[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

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mattiasnyc

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Mar 30, 2017
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Too binary. Sales are just kinda low, historically speaking, with disappointing revenues. The 2070 is just to cover what few buyers can be convinced to fork over the cash. 1660Ti, 2080, and 2080Ti are NV's real money-makers in the consumer market. And maybe 1660 but that's questionable.



We ain't getting nowhere. I refuse to deal in hypotheticals that make it easier to defend a poor product price. Just watch how well it sells and then come back later and gloat if hundreds of thousands of units move at those MSPRs or higher. If not . . . weep for AMD.

Yeah, you still fail to comprehend what I'm saying.

Hint: It had nothing to do with defending a product's price, and it had nothing to do with the actual volume of future sales.

You just don't understand what I'm trying to say... after all these posts...
 
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fleshconsumed

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Feb 21, 2002
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In September we will have in sub 199$ price range the choice between small Navi GPU, or GTX 1660 Ti.
Given the $379 price for blower style 5700 I do not expect small NAVI to be in the sub $199 range and I'm not paying >$200 to get 10-20% improvement over RX480 three years later. If that is the case I'll be voting with my wallet and staying with RX480 until someone brings an actual value to the table or buying used/refurb from previous generation.
 

Glo.

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Apr 25, 2015
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Given the $379 price for blower style 5700 I do not expect small NAVI to be in the sub $199 range and I'm not paying >$200 to get 10-20% improvement over RX480 three years later. If that is the case I'll be voting with my wallet and staying with RX480 until someone brings an actual value to the table or buying used/refurb from previous generation.
Nvidia will lower prices, after Super models are released. GTX 1660 Ti and 1660 cannot cost more than RTX 2060, which should see a 100$ MSRP price drop to 249$. Current MSRP for GTX 1660 Ti is 279$.

AMD's GPU which will be slower(?) than GTX 1660 Ti cannot cost more than that GPU.
 

Auer

Junior Member
Nov 27, 2018
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Anyone that thinks GPU pricing will ever return to pre mining levels....no..not happening..
 

Karnak

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Jan 5, 2017
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Nvidia will lower prices, after Super models are released. GTX 1660 Ti and 1660 cannot cost more than RTX 2060, which should see a 100$ MSRP price drop to 249$. Current MSRP for GTX 1660 Ti is 279$.

AMD's GPU which will be slower(?) than GTX 1660 Ti cannot cost more than that GPU.
There's no reason for Nvidia to drop the 2060 to $249. The 2060 is based on TU106 which is a large 445mm² chip. That's not going to sale for $249 or even less anytime soon. Nvidia won't hurt their margins this much. That would be dumb in so many was.
 

Glo.

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Apr 25, 2015
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There's no reason for Nvidia to drop the 2060 to $249. The 2060 is based on TU106 which is a large 445mm² chip. That's not going to sale for $249 or even less anytime soon. Nvidia won't hurt their margins this much. That would be dumb in so many was.
Considering there will be RTX 2060 Super, they won't hurt their margins that much. TU106 that goes into RTX 2070, and RTX 2060 is essentially the same. They still be selling non-Super GPUs at standard MSRP prices.
 

Glo.

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https://gpureport.cz/info/Graphics_Architecture_06102019.pdf

Slide 28.

Comparing Vega 64 to Navi GPU: performance and efficiency. Navi has 14% better performance but 23% better efficiency.

In the endnotes AMD has said that Vega 64 GPU has had 40 CU units enabled.

56 CU Vega die has 230W power draw. Why would AMD lock Vega 64 to 40 CU units? All maths we know about previous generations of GCN is how they scale with core counts and clock speeds. 40 CU chip would draw around 175W. Why haven't AMD demoed Navi's power draw against Nvidia's RTX 2070 if it would be this good?

Its all smoke and mirrors.
 
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IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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56 CU Vega die has 230W power draw. Why would AMD lock Vega 64 to 40 CU units?

Maybe they wanted to show an architectural comparison. If the 40CUs for the Vega 64 isn't a typo, then their claims are looking like how they used 270X to claim Polaris had 2.5x the power efficiency.

But they are also claiming it beats RTX 2070. Perhaps in the Vega 64 comparison, Navi was underclocked to get max efficiency?

What's the point of Navi then? Use GDDR6 and a small die to increase margins?

We might be entering an era, where dGPUs are actually really doomed. It might be completely not good idea to design lots of different dies on smaller nodes, like Nvidia does, because the tradeoffs will be too big to.

Actually, Nvidia has a very good engineering team. They know what they are doing.

dGPUs are not doomed. If anything, slowdown in process will kill any hopes of iGPUs to replace dGPUs. Performance becomes increasingly dependent on power consumption and thermals and dGPUs have heaps of that.
 
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soresu

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Dec 19, 2014
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I will add one thing. GPUs have just 3-4 nodes left for them. That is the reality we face, guys.
For standard CMOS nodes sure, but emerging changes in persistent cache (SOT-MRAM replacing SRAM), spintronics and photonic interconnects can potentially offer significant increases in density - if for nothing else because they offer paths to less thermally constrained designs.

The change from SRAM to MRAM has the potential to drastically reduce the area impact of caches on chip, due to the fact that modern MRAM has a much higher density - given the same cache size, I'd say SOT-MRAM could take caches from 25+% of CPU die area to less than a tenth of that. There are also potential power benefits from persistence in MRAM based designs which ARM mentioned lately I think.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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For standard CMOS nodes sure, but emerging changes in persistent cache (SOT-MRAM replacing SRAM), spintronics and photonic interconnects can potentially offer significant increases in density - if for nothing else because they offer paths to less thermally constrained designs.

I feel they'll run into similar problems faced with EUV. It costs more, and its harder to do, and with less benefits.

The technologies you mentioned will bring revolutionary benefits in completely other ways. Just like the new category was Smartphones, not better desktop computers, those technologies will enable new class of computing.

For most people, computers have way passed the point of being good enough. People who need compute will use accelerators and special purpose equipment to get the speed they want.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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Maybe they wanted to show an architectural comparison. If the 40CUs for the Vega 64 isn't a typo, then their claims are looking like how they used 270X to claim Polaris had 2.5x the power efficiency.

But they are also claiming it beats RTX 2070. Perhaps in the Vega 64 comparison, Navi was underclocked to get max efficiency?

What's the point of Navi then? Use GDDR6 and a small die to increase margins?
It is possible. But As I have said, Navi 10 is faster than RTX 2070, so it is not pointless GPU.

Actually, Nvidia has a very good engineering team. They know what they are doing.

dGPUs are not doomed. If anything, slowdown in process will kill any hopes of iGPUs to replace dGPUs. Performance becomes increasingly dependent on power consumption and thermals and dGPUs have heaps of that.
Have you ever heard about heat density?

Navi has 10 bln transistors on 250 mm2 die. Think about what will happen on smaller nodes.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
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Have you ever heard about heat density?

You don't think high performance iGPUs will have heat density issues? What about 4GHz+ CPUs? Unless you are talking about <10W chips, they'll ALL have issues.

It's all the same. Actually large GPUs can potentially be better at it because they have greater surface area.
 

psyducktustin

Junior Member
May 22, 2019
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Im currently on a gtx770 and was watching navi. It's out of my desired pricing so what is the best choice for 1080p on a 200-300$ budget now? 1660 or 1660ti? rx 590?
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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You don't think high performance iGPUs will have heat density issues? What about 4GHz+ CPUs? Unless you are talking about <10W chips, they'll ALL have issues.

It's all the same. Actually large GPUs can potentially be better at it because they have greater surface area.
Im talking about dGPUs. We haven't seen yet any small GPU on 7 nm node, which actually might have better performance per watt ratio than Navi 10, because of the process properties.
 
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soresu

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The technologies you mentioned will bring revolutionary benefits in completely other ways. Just like the new category was Smartphones, not better desktop computers, those technologies will enable new class of computing.
As a means to an end, I see those advances as a possible path to truly silent and compact computing.

Obsoleting ODD's, and the rise of SSD's are already cutting the sound prdouced in cases, not to mention reducing volume and weight.

Once thermal issues are all but eliminated through spintronic logic and photonic data transfer, I believe we could finally see a sea change from the ancient ATX PC standards that have been the bedrock of PC design since the 90's.
At the very least, the loss of metal heatsinks and liquid cooling radiators will dramatically reduce weight and volume necessary for high end PC's.
 

soresu

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Dec 19, 2014
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I feel they'll run into similar problems faced with EUV. It costs more, and its harder to do, and with less benefits.
I think that of all the tech improvements I listed, photonics will be the most troublesome in that regard, owing to the differences in components vs spintronics and electronics.

The latter two fields are both based on electrons in different ways and can be shrunk down to as small as current CMOS node sizes - at least if the embedded MRAM nodes from some fabs are any indication.

Whereas the former field Photonics requires larger components at present, and I believe there is also so degree of latency in translating photonic inputs to electronic/spintronic - it remains to be seen if that latency would outweigh the thermal benefits of switching to photonic data. I would say the greatest benefit would be towards building a complete photonic interconnect framework to replace PCI-E from port to processor.
Another benefit of photonic data is multiple frequency transmission per waveguide/fiber - this could allow a much greater data bandwidth for a given number of connections/pins to a port or socket, which is fairly important as the pin count for CPU and memory has been slowly creeping upwards over the last 10-20 years.
 
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soresu

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Dec 19, 2014
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dGPUs are not doomed. If anything, slowdown in process will kill any hopes of iGPUs to replace dGPUs. Performance becomes increasingly dependent on power consumption and thermals and dGPUs have heaps of that.
Even on conventional CMOS processes there are ways to cool dies layered/stacked together if you want to stack logic and memory together for greater density vertically.

Check out DARPA's ICEcool project - they basically created a new thermal silicon via type for micro-fluidic cooling of a chip stack - basically pumping microscopic amounts of liquid directly through channels/vias in the silicon, making the heatplate cap more or less redundant.
 

maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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Im talking about dGPUs. We haven't seen yet any small GPU on 7 nm node, which actually might have better performance per watt ratio than Navi 10, because of the process properties.
Putting aside yield, why do you keep saying that TSMC 7nm node is bad for large die designs? Too much variation across the wafer leading to different parts of the die with too large a difference in electrical properties?
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Even on conventional CMOS processes there are ways to cool dies layered/stacked together if you want to stack logic and memory together for greater density vertically.

Check out DARPA's ICEcool project - they basically created a new thermal silicon via type for micro-fluidic cooling of a chip stack - basically pumping microscopic amounts of liquid directly through channels/vias in the silicon, making the heatplate cap more or less redundant.
Integrated cooling is probably the short term future. Stacking vertically is a lot more energy efficient than horizontal spacing for data movement. Everyone knew this but the thermals were and are the problem. The HBM design philosophy applied to GPUs. Wider, slower, much more power efficient. This, if perfected, gives as the equivalent of several nodes advancement.
 

DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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Interesting thing in that LLVM patch are new GFX 10 variants, GFX10.11 and GFX10.12

One of them has several dot instructions which are used for Tensor like operations, four bit operations and stuff

FeatureLDSBankCount32, FeatureDLInsts, FeatureDot1Insts, FeatureDot2Insts, FeatureDot5Insts, FeatureDot6Insts, FeatureNSAEncoding, FeatureWavefrontSize64, FeatureScalarStores, FeatureScalarAtomics, FeatureScalarFlatScratchInsts, FeatureLdsMisalignedBug, FeatureDoesNotSupportXNACK,

A whole lot more DL instructions than Vega.
Not sure if this is a compute oriented Navi, but from what roadmaps says Compute Markets will be taken over by a different part. So those low precision dot instructions means they could be used for something like rt.

The fact that only LLVM patches are coming out and not AMDGPU makes it more interesting.
 
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Glo.

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Apr 25, 2015
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Putting aside yield, why do you keep saying that TSMC 7nm node is bad for large die designs? Too much variation across the wafer leading to different parts of the die with too large a difference in electrical properties?
Electrical properties decrese proportionally with increase in die size, for some reason, that I do not know at this moment.

Zen Chiplets would not be as efficient, as easy to manufacture, and as easy to scale if they would be bigger. We would not see the same CPUs, from power point of view, if AMD would decide to manufacture monolithic dies on N7 process.
 
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Thala

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Nov 12, 2014
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For standard CMOS nodes sure, but emerging changes in persistent cache (SOT-MRAM replacing SRAM), spintronics and photonic interconnects can potentially offer significant increases in density - if for nothing else because they offer paths to less thermally constrained designs.

The change from SRAM to MRAM has the potential to drastically reduce the area impact of caches on chip, due to the fact that modern MRAM has a much higher density - given the same cache size, I'd say SOT-MRAM could take caches from 25+% of CPU die area to less than a tenth of that. There are also potential power benefits from persistence in MRAM based designs which ARM mentioned lately I think.

Last time i checked MRAMs have larger periphery (word line decoder, sense amplifiers, write circuit) such that area overhead for small slices is quite large. Chances are that if you use MRAM as L1$, area would even increase.
 

maddie

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Electrical properties decrese proportionally with increase in die size, for some reason, that I do not know at this moment.

Zen Chiplets would not be as efficient, as easy to manufacture, and as easy to scale if they would be bigger. We would not see the same CPUs, from power point of view, if AMD would decide to manufacture monolithic dies on N7 process.
I would think that if the Gaussian curve for basic electrical properties is wider for smaller nodes (makes sense from a quantum viewpoint as structures get smaller), the chance of slower sections holding back the whole increases.



Metaphorically speaking, a chain is only as strong as it's weakest link and as the chain gets longer, the chance of a weaker link increases, so long chains will be weaker than short ones, on average.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
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Electrical properties decrese proportionally with increase in die size, for some reason, that I do not know at this moment.

Zen Chiplets would not be as efficient, as easy to manufacture, and as easy to scale if they would be bigger. We would not see the same CPUs, from power point of view, if AMD would decide to manufacture monolithic dies on N7 process.

Thats absurd. There is nothing decreasing with die size except yield.

I would think that if the Gaussian curve for basic electrical properties is wider for smaller nodes (makes sense from a quantum viewpoint as structures get smaller), the chance of slower sections holding back the whole increases.

The process is characterized for best and worst corners. There is nothing particularly unsual for TSMC N7. Only if your plan is to heavily rely on binning your chances of getting an exceptional good die increases with smaller die sizes. But again this is applicable to any other process.
 
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