[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

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Head1985

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2014
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Referring to Glo post and Adoredtv in general, it is simply lazy analysis and an over simplification to make AMD to make the free viral marketers for them to work harder. This is because it triggers an emotional response from people.

When AMD has a strong product like the 4870 and 5870 and price it well, AMD is able to get somewhere in the high 30's to mid 40 in terms of marketshare. Adored simplifies this to people not recognizing AMD product and how good they are for the price, but when you look at the 18% marketshare they carry today, people are recognizing it.

Big shifts in marketshare do not happen overnight. Whether it is the mobilephone industry, clothing industry shoe industry and every other industry. The market has favorites which allow them a greater marketshare at the same price/perfomance because brands do carry value. Companies have to consistently deliver over and over again to become the market leader and the superior brand. However this is not the only reason why Nvidia was able to maintain their marketshare.

Look at adores analysis of the Fermi generation and he completely omits of the GTX 460/560 ti because it weakens his argument tremendously. These cards were extremely well priced and was target at the mainstream segment which carries higher volume than the enthusiast segment adored was focused on.

https://www.anandtech.co2m/show/3809/nvidias-geforce-gtx-460-the-200-king

Combine high volume card at superior price to performance than the competition on top of being the favored brand in the marketplace and it should be no surprise Nvidia was able to counter AMD and maintain their marketshare lead. The gtx 460/560 marketshare volume was greater than the GTX the GTX 480/580/5870/5850/5770 combined.

Another thing helping Nvidia was their relations with system builders/manufactures due to their driver support(before AMD cleaned up their drivers) and stronger brand.

Similarly, when the 4870 launched, Nvidia dropped their prices the next day and quickly launched the GTX 270 216 core, added game bundles(which AMD didn't really have since Roy Taylor was not with the company yet). Nonetheless the 48xx series took a tonne of marketshare back.

If we want to see a gigantic disparity between price/performance not translating into sales, look at the CPU market. Ryzen has dramatically better price to performance than Intel's processors. Much more than their GPUs and look at their marketshare.



Even with the strength of Ryzen 2 years later, AMD is still under 20 percent marketshare(under 10 percent in the server market). Intel has been mostly rehashing the skylake architecture, had security blunders and increasing the price of their products and they are still able to keep most of the marketshare. Intel has been poorly executing unlike Nvidia.

Intels launches have been generally mediocre since the skylake launch(including skylake) and their processors still sell incredibly well.

So should AMD give up because they are not getting 50% marketshare even though their processors command vastly better price to performance. Now they should not because those 5% marketshare gains in the market are because of the superior price to performance which still translate into 40-50% more processors year on year.

So at a lower pricing and higher price to performance, AMD was succeeding when they offered better price to performance than Nvidia. The idiotic notions that complete marketshare shifts happen when a company develops a superior product overnight is ridiculous and naive to how real business work. AMD succeeded when they gained near 50% marketshare in the discrete market. Although they did not outsell Nvidia, they doubled their marketshare compared to now. If we measure the success of a product purely based on being able to get more marketshare than the competition, Ryzen and threadripper are out right failures because they did not remotely get 50% marketshare. So why don't we get the same CPU mindshare argument/narrative from AMD vs Intel. It's because Nvidia is a easier company to hate and hate allows irrational arguments to get traction.

Intel's questionable(and illegal business behavior) occured over 10 years ago.This makes the hate against intel generally forgotten and the illogical arguments would simply be picked apart without the emotions distorting the validity of the argument. The same thing cannot be said for Nvidia. Nvidia have not done anything so outright bad as Intel but their small acts do add up and are somewhat numerous.(founders edition, poor driver support when arch comes out, bad performance with some game works games, the abrasiveness and cockiness of CEO).
I agree.NV always had really great cards when AMD released something good.Thats why they kept market share.
AMD dropped 4870 and nv immediately lowered price on GTX260 and price it bellow 4870(because it was slower) and 3months later released GTX260 216core and priced it same as 4870(because same perf as 4870).
https://www.anandtech.com/show/2619
AMD released 4890 and nv counter it with gtx275
They also released GTX285 only for 400usd.That was top single GPU.Something like todays 3500USD TITAN RTX..

AMD dropped 5850/5870 and nv released GTX460/560TI
So yeah its not like amd released better cards and NV not do anything at all.They reduced priced to same level or even bellow AMD cards few days after amds launch and then they relased great cards like GTX460/560TI.Thats why they kept market share.And not because "people dont buy AMD no matter what" crap

Edit: only way i think AMD can beat NV is releasing something like radeon 9700pro
From todays perspective:
Something 30% faster than 2080TI with less power consuption and for 600usd.Nv will of course reduce price of 2080TI to 550usd just like they did it with GTX260, but they will be still slower and more power hungry.
AND AMD need scale that GPU down to entry level and in every segment be way faster and cheaper and consume less power(its really not that hard with turing crap prices).So even if NV reduces prices of all cards they will still be slower and more power hungry in every tier.
Also AMD need be prepared for NVs 7nm response so they need have already new cards ready for launch in 2020 with +60% perf in all tiers vs their "current" already better cards and release them right before or within week after NV launches their 7nm cards.So nv cards will look like crap for another "generation" vs amd cards.And people will see that AMD beat them in second time in row.
Yeah its crazy but i think only if this happen AMD will gain like 70% market share in next 2years and will be number one for good.
 
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Rannar

Member
Aug 12, 2015
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For all the people asking why AMD wasn't doing better in the days of the 4000 and 5000 series GPUs, one answer to that is drivers. AMD had substantially inferior drivers to Nvidia until a couple of years ago. Even now, though their drivers are competitive in overall quality, they lag far behind on OpenGL.

With 5000 series AMD was also production limited so expecting quick market share rise with better products was too optimistic. I remember multiple reports TSMC could not produce enough 40mn wafers and AMD was 6+ months production limited.
 

Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
564
780
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My bad, i was looking at the techpowerup, site.Still, its between 15 and 35% so , depends.
However it would still be too close to VII, which is more like a 1080Ti performance.
VII will probably be EOL'd once Navi lands
 
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Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
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VII will probably be EOL'd once Navi lands
Not according to AMD's slides: https://wccftech.com/amd-7nm-ryzen-3000-epyc-rome-radeon-navi-availability-confirmed-q3-2019/

As for past AMD lacking success with good cards, there's a lot of forgetfulness/revisionist history. Most of the great AMD cards were not great when released. The performance was much worse then it would eventually end up 3 years later, the drivers had issues that took years to get resolved, the coolers were not up to the job and sounded like jet planes. e.g. the great 5870 couldn't drive 120hz screens for years. Sure it was cheap and fast, but a 120hz monitor was more important to me in fps gaming so it was off my list.

This has been the same for most AMD releases - the fcat timing rpoblems, the grey screens, many many driver issues (it normally takes a good year for an AMD card to get reliable drivers). Even recent releases like Vega suffered horribly from dodgy drivers in the early days.

Nvidia releases by comparison were so much smoother - not perfect (e.g. the 2080 space invaders) - but much better then AMD and these are the reasons people continue to buy Nvidia. It's more then just performance numbers, it's past experience - "I tried AMD once years ago, it was hell, I have used Nvidia since" - most people just want to play games, not fight with issues for a few $ or % performance. That's why Nvidia does well, and that is what AMD have to turn around. You can't do that quickly, you have to consistently release good hardware and good software while hoping the opposition slips up.
 
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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,400
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there's a lot of forgetfulness/revisionist history.
Nvidia releases by comparison were so much smoother - not perfect (e.g. the 2080 space invaders) - but much better then AMD and these are the reasons people continue to buy Nvidia.
My Dell XPS13 and XPS15 would like to have a word with you about Bumpgate. "Not perfect" is quite the euphemism for an entire generation of faulty Nvidia GPUs that eventually died anywhere from 6 months to 3-5 years of usage. It seems forgetfulness and revisionist history is fully working in the Nvidia camp too, but hey, it's understandable, we all want to put this kind of crap behind us, otherwise we'd be talking about wood screws all day long.
 
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Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
My Dell XPS13 and XPS15 would like to have a word with you about Bumpgate. "Not perfect" is quite the euphemism for an entire generation of faulty Nvidia GPUs that eventually died anywhere from 6 months to 3 years of usage. It seems forgetfulness and revisionist history is fully working in the Nvidia camp too, but hey, it's understandable, we all want to put this kind of crap behind us, otherwise we'd be talking about wood screws all day long.
Who was actually bought a card with wood screws - no one. That you have to bring up that as a reason for bad Nvidia releases says a lot. Nvidia is not perfect, just a lot better then AMD. If AMD want sales then they need to get better at releases. Then people will slowly switch to buying their cards and we won't have to have AMD fans complaining that no matter what AMD does everyone just buys Nvidia anyway.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,400
12,845
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Who was actually bought a card with wood screws - no one. That you have to bring up that as a reason for bad Nvidia releases says a lot. Nvidia is not perfect, just a lot better then AMD.
Did you just reply to my post reminding you about Bumpgate and focused only on the wood screw joke?

I guess I'll take it: nobody bought cards with wood screws, they bought cards with chip bumps that slowly cracked after repeated thermal stress, all of them. The Dell XPS 13 had it's mainboard replaced 4 times at 6 months intervals in a Dell authorized center and the Dell XPS 15 managed to die on me just outside of the "extended" warranty period. I continued to be an Nvidia customer after this, as I buy hardware on the merits of the hardware generation, not some weirdly misunderstood brand allegiance that keeps body counts on one side and cherished memories on the other.

You want to talk about Nvidia's better brand appeal? Sure go ahead, I'll agree on the spot. But don't attempt to rewrite history in front of everybody.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,805
11,161
136
If the 2080TI has come in at the 1080TI price point I don’t think we would have seen the VII.

Highly probable.

As far as brand appeal goes . . . I am still irritated with Intel over a LOT of things they did in the past, along with nVidia. So count me in the "weirdly misunderstood" category. At least now I limit this behavior to my own purchasing decisions. If AMD does something to make me hate them then I don't know what I'll do.
 
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Mar 11, 2004
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Did you just reply to my post reminding you about Bumpgate and focused only on the wood screw joke?

I guess I'll take it: nobody bought cards with wood screws, they bought cards with chip bumps that slowly cracked after repeated thermal stress, all of them. The Dell XPS 13 had it's mainboard replaced 4 times at 6 months intervals in a Dell authorized center and the Dell XPS 15 managed to die on me just outside of the "extended" warranty period. I continued to be an Nvidia customer after this, as I buy hardware on the merits of the hardware generation, not some weirdly misunderstood brand allegiance that keeps body counts on one side and cherished memories on the other.

You want to talk about Nvidia's better brand appeal? Sure go ahead, I'll agree on the spot. But don't attempt to rewrite history in front of everybody.

Yeah Bumpgate I think is the main reason that Apple has stuck with AMD for like 10 years now. Nvidia really hosed OEMs on that one. It wasn't just OEMs either though, as I remember quite a bit of people baking their Nvidia cards in the oven to try and extend the life of their cards (which, if I remember, was not actually a smart thing to do, wonder if people might end up with health issues over that), not unlike the people wrapping their 360s with a towel to try and make them get as hot as possible to reflow the solder.

Nvidia has had LOTS of driver issues as well so that argument is just plain ridiculous (not saying you're saying that, talking about the person you're responding to). If I remember right Nvidia was responsible for something like 1/3 of the bugs that Vista got trashed for (even though Microsoft had told companies they were making big changes and gave them plenty of lead time to prepare for them). And plenty of Nvidia cards take time to perform where people claim they do (remember when wasn't like an RX 480 outdoing 1070 in Vulkan Doom early on?). Heck remember when Nvidia killed performance of their own cards with their idiotic levels of tessellation (including a massive completely non-visible mesh in was it Crysis 2, that served no purpose other than to cripple performance of anything that wasn't Nvidia's latest cards before users complained and Nvidia gave the developer the ability to reduce the tessellation factor)?

Just checked, it was 30% of Vista crashes:
https://www.engadget.com/2008/03/27/nvidia-drivers-responsible-for-nearly-30-of-vista-crashes-in-20/

I also still remember the Focus Group mod here raging "there's no driver that's killing cards!" before then going "make sure to use this driver so that ____ doesn't happen" (which was what was killing cards, as it was letting them go into some crazed power use that melted VRMs off the cards) after a driver update had removed I think the "power virus throttling" that companies had started implementing after I think Furmark was being used to show insane power use, so it literally was a driver update killing cards.

Heck on FCAT stuff I seem to recall Nvidia was hardly perfect there either (and once AMD was fine Nvidia suddenly didn't care about it any more).

Neither company is perfect. And I hope people don't think Nvidia isn't capable of screwups themselves (there's ample evidence to the contrary, talk about revisionist history).
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,485
2,362
136
Did you just reply to my post reminding you about Bumpgate and focused only on the wood screw joke?

I guess I'll take it: nobody bought cards with wood screws, they bought cards with chip bumps that slowly cracked after repeated thermal stress, all of them. The Dell XPS 13 had it's mainboard replaced 4 times at 6 months intervals in a Dell authorized center and the Dell XPS 15 managed to die on me just outside of the "extended" warranty period. I continued to be an Nvidia customer after this, as I buy hardware on the merits of the hardware generation, not some weirdly misunderstood brand allegiance that keeps body counts on one side and cherished memories on the other.

You want to talk about Nvidia's better brand appeal? Sure go ahead, I'll agree on the spot. But don't attempt to rewrite history in front of everybody.
Not to defend nVidia, but Dell XPS13 has never had nVidia graphics, it always used integrated Intel graphics. You can't blame dell's xps13 quality control failures on nvidia.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
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Not to defend nVidia, but Dell XPS13 has never had nVidia graphics, it always used integrated Intel graphics. You can't blame dell's xps13 quality control failures on nvidia.

Its true that current models do not, but the XPS 13 during the time of bumpgate (2009/2010) did use nVidia chipset (nForce) and GPU.
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
305
322
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While i agree that amd certainly needed better drivers, i think they already have better ones then nvidia.
And i REALLY doubt many people were put off by opengl thing.To me its the launches, with consistently bad cooling so they were getting the opinion of very loud, also launch day drivers were badish.
We got basically the same thing with vegas and VII.They need good coverage on day 1, not 2 months later with aib cards and fixed issues.

AMD drivers were worse early on. Particularly before the big focus during the 7970 and after the console driver win.

However prior to this, particularly when it comes to laptop, they were significantly behind.

Laptop support in particular was horrific. For laptops, the only updated drivers one could obtain at one point were community developed drivers known as Omega drivers(not the AMD official performance drivers). I killed one of my laptops using these drivers, because they were not officially endorsed or tested by AMD.

There was a reason even during the Fermi Generation, even with AMD performance per watt advantage, it didn't translate into an autowin and Nvidia still had the performance lead in laptops.

Todays AMD's drivers are much better for stability but AMD needs to realize one thing badly. How important Day 1 drivers are because it determines the performance in reviews. The single biggest and most important marketing material for GPU releases. Even AMD fans admit that day 1 driver performance for AMD cards is kind of mediocre and that saying something considering how forgiving they are for AMD. Nvidia on the other hand have very good drivers day 1 which usually leads to Nvidia getting better reviews when going head to head with AMD cards.

When you add that Nvidia generally prices their cards with the same price with leads to slightly better price to performance, you see things like the GTX 1060 getting the nod over cards like the RX480.

On the other hand AMD sometimes badly prices their products on their own which leads to their own downfall in reviews when compounded with the initial driver deficits. Nvidia did this with turing recently but with the lack of competition and the lack of competition for 8+ months, they largely got away with it. But AMD badly prices their products when competition is already present. Vega 64 and the RX 590 come to mind. Vega 64 did not get positive reviews because upon release, its performance was slightly worse than a gtx 1080 with vastly worse power consumption.

What AMD and some of there fans forgot are people are much more forgiving when it comes to noise and power consumption when you obtain the performance crown. When both are thrown out the window leading to only obtain a 3rd place finish, people should not be surprised when reviews are not positive.






On top of coming 17 months later than the competition, Vega broke records for power consumption while coming in much slower than the Nvidia's flagship the GTX 1080 ti. Add this all together and it was an even worse card than Fermi, being slower relative to the competition, more power hungry and late. It's enough that AMD fans stopped bringing up Fermi when it comes to inefficiency and delays. Add the funky pricing(mostly game bundled $599 cards for the first 2 months) and it was a disaster that was saved by mining.

What AMD doesn't realize is these disappointments are hurting their goodwill and leading to the general public to not wait for their cards and stop believing their Viral marketing leaks(e.g AdoredtV). This was already eroded during the Fiji and Polaris launch(lots of people were expecting something along the lines of GTX 980 ti speeds). Vega was the ultimate let down because of the hype(poor volta) and the results. It's not a surprise that people are skeptical of the Navi launch.

AMD needs to match the hype with their launches if they are going to continue to use guerrilla viral marketing.
 
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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
6,400
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Not to defend nVidia, but Dell XPS13 has never had nVidia graphics, it always used integrated Intel graphics. You can't blame dell's xps13 quality control failures on nvidia.
This is the laptop I had: Dell XPS M1330. Soon after that it was followed by a model called Studio XPS 13 and then XPS 13. The bigger 15" model from the same year was called Dell XPS M1530.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,008
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Not to defend nVidia, but Dell XPS13 has never had nVidia graphics, it always used integrated Intel graphics. You can't blame dell's xps13 quality control failures on nvidia.

Intel didn’t even have integrated graphics when bumpgate happened so it would have been impossible for them to have bought such a laptop even if they’re wrong on the name of the laptop.

Before that the Northbridge was on a separate package and NVidia made chipsets for both Intel and AMD CPUs. There was a big legal battle around the time Intel switched over to their own integrated graphics since they didn’t want customers to use other stuff so they were refusing to let NV license their technology that would have been necessary to sell graphics chipsets. I forget how it all turned out but I’m pretty sure NVidia moved to selling only discrete cards after that.
 

RaV666

Member
Jan 26, 2004
76
34
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@Tajoh

I kinda dont get your post, because if you read what you were quoting me in , its basically very similar to what you said .
We are not mostly in disagreement here.
I mean i dont think that vega as a piece of hardware is a massive failure.But most of your points i agree with.
Drivers were worse back in time.Their good now, as a whole, but yes, day 1 drivers are often plagued with some bullshit and thats bad.
Vega 64 wasnt 1080Ti contender so i dont get this comparison.But i really think that what kills amd launches is noise/power.
VII for example is a really nice card, but it got mostly bad reviews because drivers sucked and it was a jet engine on stock.People had enough with the noise.With pascal nvidia could get away with blowers because of low tdp, with turing they stepped up the game.AMD somehow managed to produce 3 fan solution at the same TDP as vega 64 with THE SAME NOISE XD.
I mean VII is being sold in europe below msrp, if sapphire had a model with their nitro cooling, i would get one.But not with this reference crap.
590 was a bad move also, they probably had a meeting some months before and were still betting on the mining craze.Bad price.
They have to have ryzen mindset with their gpus now.Maybe slower performance, but give more die area, and a good price.They are so deep in regression in market share that they HAVE TO DO IT to get mindshare back.
If they price navi at the nvidia level.Their gonna fail.
 

tviceman

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2008
6,734
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Are we making performance predictions in this thread about Navi's release in Q3? I'm going with 65% faster than a RX 580 (or about 70% faster than the RX 480) at about 190-195 watt power draw. So I think it'll end up around 15% slower than the RTX 2070 with the same power draw.

So basically a tiny bit faster than the RTX 2060, with higher power consumption, for $330.
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,485
2,362
136
I had an XPS 13 and it sported an nvidia 8400M, exactly the one they were referring to (I had to have a motherboard changed too)
My bad guys, I didn't realize you were referring to prehistoric 12 year old XPS lineup.
 

mattiasnyc

Senior member
Mar 30, 2017
356
337
136
As far as the VII goes there are indeed people that use it for video professionally, and it seems to offer great value depending on the specific niche you're in. No real reason why AMD wouldn't continue that if there's no downside to it.

Not everything on the (video) planet revolves around gaming.
 

happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
14,387
480
126
Any Navi card that's less than 40% faster at the same price bracket is a fail in my opinion.
$130 Rx570 successor as fast as a 1660ti.
$180 RX580 successor as fast as a gtx1070ti/Vega64,
$300 Vega 56 successor as fast as a gtx1080ti.
$400 Vega 64 successor as fast as a rtx2080 .
a $650 Vega Vll successor faster than a 2080ti early next year.

All with 40% lower power at the same performance tier.

Anything less on 7nm, to me ,is a fail.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
Any Navi card that's less than 40% faster at the same price bracket is a fail in my opinion.
$130 Rx570 successor as fast as a 1660ti.
$180 RX580 successor as fast as a gtx1070ti/Vega64,
$300 Vega 56 successor as fast as a gtx1080ti.
$400 Vega 64 successor as fast as a rtx2080 .
a $650 Vega Vll successor faster than a 2080ti early next year.

All with 40% lower power at the same performance tier.

Anything less on 7nm, to me ,is a fail.

Then you better prepare for fail Your expectation are exceeding what AMD can realistically achieve, given that they are not NVidia. In addition i do assume thats only looking at standard rasterization performance - when including raytracing into the picture i expect the outcome to be much worse.
 
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