[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

[Trumpstyle]

Guys late April Nvidia released drivers improving its Gpus in Strange brigarde about 15% in 1440p and 25% in 4k. This radeon card performances should land exactly at 2070 or slightly below.

Check hardwareunboxed latest radeon 7 vega video for performances confirmation and here is linked to the drivers.

https://www.nvidia.com/download/driverResults.aspx/146343/en-us

 

[tviceman]

Guys late April Nvidia released drivers improving its Gpus in Strange brigarde about 15% in 1440p and 25% in 4k. This radeon card performances should land exactly at 2070 or slightly below.

Check hardwareunboxed latest radeon 7 vega video for performances confirmation and here is linked to the drivers.

https://www.nvidia.com/download/driverResults.aspx/146343/en-us

Indeed, you may be right. On the very recent Techspot revisit of Radeon VII vs. RTX 2080, the two cards are tied at 4k. Given that the Radeon VII came out 9% slower overall at 4k, Strange Brigade still favors AMD but not nearly as much as before Nvidia was able to bring significant performance uplifts. In this case, Navi might compete with RTX 2070 across the board, which would be great news. I won't hold my breath though.

 

[AtenRa]

I dont care if it is 5% faster or 5% slower than RTX2070, i care about what price it will launch.

If it is 5% slower than RTX2070 but launch at $299 , count me in.
If they are both equal and NAVI launch at $399, I will wait for the smaller SKU that will compete against the RTX2060.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I dont care if it is 5% faster or 5% slower than RTX2070, i care about what price it will launch.

Ain't that the truth. Everyone who was in the market for Polaris over the last three years is saying the saaaaame thing.

Can we get Navi at $279 or less, please? Preferably $239 or less?

 

[JDG1980]

Anandtech's Andrei Frumusanu estimates a die size of 275mm^2 from the photo.

 

[tviceman]

Ain't that the truth. Everyone who was in the market for Polaris over the last three years is saying the saaaaame thing.

Can we get Navi at $279 or less, please? Preferably $239 or less?

It's a bigger die than Polaris, on a more expensive node than Polaris, using more expensive memory than Polaris. This particular product (the one being compared to the RTX 2070) is NOT going to be $279, let alone $239. It will be anywhere from $329-399. $299 if we are REALLY lucky.

 

[DrMrLordX]

It's a bigger die than Polaris, on a more expensive node than Polaris, using more expensive memory than Polaris. This particular product (the one being compared to the RTX 2070) is NOT going to be $279, let alone $239. It will be anywhere from $329-399. $299 if we are REALLY lucky.

They could have spun a GDDR5 Navi with a smaller die. But they didn't . . . or so it seems.

 

[AtenRa]

If RX5700 is that close to RTX2070 no way it will be bellow $399.

I dont like it as a consumer but I believe AMD this time got it right from a business perspective with NAVI.
Reaching close to RTX 2070 performance for $100 less is best business practice.

 

[AtenRa]

Ok prediction time,

If the chip is ~270mm2 then it should have between 10B and 11B transistors.

My prediction for a full NAVI 270mm2 chip at 160-170W TDP is at +10% to 15% over VEGA 64.

From a consumer point of view, if this comes at $399 then we are back to 2017 again but only with half the power consumption.
From a current market point of view, it should be adequate to compete directly with RTX2070 but at those price points it will not be a high volume product and we will have to wait for the smaller NAVI that will compete against RTX2060 and bellow.

 

[SPBHM]

If RX5700 is that close to RTX2070 no way it will be bellow $399.

I dont like it as a consumer but I believe AMD this time got it right from a business perspective with NAVI.
Reaching close to RTX 2070 performance for $100 less is best business practice.

I think that's not enough, Nvidia can easily drop the 2070 to that or 450,
2070 is already poorly priced because of the 2060, which suffers pressure for the 1060ti

if they want to have an impact in the market and their card is on average slower than the 2070 (seems likely given the only 10% advantage on the test they choose to show) they need to target at least $299.

 

[AtenRa]

I think that's not enough, Nvidia can easily drop the 2070 to that or 450,
2070 is already poorly priced because of the 2060, which suffers pressure for the 1060ti

if they want to have an impact in the market and their card is on average slower than the 2070 (seems likely given the only 10% advantage on the test they choose to show) they need to target at least $299.

NVIDIA cannot afford a price war dropping RTX 2070 too close to RTX2060 (both using the same TU106 445mm2 chip) against 270mm2 NAVI. They will hold prices because they have the Brand recognition.

 

[tviceman]

Ok prediction time,

If the chip is ~270mm2 then it should have between 10B and 11B transistors.

My prediction for a full NAVI 270mm2 chip at 160-170W TDP is at +10% to 15% over VEGA 64.

From a consumer point of view, if this comes at $399 then we are back to 2017 again but only with half the power consumption.
From a current market point of view, it should be adequate to compete directly with RTX2070 but at those price points it will not be a high volume product and we will have to wait for the smaller NAVI that will compete against RTX2060 and bellow.

I actually don't think that is a bad prediction, but I think those are best case scenarios. I think it'll be 175-190w TDP and be AT MOST 10% faster than Vega64.

 

[SPBHM]

NVIDIA cannot afford a price war dropping RTX 2070 too close to RTX2060 (both using the same TU106 445mm2 chip) against 270mm2 NAVI. They will hold prices because they have the Brand recognition.

they are selling that chip with a card for $349 already for over 6 months when Navi is out... also I assume 7nm is more expensive than what Nvidia is using right now, so you can't just compare die sizes and assume the cost is 100% relative to that, there is also the rest of the card, if it's actually using less power than a 2070 and will use cheaper pcb/components...

$399 for a card around the rtx 2070 (but without RTX) in July 2019 is not going to bother Nvidia much.
$299 is a different story.

 

[AtenRa]

they are selling that chip with a card for $349 already for over 6 months when Navi is out... also I assume 7nm is more expensive than what Nvidia is using right now, so you can't just compare die sizes and assume the cost is 100% relative to that, there is also the rest of the card, if it's actually using less power than a 2070 and will use cheaper pcb/components...

$399 for a card around the rtx 2070 (but without RTX) in July 2019 is not going to bother Nvidia much.
$299 is a different story.

They launched VEGA Vii at the same MSRP as RTX2080, now that they will have a more competitive card (both in performance and power consumption) against a $499 MSRP RTX2070 they will price it at $299 ??? No way, $399 and $499 are still low volume segment, they dont want to handicap NAVI 14 that will be way smaller and compete directly against RTX2060 by lowering the MSRP of the low volume RTX2070 competitor.

 

[SPBHM]

They launched VEGA Vii at the same MSRP as RTX2080, now that they will have a more competitive card (both in performance and power consumption) against a $499 MSRP RTX2070 they will price it at $299 ??? No way, $399 and $499 are still low volume segment, they dont want to handicap NAVI 14 that will be way smaller and compete directly against RTX2060 by lowering the MSRP of the low volume RTX2070 competitor.

Radeon 7 is a more complex card made to be sold as overpriced enterprise card first, a low volume product, I remember many people on this forum didn't even believe it would be sold as gaming card...

navi is a gaming GPU first using GDDR6 like the 1060 ti-2060-2070, if they are going to try and price match Nvidia while lacking RT and the brand recognition... they are not going to recover much market share if they are not aggressive with this one.

they need to look good against the 1060 ti and 2060 in terms of price/$, the 2070 is a badly priced card.

 

[AtenRa]

Radeon 7 is a more complex card made to be sold as overpriced enterprise card first, a low volume product, I remember many people on this forum didn't even believe it would be sold as gaming card...

navi is a gaming GPU first using GDDR6 like the 1060 ti-2060-2070, if they are going to try and price match Nvidia while lacking RT and the brand recognition... they are not going to recover much market share if they are not aggressive with this one.

they need to look good against the 1060 ti and 2060 in terms of price/$, the 2070 is a badly priced card.

Again, RTX 2070 MSRP is $499

IF RX5700 comes close to RTX 2070 performance and power then a $399 MSRP is fine. The one you suggested at $299 is even lower than RTX 2060. There is no way AMD will release RX5700 with this performance at $299, its a business mistake.
I dont like it as consumer but from a business point of view the $399 price point makes them look good IF the performance and power is close or little better than RTX2070.

 

[Stuka87]

I agree that AMD will price the 5700 at $399 minimum. Which I am ok with. It undercuts nVidia, who's pricing has kind of gotten out of hand with the lack of competition in that segment.

 

[Glo.]

Indeed, you may be right. On the very recent Techspot revisit of Radeon VII vs. RTX 2080, the two cards are tied at 4k. Given that the Radeon VII came out 9% slower overall at 4k, Strange Brigade still favors AMD but not nearly as much as before Nvidia was able to bring significant performance uplifts. In this case, Navi might compete with RTX 2070 across the board, which would be great news. I won't hold my breath though.

Stop comparing Navi to previous GCN iterations. It is a cleen sheet design. There will be massive differences in how the GPU behaves. Making comparison to previous generations of AMD GPUs is completely pointless. Its like saying Bulldozer was performing in specific way, so it must mean Ryzen CPUs will also present the same behavior (#not).

 

[Glo.]

Speaking of pricing. If AMD will sell Radeon 5700 for 350$ it is a smack down offer, pre4tty much unbeatable, unless, Nvidia will release RTX 2070 Ti for the same price.

 

[JasonLD]

Stop comparing Navi to previous GCN iterations. It is a cleen sheet design. There will be massive differences in how the GPU behaves. Making comparison to previous generations of AMD GPUs is completely pointless. Its like saying Bulldozer was performing in specific way, so it must mean Ryzen CPUs will also present the same behavior (#not).

There is no indication that it is a clean sheet design. AMD might just wanted to walk away from GCN naming for its gaming GPUs since its reputation isn't so great in the first place.

 

[Headfoot]

Unless they're holding back something big, this is a colossal disappoint and a terrible release.

How could I possibly be excited about a gpu about as fast as the GTX 1080 from May 2016 (more than 3 years earlier than its launch date) for $100 less than a GTX 1080 was in May of 2016. If this is all they have to show, its a total failure.

64 CU - AGAIN. What is wrong with their design team??

 

[Mopetar]

I think anyone expecting AMD to come in cheap on prices is going to be disappointed. We know what they're selling the Ryzen 3000 CPUs for, and while you could argue that could be a result of supply constraints, it does tell us that if AMD has a competitive product, it will be priced that way.

 

[Thala]

Stop comparing Navi to previous GCN iterations. It is a cleen sheet design. There will be massive differences in how the GPU behaves. Making comparison to previous generations of AMD GPUs is completely pointless. Its like saying Bulldozer was performing in specific way, so it must mean Ryzen CPUs will also present the same behavior (#not).

Aside from the fact, that making implications for a new uarch are difficult indeed, we still can safely assume, that AMD have chosen a game, which performs way above average compared to the competition for marketing purpose. Since the demonstrated margin of 10% is not really large, it is at this point almost save to assume that RX5700 is slower than RTX2070 in average.
This comes on top of complete lack of raytracing acceleration - for all we know DXR is not supported - not even as SW/GPGPU driver.

 

[Saylick]

I agree that AMD will price the 5700 at $399 minimum. Which I am ok with. It undercuts nVidia, who's pricing has kind of gotten out of hand with the lack of competition in that segment.

Ryan estimates the die size at 275mm^2. From manufacturing perspective, this Navi die (assumed to be Navi 10) is larger than Polaris 10 (232mm^2) and it's on a more expensive manufacturing process with more expensive memory. I agree and think $400 is a fair price for the RX5700. If it's priced lower than that, I'd be surprised.

 

[Saylick]

@Saylick Assuming my fingers are the same size as the hand model, I got about 300mm2, very roughly speaking. Perhaps its actually smaller, but still quite a bit bigger than Polaris with 232mm2.



Yea, newer generations also focus on weaknesses of the previous generation too. That throws such arbitrary comparisons out the window.

At least AMD is claiming its 25% faster per clock across sets of games, not "IPC" as they claimed with Polaris, and then Vega which turned out to be barely faster than predecessors.

Just looking at my own hands, I too estimated something like 15mm x 20mm or roughly 300mm^2. Ryan Smith estimates the die to be 275mm^2 thereabouts so we're both not far off.

Either way, it's a more expensive die versus Polaris on a more expensive node with more expensive memory. I cannot fathom this Navi die being sold at Polaris prices unless it's a heavily cut-down SKU.