Question RTX 4000/RX 7000 price speculation thread

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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
My prediction: The entire generation will be 2-3X msrp on ebay and at retailers. RTX 3000 series will be sold along side the 4000 series because only a few will be buying RTX 4000 series who are willing to pay $1500 for what should be a $300 RTX 4060. Not enough supply to meet demand by a long shot, pricing will be through the Oort cloud. PC gaming is dead. Your thoughts?
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
That's actually what the CFO said at an investor meeting, so it is not just rumor. However, she referred to them still selling 2060's, so this seems to similarly be a way to create more supply in the face of production shortages, not actually an intended part of the normal line-up once those shortages end/alleviate.

Maybe not normal but I think it's going to be awhile before you see AD106. AD104 and the RDNA3 monolithic is probably faster & more expensive than the 3080.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
It is normal for there to be a transitory period where previous gen is still being sold because the new gen of a similar tier is not released yet. This seems to be about still selling older cards next to the newer cards of the same tier.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
It is normal for there to be a transitory period where previous gen is still being sold because the new gen of a similar tier is not released yet. This seems to be about still selling older cards next to the newer cards of the same tier.

If there's a mining crash I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia doesn't bother releasing AD106 on desktop until the carnage clears out... or maybe never. I think the main focus of AD106 and AD107 is going to be mobile.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,727
3,152
136
I will guess that the 7600XT will use N33 and come in at around $450 for 6900XT tier 1080p/1440p performance, losing ground at 4k.

The 7700XT will likely be N32 and MCM so I see that being around $650.

7800XT will be a cut down N31 at a guess which I see getting close to $1,000

7900XT might have a 32GB super Halo part for $2,000.

While pricing for each tier is going to go up so will the performance and the perf/$ should be pretty strong even with these prices if the rumours are at all close to true.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
If there's a mining crash I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia doesn't bother releasing AD106 on desktop until the carnage clears out... or maybe never. I think the main focus of AD106 and AD107 is going to be mobile.

One of the issues with the current market is that the second hand market has low supply as well because many people are sticking with their cards and some older cards are good at mining, so that creates more room for relatively low performance new cards, but if the second-hand market is flooded, new cards become less competitive compared to second hand.

@Timorous

32 GB seems a bit excessive for a card with mediocre video editing support by software. 16 GB for a cheaper price seems more reasonable. Perhaps offer both with one clocked higher and such?
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,727
3,152
136
One of the issues with the current market is that the second hand market has low supply as well because many people are sticking with their cards and some older cards are good at mining, so that creates more room for relatively low performance new cards, but if the second-hand market is flooded, new cards become less competitive compared to second hand.

@Timorous

32 GB seems a bit excessive for a card with mediocre video editing support by software. 16 GB for a cheaper price seems more reasonable. Perhaps offer both with one clocked higher and such?

2.5x raster opens up the possibility of an 8K card.

I expect there to be a 16GB 7900XT with a full die as well but I think there is a case for the very top card to have 32GB.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
Navi 31 would have to be 512-bit for 32+ GB . Which could happen but unsure if they would really that. AD102 is 384-bit so 24 GB max.

AMD could do double sided I guess. Will say that I would expect 2 GB chips to be used for the most part.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,015
6,465
136
If there's a mining crash I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia doesn't bother releasing AD106 on desktop until the carnage clears out... or maybe never. I think the main focus of AD106 and AD107 is going to be mobile.

Won't matter if AMD launches a new card in that segment. I doubt NVidia will want to stretch the 104 die all the way down to the 4060 just to have something out. Even if AMD doesn't launch until later it still won't matter.

If there's a mining bust NVidia is competing with used cards regardless of whether they're selling mid-range Ampere, mid-range Lovelace, or only just high-end Lovelace.

Even if they try to keep prices high people will just snag a cheap used 3060 and wait until AD-102 and AD-104 dies come down in price.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
Won't matter if AMD launches a new card in that segment. I doubt NVidia will want to stretch the 104 die all the way down to the 4060 just to have something out. Even if AMD doesn't launch until later it still won't matter.

Yields are extremely good on N5 which actually makes things simple. They shouldn't need to do more than one cut except for AD102.

and wait until AD-102 and AD-104 dies come down in price.

Except it won't because of TSMC prices. AMD can easily reallocate wafers to some other product if need be. nVidia will presumably focus on faster & more expensive and continue to ship Ampere to OEMs.
 
Last edited:

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,011
2,279
136
Nvidia stock stumbles after Baird voices concern about graphics business

Shares of Nvidia Corp. shares were slipping Monday after an analyst took a more cautious outlook on the company’s gaming business.
Baird’s Tristan Gerra downgraded Nvidia’s stock NVDA, -1.68% to neutral from outperform, writing of his concerns about excess inventory for consumer graphics processing units (GPUs). The shares were off 5.1% in afternoon trading.

“We believe order cancellations recently started in consumer GPUs, driven by excess inventories, a slowdown in consumer demand (reflected by an ongoing reduction in graphic cards pricing), slowdown in PC demand, and the Russia embargo,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Gerra thinks that the consensus view might be underestimating the percentage of Nvidia’s consumer GPU business that’s linked to Russia. Additionally, he believes that demand has dampened in China, which he said represents an estimated 25% to 30% of the market for consumer GPUs.

Further, he worries about the upcoming Ethereum fork, which is expected to drive reselling of GPUs no longer needed for Ethereum mining. That dynamic could put additional pressure on prices, Gerra wrote...
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
Lots of mining seems to have shifted from China to Russia after the former cracked down on it, as Russia also has low energy prices and Putin seems to be in favor.
 

DeathReborn

Platinum Member
Oct 11, 2005
2,757
753
136
Navi 31 would have to be 512-bit for 32+ GB . Which could happen but unsure if they would really that. AD102 is 384-bit so 24 GB max.

AMD could do double sided I guess. Will say that I would expect 2 GB chips to be used for the most part.

You do realise that the RTX A6000 has 48GB of VRAM on a 384bit bus, the 3090Ti could be 48GB too if they stuck VRAM on the back of the card again.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
Nvidia stock stumbles after Baird voices concern about graphics business

Shares of Nvidia Corp. shares were slipping Monday after an analyst took a more cautious outlook on the company’s gaming business.
Baird’s Tristan Gerra downgraded Nvidia’s stock NVDA, -1.68% to neutral from outperform, writing of his concerns about excess inventory for consumer graphics processing units (GPUs). The shares were off 5.1% in afternoon trading.

“We believe order cancellations recently started in consumer GPUs, driven by excess inventories, a slowdown in consumer demand (reflected by an ongoing reduction in graphic cards pricing), slowdown in PC demand, and the Russia embargo,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Gerra thinks that the consensus view might be underestimating the percentage of Nvidia’s consumer GPU business that’s linked to Russia. Additionally, he believes that demand has dampened in China, which he said represents an estimated 25% to 30% of the market for consumer GPUs.

Further, he worries about the upcoming Ethereum fork, which is expected to drive reselling of GPUs no longer needed for Ethereum mining. That dynamic could put additional pressure on prices, Gerra wrote...

Remove the profit incentive from mining and all you're left with is an overpriced tech-thingy that runs games.
 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,015
6,465
136
Yields are extremely good on N5 which actually makes things simple. They shouldn't need to do more than one cut except for AD102.

It doesn't matter if yields are good. They still need to bin the silicon and they'll disable working cores that can't hit target clock speeds within a targeted voltage threshold.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
It doesn't matter if yields are good. They still need to bin the silicon

If that ends up being an issue then possibly they could do something like they did with Turing... where they offer AIBs a worse quality bin for slightly less but still technically meets the official specs.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
The better the yields, the easier it is to use the same chip in multiple products, since they can make many chips that are fairly close to the full silicon and then create a good gap to the same chip with a bunch of cores disabled, and then perhaps even another decent gap to another product.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,015
6,465
136
If that ends up being an issue then possibly they could do something like they did with Turing... where they offer AIBs a worse quality bin for slightly less but still technically meets the official specs.

Even with Turing there were 4+ bins for most of the chips by the end of the product cycle. TU-104 was used for the 2080, 2080 SUPER, 2070 SUPER and the mobile variants of the same. That's 6 different bins without counting the Max Q mobile parts. There was even a 2060 variant that was a heavily cut down 104 die, so technically 7 bins.
 

aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
20,882
3,230
126
I think again ultimately my deciding factor will be on what Threadripper comes out with.
If the next Gen HEDT's are trash, like how they are now, then i guess i will get whatever gives me the most performance without breaking the 5th wall in budget.

But if next gen HEDT's are good, then if its intel, i would probably go with NVidia's solution, and if its Threadripper, i will most likely go with the RX solution provided SAM improvements are out there, and SAM works as intended.

But AMD's only downside is the lack of driver updates.
Nvidia is poping drivers updates at a rate of 3-4x what AMD has.
This is why i keep with Nvidia, otherwise i would of probably went on 6900XT's and not my 3090 seeing how it was 40% cheaper @ a less then 5% performance benifit.
 

Hail The Brain Slug

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2005
3,248
1,693
136
I think again ultimately my deciding factor will be on what Threadripper comes out with.
If the next Gen HEDT's are trash, like how they are now, then i guess i will get whatever gives me the most performance without breaking the 5th wall in budget.

But if next gen HEDT's are good, then if its intel, i would probably go with NVidia's solution, and if its Threadripper, i will most likely go with the RX solution provided SAM improvements are out there, and SAM works as intended.

But AMD's only downside is the lack of driver updates.
Nvidia is poping drivers updates at a rate of 3-4x what AMD has.
This is why i keep with Nvidia, otherwise i would of probably went on 6900XT's and not my 3090 seeing how it was 40% cheaper @ a less then 5% performance benifit.

Nvidia is releasing 6-12 driver updates a month?

Genuinely asking because AMD is releasing 2-3, and on the rare occasion 4 a month.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
2,031
106
Nvidia is releasing 6-12 driver updates a month?

Genuinely asking because AMD is releasing 2-3, and on the rare occasion 4 a month.

Nvidia has about 2 updates a month. Not sure why it matters though. I want good drivers, not frequent installs.

Nvidia quite often has known problems that take quite a while to fix, so it's not like a driver update fixes all existing bugs. That doesn't seem any different for AMD, although I'm not sure how well they are at fixing bugs exactly.
 
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