[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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Thats absurd. There is nothing decreasing with die size except yield.
Again: monolithic Zen 2 CPUs would not be as efficient as Chiplet based designs. They would not clock as high, or would consume more power.
 

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
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Im currently on a gtx770 and was watching navi. It's out of my desired pricing so what is the best choice for 1080p on a 200-300$ budget now? 1660 or 1660ti? rx 590?

Small Navi is coming later this summer, it covers that price range. If you need to buy now, then probably a 1660Ti. But the RX580 for 190 or so isn't a half bad deal either.
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
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Anyone that thinks GPU pricing will ever return to pre mining levels....no..not happening..

The GTX 1660 ti for this generation is completely unappreciated in the general landscape.

For the most part, it resembles premining prices. That is it present a 36% jump in performance vs the GTX 1060 for 30 more dollars or 12% more money which basically pays for the price of the memory. Far better than anything released today and in the near future for a new release card.

What makes it a good value even in today's market is that it competes with the Vega 56 at fire sale loss prices in price/performance and it moved the market forward and caused a cascade of price drops.

The reason it is unappreciated is because of a hype train that navi was going to come at $250 dollars with largely the performance stated which was unrealistic to begin with(7nm + Gddr6).

On top of this, there was a unrealistic attitude that the GTX 1660 ti should have been an gtx 2050 /1650. (140% faster) without a real change in node, to continue the hype train momentum.

Basically the market was led to believe a messiah was coming and the current products on the market were the devil including the well priced ones. Now that Navi is here and we have even less excuses for the price increase, AMD is somehow skirting the blame because of the poor excuse that AMD doesn't get more marketshare even when they have better value( Radeon 4870/5870 says hello). What I have said before and what youtubers are finally realizing after being made fools from AMD's so called leaks is AMD is after your money like every one else and they are trying to turn into the premium brand based on a mountain of hate. Some of it deserved but considering AMD's pricing as of late(not pricing related to firesale, but actual launch and official prices), they are not that much better when it comes to hurting consumers. They are slowly tricking people into buying more for less while getting people to wait months to more than a year for their product. While Nvidia is guilty of it, it is mostly the performance doing the talking(the GTX 1060 outperfomed the rx480 at launch) It's weird to see something like people selling their GTX 1080 ti's to get Vega 64's at 600 dollars. They are trying to turn into the premium brand when they are not.

People are trying to use the R and D excuse for AMD for the price increase(which applies much more to nvidia) but AMD is a very lean company when it comes to R and D because of their long product lifecycle and extensive use of engineers in China and India. That means they can afford to charge less because they amortize IP at a much lower rate because the R and D expense is lower and it's done over a much longer period of time due to rebrands. E.g 500 million over 3 years vs 2 billion over 18month-24 months. AMD does not need Nvidia like margins to be profitable because they are a lean company that can be profitable with lower margins. Nvidia spent 674 million on the last quarter on R and D while AMD spent 374 million which is mostly spent on CPU development. So AMD should be the value company when their expenses reflect this(outside of terrible decisions like HBM in gaming parts).

The reason why the optics are so different AMD guerilla marketing team is amazing. They have a strong presence with strategic leaks and also online posters. Do you notice posters disappearing with a strong AMD bias right after the true details of the card come out? I do and I suspect others if they inspected this thread, the radeon VII one or Vega one, would also see it too. Even the free marketers, do a good job of harassing youtubers if they say anything not so positive about AMD. Steve from techspot has mentioned it, Adoredtv talked about it, Not an apple Fan mentioned it too. Radeon Rebellion and the team red compaign are some of the best marketing I have seen because it has turned peoples logic backwards. E.g RX 590 with same die(refresh), same architecture, same memory is okay for 280 dollars, but a GTX 1660 ti, with a larger die, new architecture, new memory is not okay at 280 dollars. It boggles me.

People need to reward cards like the GTX 1660 ti, while punish card like the GTX 2080/2080 ti/2070/ 5700xt/5700/rx 590 that promote a price fixing environment. Card's that raise graphic card cost because they not only pass on the increase in cost due to BOM(GTX 1660 ti), but a little or lot extra because it is beneficial to both producers in increasing their marginthe list above).

Navi more than any card before it needs to fail at 450 to 390 pricing. When the value producers can get away with nearly doubling the cost of what used to be 240 dollars, it worsens or encourages higher pricing from the premium player. Expecting the premium dominant player to value price their products is unreasonable and bad for competition in long run because it bankrupts the competition (it pushes the competition to sell at a loss since they have to see for less than the dominant player) while the increase in volume does not offset the lower margin(they posses most of the marketshare so less room for improvement). I stress again, both companies on the products I listed above need to fail. Not just one. Navi succeeding at the prices above would only help Nvidia raise their own prices.

IF AMD wants to become the premium brand, they will have to do it with products that make the competition look bad like with their CPU's(potentially with ryzen 2). Navi made RTX 2070/2060 look better by comfirming what Nvidia said(Nvidia's 12nm products compete very well with AMD's 7nm products).

Navi coming in at 350, 279 would have absorbed a tonne of good will and marketshare for AMD like the 4870/ 5870(40-48% marketshare) opposed to the 18-20% marketshare.
 
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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The GTX 1660 ti for this generation is completely unappreciated in the general landscape.

For the most part, it resembles premining prices. That is it present a 36% jump in performance vs the GTX 1060 for 30 more dollars or 12% more money which basically pays for the price of the memory. Far better than anything released today and in the near future for a new release card.

Navi coming in at 350, 279 would have absorbed a tonne of good will and marketshare for AMD like the 4870/ 5870(40-48% marketshare) opposed to the 18-20% marketshare.
Mostly I agree, apart from one thing. There will be better options, especially, when Nvidia will lower MSRPs of RTX GPUs and this, GTX 1660 Ti, will also be hit with lower MSRP(potentially...).

About marketshare. AMD appears to be not caring about marketshare, but caring about margins.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
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Thats absurd. There is nothing decreasing with die size except yield.

The process is characterized for best and worst corners. There is nothing particularly unsual for TSMC N7. Only if your plan is to heavily rely on binning your chances of getting an exceptional good die increases with smaller die sizes. But again this is applicable to any other process.
Yes this always existed, but as the structure sizes get smaller, more quantum effects dominate and the variation balloons. We might be at the point where it's almost certain we'll get slower sections on a larger die.

I can speculate on a plausible (to me) reason as to how this might be.
 
Reactions: Glo.

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
304
320
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More about preserving margins because of the crazy high 7 nm wafer costs.

This is beyond preserving margins. Aside from the memory which is a 30 dollar increase or so, the rest of the board components are very similar to an RX 590 which can sell for 220 dollars and could probably sell for $190 at this point and still make a profit(similar TBP means similar power circuitry + cooler). You have 230 to 270 dollars to pay any additional cost for the chip(on top of the base Polaris GPU cost). This is beyond simply maintaining margins. Look at Vega and you will see similar confirmation.

Vega 56/64 breaks even at the very least at 300/350(loss potentially below this) which is nearly double the die size and has 12.5 billion transistors vs the 10.3 billion of navi, there is a strong chance Vega GPU costs more to product than Navi GPU because of the yields on a larger die. Subtract the cost of HBM2 + interposter $160 dollars vs $80, so 80 dollars, and you have a product that is somewhere around $270 dollar to produce at the high end but probably more around $230-250, there is certainly a fat fat margin for navi at $450/390.

Lets break down the cost of the RX 590. If Polaris (rx590) margin was 43% at 220. We are looking at a the chip costing 40 dollars, AMD making 30 dollars by charging 70. The board partners margins are around 15% so $50 for memory, $30 dollars for cooler, 15$ for power power circuitry, $10 dollars for PCB, so 95 for cost for board partners.So $95+ $70 = $165 X 1.15 = 190. 20 dollars profit for retailer + 10 dollars to pay for shipping and logistic to fill out the rest of that 220. Lets double the cost of production of a Navi chip vs Polaris 30. So a $80 dollar cost. Using the same costs, + more $30 for memory, 15% board partner margin, we see AMD is charging around 210 dollars off with an $80 cost of production which is a 62% margin(130/210). AMD is making bank on these.
 
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linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,334
857
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The GTX 1660 ti for this generation is completely unappreciated in the general landscape.

For the most part, it resembles premining prices. That is it present a 36% jump in performance vs the GTX 1060 for 30 more dollars or 12% more money which basically pays for the price of the memory. Far better than anything released today and in the near future for a new release card.

What makes it a good value even in today's market is that it competes with the Vega 56 at fire sale loss prices in price/performance and it moved the market forward and caused a cascade of price drops.

The reason it is unappreciated is because of a hype train that navi was going to come at $250 dollars with largely the performance stated which was unrealistic to begin with(7nm + Gddr6).

On top of this, there was a unrealistic attitude that the GTX 1660 ti should have been an gtx 2050 /1650. (140% faster) without a real change in node, to continue the hype train momentum.

Basically the market was led to believe a messiah was coming and the current products on the market were the devil including the well priced ones. Now that Navi is here and we have even less excuses for the price increase, AMD is somehow skirting the blame because of the poor excuse that AMD doesn't get more marketshare even when they have better value( Radeon 4870/5870 says hello). What I have said before and what youtubers are finally realizing after being made fools from AMD's so called leaks is AMD is after your money like every one else and they are trying to turn into the premium brand based on a mountain of hate. Some of it deserved but considering AMD's pricing as of late(not pricing related to firesale, but actual launch and official prices), they are not that much better when it comes to hurting consumers. They are slowly tricking people into buying more for less while getting people to wait months to more than a year for their product. While Nvidia is guilty of it, it is mostly the performance doing the talking(the GTX 1060 outperfomed the rx480 at launch) It's weird to see something like people selling their GTX 1080 ti's to get Vega 64's at 600 dollars. They are trying to turn into the premium brand when they are not.

People are trying to use the R and D excuse for AMD for the price increase(which applies much more to nvidia) but AMD is a very lean company when it comes to R and D because of their long product lifecycle and extensive use of engineers in China and India. That means they can afford to charge less because they amortize IP at a much lower rate because the R and D expense is lower and it's done over a much longer period of time due to rebrands. E.g 500 million over 3 years vs 2 billion over 18month-24 months. AMD does not need Nvidia like margins to be profitable because they are a lean company that can be profitable with lower margins. Nvidia spent 674 million on the last quarter on R and D while AMD spent 374 million which is mostly spent on CPU development. So AMD should be the value company when their expenses reflect this(outside of terrible decisions like HBM in gaming parts).

The reason why the optics are so different AMD guerilla marketing team is amazing. They have a strong presence with strategic leaks and also online posters. Do you notice posters disappearing with a strong AMD bias right after the true details of the card come out? I do and I suspect others if they inspected this thread, the radeon VII one or Vega one, would also see it too. Even the free marketers, do a good job of harassing youtubers if they say anything not so positive about AMD. Steve from techspot has mentioned it, Adoredtv talked about it, Not an apple Fan mentioned it too. Radeon Rebellion and the team red compaign are some of the best marketing I have seen because it has turned peoples logic backwards. E.g RX 590 with same die(refresh), same architecture, same memory is okay for 280 dollars, but a GTX 1660 ti, with a larger die, new architecture, new memory is not okay at 280 dollars. It boggles me.

People need to reward cards like the GTX 1660 ti, while punish card like the GTX 2080/2080 ti/2070/ 5700xt/5700/rx 590 that promote a price fixing environment. Card's that raise graphic card cost because they not only pass on the increase in cost due to BOM(GTX 1660 ti), but a little or lot extra because it is beneficial to both producers in increasing their marginthe list above).

Navi more than any card before it needs to fail at 450 to 390 pricing. When the value producers can get away with nearly doubling the cost of what used to be 240 dollars, it worsens or encourages higher pricing from the premium player. Expecting the premium dominant player to value price their products is unreasonable and bad for competition in long run because it bankrupts the competition (it pushes the competition to sell at a loss since they have to see for less than the dominant player) while the increase in volume does not offset the lower margin(they posses most of the marketshare so less room for improvement). I stress again, both companies on the products I listed above need to fail. Not just one. Navi succeeding at the prices above would only help Nvidia raise their own prices.

IF AMD wants to become the premium brand, they will have to do it with products that make the competition look bad like with their CPU's(potentially with ryzen 2). Navi made RTX 2070/2060 look better by comfirming what Nvidia said(Nvidia's 12nm products compete very well with AMD's 7nm products).

Navi coming in at 350, 279 would have absorbed a tonne of good will and marketshare for AMD like the 4870/ 5870(40-48% marketshare) opposed to the 18-20% marketshare.

The 1660ti is not a good value card. If it has a good value, then so does the 2060. They've got the same price/performance, however the 2060 also has RTX (if that's worth anything to you), so I'd argue that the 2060 is the card with the better value.

Using European prices, computerbase.de says that the 2060 has marginally better perf/€, both in 1080p and 1440p. According to TPU, the 1660ti has marginally better perf/$, 2-3% depending on resolution. TPU actually puts the 1060 at 4-7% better perf/$ than the 1660ti (using 1660ti launch day prices)!
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
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So why release that much larger, earlier process, 16 GB HBM2 card for $700?
That GPU has good enough margins in HPC and server space .

Also. Some GPu had to got those Apple Shekels from Mac Pro .
 

soresu

Platinum Member
Dec 19, 2014
2,955
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Last time i checked MRAMs have larger periphery (word line decoder, sense amplifiers, write circuit) such that area overhead for small slices is quite large. Chances are that if you use MRAM as L1$, area would even increase.
Interesting, I must have been reading about another MRAM type when I picked up the thing about its cell size, even the more recent SOT-MRAM (160 F2) is close to SRAM (160-200 F2) in that regard.
There is however another MRAM type called VC-MRAM which is much smaller (50-60 F2), albeit with a higher voltage requirement (2.2V to SRAM's 0.6-1.2V).
A recent advance made in MRAM called 'field free' may mitigate that voltagfe requirement though.

Relatively speaking, none of the current MRAM variants have had even a small fraction of the research investment invested in SRAM, and I would expect many improvements to the field as they seek to end the scaling problems that SRAM brings with it - especially in the area of mobile which can benefit most from persistent memory techniques.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
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653
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Yes this always existed, but as the structure sizes get smaller, more quantum effects dominate and the variation balloons. We might be at the point where it's almost certain we'll get slower sections on a larger die.

I can speculate on a plausible (to me) reason as to how this might be.

It might be that the variance is slightly higher but just looking at the cell library and process characterization there is nothing un-usual i am aware of.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
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It might be that the variance is slightly higher but just looking at the cell library and process characterization there is nothing un-usual i am aware of.
Lets put it to rest for now, and wait for navi 14 to be released. We should get back to this discussion, then.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
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I have to say guys, from architectural point of view, RDNA is the first time in few years That I actually like AMD's effort. I like it even more than Turing.

P.S. Does anyone of you know wheter Navi has 4 Prim Shaders Out/8 In, per Shader Engine, or Total?
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
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Interesting, I must have been reading about another MRAM type when I picked up the thing about its cell size, even the more recent SOT-MRAM (160 F2) is close to SRAM (160-200 F2) in that regard.
There is however another MRAM type called VC-MRAM which is much smaller (50-60 F2), albeit with a higher voltage requirement (2.2V to SRAM's 0.6-1.2V).
A recent advance made in MRAM called 'field free' may mitigate that voltagfe requirement though.

Relatively speaking, none of the current MRAM variants have had even a small fraction of the research investment invested in SRAM, and I would expect many improvements to the field as they seek to end the scaling problems that SRAM brings with it - especially in the area of mobile which can benefit most from persistent memory techniques.

I was just commenting on the size of SOT-MRAMS. The memory cells themself are tiny, so there is a break-even point (in terms of capacity) at which a SOT-MRAM is smaller than contemporary SRAM - as far as i remember it was larger than 128kByte or so.
In any case, (from my point of view) the single biggest issue of SRAM for mobile is leakage - as it is increasing with each smaller process node. Here MRAM showing factor 4 and more lower leakage!
But yes, MRAMS are a very interesting development.
 

soresu

Platinum Member
Dec 19, 2014
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In any case, (from my point of view) the single biggest issue of SRAM for mobile is leakage - as it is increasing with each smaller process node. Here MRAM showing factor 4 and more lower leakage!
Yes, the most significant benefit of more recent memory types/concepts over SRAM, DRAM and Flash seems to be scaling down beyond 10nm.
 

soresu

Platinum Member
Dec 19, 2014
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P.S. Does anyone of you know wheter Navi has 4 Prim Shaders Out/8 In, per Shader Engine, or Total?
This makes me wonder what their tessellation performance is like now that they finally have it enabled, its typically been worse than nVidia's in heavy loads I think?
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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This makes me wonder what their tessellation performance is like now that they finally have it enabled, its typically been worse than nVidia's in heavy loads I think?
Pretty much it has been worse in anything geometry related, vs Nvidia.

Also, it is 4 Shader Prims Out/8 Shader Prims in. So it appears it is 2 Primitives per shader Engine.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,797
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I can easily see Intel pulling miracle and making GTX 1660 Ti performance class GPU that fits in 75-90W power draw scenario. What I cannot see is Intel pricing it below 200$ mark, if everybody else has similarly performing GPUs, at the same price, but consuming more power.

Intel is going to chase margins like everyone else.

Yeah, you still fail to comprehend what I'm saying.

Hint: It had nothing to do with defending a product's price, and it had nothing to do with the actual volume of future sales.

You just don't understand what I'm trying to say... after all these posts...

A pity. Too many hypotheticals and ifs. Meanwhile . . .

Im currently on a gtx770 and was watching navi. It's out of my desired pricing so what is the best choice for 1080p on a 200-300$ budget now? 1660 or 1660ti? rx 590?

You aren't alone. Most people are going to say: 1660Ti. I have to agree with them. Sadly, I do not think prices on that card will go down much soon since AMD has done so little to drive pressure downward. Prices might go down thanks to NV, though. You should also look at the used market to see if you can pick off a 1080 cheap. I think I saw a few in the $330 range on eBay the other day. If they go lower than that, it might be time to think about one of those. There's also a $310 EVGA RTX 2060 right now thanks to a $30-off promo and a $20 MIR. Those prices might sink again soon if/when NV launches the "Supers".

Anyone that thinks GPU pricing will ever return to pre mining levels....no..not happening..

It should have, though. There's no way the market can bear such high ASPs.

Considering there will be RTX 2060 Super, they won't hurt their margins that much. TU106 that goes into RTX 2070, and RTX 2060 is essentially the same. They still be selling non-Super GPUs at standard MSRP prices.

The only way it works is if NV is dumping stock. Cut off supplies of the 2060 and sell at prices below MSRP but above liquidation/disposal.

The fact that only LLVM patches are coming out and not AMDGPU makes it more interesting.

Does that hint at bifurcation of the open-source AMDGPU driver?

The GTX 1660 ti for this generation is completely unappreciated in the general landscape.

Now that the 2060 is (essentially) going on fire sale while the 1660Ti is holding its price, the value proposition isn't as good as when it launched, but it's still a stand-out. Demand is keeping prices on the 1660Ti high. Meanwhile, the 2060 is doing this:

https://pcpartpicker.com/products/video-card/#c=436&sort=price&page=1

$310 for an EVGA card? In contrast, the cheapest 1660Ti I can find right now is $260 (after rebates/MIR).

Navi coming in at 350, 279 would have absorbed a tonne of good will and marketshare for AMD like the 4870/ 5870(40-48% marketshare) opposed to the 18-20% marketshare.

Agreed. Eventually NV and AMD are going to have to deal with the inevitable drop from mining-level street prices.
 

Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
3,873
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They shifted whole stack up one tier and doubled prices.
So rx480/470 replacement cost as vega and selling as high-end but we see only 10-15% performance uplift vs vega.
rx460/560 replacement will cost about same as 570/580 with again only small performance gain vs them.

I suspect you are right, less say HD5600 with RX580 perf at $150 and HD5600XT with GTX1660 perf at $200, but even doing something as crappy as that, they will still leave A HUGE price gap to the smaller Navi 10.
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
304
320
136
The 1660ti is not a good value card. If it has a good value, then so does the 2060. They've got the same price/performance, however the 2060 also has RTX (if that's worth anything to you), so I'd argue that the 2060 is the card with the better value.

Using European prices, computerbase.de says that the 2060 has marginally better perf/€, both in 1080p and 1440p. According to TPU, the 1660ti has marginally better perf/$, 2-3% depending on resolution. TPU actually puts the 1060 at 4-7% better perf/$ than the 1660ti (using 1660ti launch day prices)!

In that chart the gtx 1660 ti is 299.99. I was comparing the Gtx 1660 ti at 279.99 and the RTX 2060 at 349.99 which was the starting MSRP of both these cards in north America. According to that chart, the rtx 2060 is 16% faster and given the 40 dollar price difference for that chart, it makes sense that the price to performance is very similar.

However with a 70 dollar difference in price, the value falls back to the gtx 1660 ti.

Furthermore, the RTX 2060 does not belong in the same breath as the RTX 2070, 2080, 2080 ti and Navi. for poor value cards The RTX 2060 was a reasonable value at the time because it was faster than a Vega 56 which was a good value at the time around 370(none reference with a bad cooler and 1 year warranty) and competed reasonably with older cards with post mining prices. It also cause price drops to happen on cards with decent value already.

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/NVIDIA/GeForce_RTX_2060_Founders_Edition/35.html



Compare this to where the rest of the RTX lineup is, and the RTX 2060 value compared to older cards which had price drops already post mining and it was a pretty decent card. It's why reviewers were generally positive about it compared to the rest of the rtx launch.

The GTX 1660 ti continued with this and launched with reasonable prices in the crowded under 300 market and again it competed well.





And the market for older products had deteriorated even further with even better pricing and it still compete pretty well.

Navi on the other hand is badly priced against current generation card like the RTX 2060 and GTX 1660 ti, even if we use AMD likely inflated performance figures. With the GTX 1660 pricing at 260 dollars and RTX 2060 at 325 dollars, we seeing AMD deciding to price their cards high even when competition is right here and now.

RTX 2080, 2080 ti and 2070 pricing was high but they knew the state and appearance of competition was months and months away. It was a calculated greedy business move but understandable. Plus they had crazy amounts of pascal inventory and didn't want to do a 300 million dollar write off.

With Navi, there is almost no excuse for the pricing. At this point, most Vega and RX has been cleared out. More importantly, competition is already here and they are the brand with the better name. As a result it is not only a greedy move, it is a stupid one unless Nvidia raises their prices so Navi looks attractive. The potential for Navi's pricing to blow up in their face is tremendous much like the 7970 and 7870 prices and launch. Nvidia looked like heroes with the elevated pricing of the GTX 680 and 670 and stole alot of good will from AMD.

A key part of marketing is getting good reviews and AMD literally stacked the odds against themselves. When the RTX 2080 launched, it was the opposite, while Nvidia priced their products bad, the competition had no chance to one up them because of the timing of competition from AMD, hence why it was a calculated greedy move. Here AMD is pricing themselves to be mediocre(without the inventory build up excuse to boot) with products in the same generation and are opening the door for Nvidia to look like the heroes if super pricing is 100 dollars less than existing pricing which will be further magnified by the Nvidia brand.
 
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DrMrLordX

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Apr 27, 2000
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@tajoh111

Just keep in mind that street prices for the 2060 are falling faster than the 1660Ti. Navi has to compete with that too. Well, the baseline 5700 does anyway. 2070 prices are sticking to around $460-$480 . . . for now. The 2070 keeps looking worse and worse.
 
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