD has sold a ton of dGPUs.

And if you are a Linux user, like I am, and you want to use Open Source drivers - you have no other option. Its either Intel's Paper Launched GPUs, or AMD.

 

[Aapje]

Yep. Look at the market share. If everyone was loosing their minds over a new AMD GPU, there'd be a lot more out there, but there isn't.

This is the worst time to judge the real demand of video cards based on market share, because sales have been entirely restricted by production capacity. AMD lost market share in the CPU market even before the introduction of Alder Lake because they didn't have enough production capacity, despite having the better product. My interpretation of AMD's CPU pricing strategy is that they've been intentionally overpricing at the lower end since they can't meet demand otherwise.

In the GPU market, it's only very recently that you didn't have to win what was essentially a lottery to get a GPU from the AMD drops, but the cards still sell out very quickly, which shows that they clearly could be selling more if they could produce more cards.

 

[VirtualLarry]

but the cards still sell out very quickly, which shows that they clearly could be selling more if they could produce more cards.

This is definitely changing, as most AMD cards that I've seen @ Newegg remain in stock now.

 

[Aapje]

This is definitely changing, as most AMD cards that I've seen @ Newegg remain in stock now.

Yeah, but it is still something that recently changed and thus isn't reflected in the steam statistics.

 

[DrMrLordX]

This is definitely changing, as most AMD cards that I've seen @ Newegg remain in stock now.

Good luck finding one for MSRP tho.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Honestly, what are the chances that an AMD card works like it should for a PC VR setup?

I found out the hard way. Trying to do VR on the XFX RX 580 blew up my Z77 mobo's PCIe lanes. It can never run a dGPU again, ever

 

[uclaLabrat]

I found out the hard way. Trying to do VR on the XFX RX 580 blew up my Z77 mobo's PCIe lanes. It can never run a dGPU again, ever

And I know various cards from both vendors have had issues. Id certainly call VR a much more niche application than regular gaming, and the claims moonbogg has made where Nvidia "just works" whereas AMD cards flat out dont work at all...just lulz.

New world says hi.

 

[CP5670]

I don't think most cases are quite that bad, but AMD seems to often have lower performance/inconsistent frametimes and more compatibility issues in VR (on both the GPU and CPU/platform side). It's unfortunate as the 16GB 6800/6900XT are well suited for VR, which is very vram hungry. PC VR is fiddly to get working in general, and it's best to minimize any potential issues.

 

[Dannar26]

I don't think AMD can charge a premium over Nvidia even if AMD is substantially faster. The problem is people just don't buy AMD GPUs. There is a mental block/mindshare issue that simply STOPS many people from buying AMD cards. They just won't do it.

I agree with you in that there is an attitude about AMD cards just being inferior. You see it everywhere, even among those of us who pay attention to the GPU/Computer DIY space. My earlier joke about the 2.5k (or thereabouts) for a founder's edition 2080 isn't complete sarcasm. I had a co-worker actively telling me it was a good deal. You know, 'cuz Nvidia.

I do however, disagree with your assessment on AMD cards. They typically have the best price/performance ratios out there. Between myself and kids we have (or have had) a 5700xt, rx 580, rx 570, and a r9 290. I even picked up a laptop with a 5600m that was solid, and again for a very generous price.

As you can see, I've been buying AMD stuff since 2014 and I haven't really had any stand out problems. Yes, I may have needed to re-install drivers here or there, but that's either because my kids were doing something odd, or it's just standard computer maintenance. When you have as many PCs as I have in my home, you're bound to run across *some* kind of problem from time to time. I don't think I can blame AMD for any of that.

The only thing I really felt envious of was ray tracing in minecraft. Given even a potato can run that game, I'm sure AMD's offerings for RT are fine for it. Previously it was only Nvidia cards that were compatible. And if you're going the Java route with minecraft, there are much better shaders out there that can be run by any GPU.

Look, even the best computer components run the risk of defects or other minor issues. Being in the DIY space means at some point you're going to encounter problems, and you will need to figure your way out of them. If you feel the premium you're paying to Nvidia is going to preclude you from these issues, well...It's just going to hit you all the harder when your hardware/software/drivers fails just the same as anybody else's.

 

[Aapje]

Nvidia also has better and worse drivers, with a lot of people staying on a specific driver version that is more stable, faster, doesn't have a bug that hurts them, etc. It's not like things are perfect on that side.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Nvidia also has better and worse drivers, with a lot of people staying on a specific driver version that is more stable, faster, doesn't have a bug that hurts them, etc. It's not like things are perfect on that side.

Remember seeing a study like two years ago showing Nvidia had more driver bugs throwing errors in games on average than AMD.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Was that study funded by AMD?

 

[CP5670]

The 4090 reportedly will cost $1899. Actually less than I thought, but I bet they will be marked up well beyond that in practice.

 

[gdansk]

This upcoming generation AMD should be better positioned to compete in volume if they are doing a N6 monolith/N5 chiplet product mix and Nvidia is doing (only?) N5 monoliths only.

 

[Glo.]

Nvidia also has better and worse drivers, with a lot of people staying on a specific driver version that is more stable, faster, doesn't have a bug that hurts them, etc. It's not like things are perfect on that side.

Just recently, Nvidia driver crashed two times during gaming, for me.

Yes, its old GPU, Nvidia GT650M, but it still chuggs along. It was only driver crash.

 

[jpiniero]

This upcoming generation AMD should be better positioned to compete in volume if they are doing a N6 monolith/N5 chiplet product mix and Nvidia is doing (only?) N5 monoliths only.

There's been talk that nVidia might keep Ampere on the market for some time after their first Ada products... presumably as long as they think it can be sold for at least MSRP.

 

[Aapje]

There's been talk that nVidia might keep Ampere on the market for some time after their first Ada products... presumably as long as they think it can be sold for at least MSRP.

That's actually what the CFO said at an investor meeting, so it is not just rumor. However, she referred to them still selling 2060's, so this seems to similarly be a way to create more supply in the face of production shortages, not actually an intended part of the normal line-up once those shortages end/alleviate.