[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

Page 68 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Status
Not open for further replies.

piesquared

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2006
1,651
473
136
AMD has CPU division which will enjoy hefty price margin, and volume. AMD has Semi-Custom business, that gives them money. AMD is everywhere: cloud, servers, gaming, consoles, mobile(with Samsung's License). Nvidia doesn't have any other source of money, than just GPUs.

Who do you think is better positioned to survive price war?

AMD is not forced to lower prices. They are not cheap option anymore. They have competitive product, they price it accordingly to enjoy good enough margins.

True. And nvidia is a much weaker competitor than intel is. The GPU market is also less predictable and more volatile than the CPU market, partly because nvidia doesn't have any of the clout or government backing than intel does to force OEM's to obey their demands. The closest they have is backing from goldman sucks, which incidentaly the finance sector is quite likely where most of their astroturfers and viral marketers come from.

As the Lions share of GPU sales is dominated by gamers, one architecture can result in a serious revenue decline for nvidia. Navi looks like a good architecture from AMD for this generation and to build on for the following ones. At the same time nvidia seems to have fumbled with their DXR implementation and overestimated consumers desire for raytracing at any cost. Who knows how or why they predicted that consumers would pay for something that effectively doesn't work, maybe it's hubris. Vega has been slowly but steadily taking market share in most sectors, I see no reason why Navi won't continue that trend and even accelerate it.
 
Reactions: prtskg

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
True. And nvidia is a much weaker competitor than intel is. The GPU market is also less predictable and more volatile than the CPU market, partly because nvidia doesn't have any of the clout or government backing than intel does to force OEM's to obey their demands. The closest they have is backing from goldman sucks, which incidentaly the finance sector is quite likely where most of their astroturfers and viral marketers come from.

As the Lions share of GPU sales is dominated by gamers, one architecture can result in a serious revenue decline for nvidia. Navi looks like a good architecture from AMD for this generation and to build on for the following ones. At the same time nvidia seems to have fumbled with their DXR implementation and overestimated consumers desire for raytracing at any cost. Who knows how or why they predicted that consumers would pay for something that effectively doesn't work, maybe it's hubris. Vega has been slowly but steadily taking market share in most sectors, I see no reason why Navi won't continue that trend and even accelerate it.
Jenhsen is already pissed by what Vega is doing in cloud and server space to their sales .

Not to mention HPC wins will be completely dominated by AMD in upcoming future.

Everybody here is looking at Nvidia's revenue from past years. But forget that it does not matter, when it goes for future. Nvidia does not have CPUs to pair their GPUs with. Intel and AMD both have them. And they both will kick Nvidia out of OEM space. Nvidia will get very little share here, because they will have to compete with Both Intel and AMD on the pricing.

Latest CUDA on ARM announcement should tell you guys who is the most desperate to survive.

Do not get me wrong. Nvidia will be here for the time being. But they are on a serious disadvantage from business point of view. Because they have no CPUs to pair with their GPUs, apart from ARM. And they cannot offer good discounts on CPU+GPU combos for the OEMs.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
Well, nVidia does also sell SoC's, although I think the only big contract they have there is with Nintendo for the Switch.
With their pricing policy? Im not surprised that only Nintendo bought their products.

Actually, I am surprised that they have bought it.
 

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
304
320
136
You say that with straight face. Knowing that AMD was able to develop Zen2 on 7 nm process node?

The power targets were lower and clock targets were higher than when they came out of bakery. AMD had a choice. Either they clock them to death, or they are not faster than RTX 2070. Power targets were not met. Clock targets were. And this is solely because of the process, because it is better than people expected it to be, on clocks front, and worse than people expected it be, on power front.

A correction would be Nvidia has better Engineers in their GPU division than AMD does in their GPU division. Particularly their process and error correction engineers which relates to your second post. The history of GPU's since the Shanghai team has taken over has been lackluster compared to the Markham team, everyone can agree on that. The process and error correction team has allowed Nvidia to mostly set their volts rather optimum compared to AMD(much smaller of an overvolt). This is because there variance in samples quality is much smaller. The difference in sample quality is + or - 5% vs + or - 10+% for AMD. This causes AMD to push more volts to maximize yields and stability at a particular clock.

Your second post is a complete red herring that does not address the rebuttle to your original post. It is ridiculous to suggest that a move to a smaller node won't bring efficiency/performance gains. That's literally the trend of pretty much every nodal shift. Your largely unrelated post about AMD hitting clock goals and not hitting power goals is not only unproven it doesn't related to your original post(hence a red herring).

Also who said it was better from a clocks point? 1755mhz as the real world clocking speed(assuming AMD is being truthful here) is not that far above the 1730mhz average clocks the Radeon VII hits. If AMD designs is more similar to pascals/maxwells we should be seeing higher clocks than this. Nvidia was able to improve their clock speed during the maxwell generation nearly 20% from the architectural shift(without a power hit) and without a new node. The rx 590s were already hitting 1560 as their gaming clock, so a modest 12.5% improvement over this is not that impressive when you combine new architecture + new node. New node + Maxwell = Pascal which yielded some 60-70% increase in frequency vs kepler.

If you don't think turing is going to clock badly on 7nm, you have another thing coming because Turing has a tonne of clocks left in the tanks. How do we know this? Look at the LN2 speeds of the card.
https://wccftech.com/nvidia-geforce-rtx-2080-ti-galax-hof-oc-2-9-ghz-3dmark-world-records/

Nvidia is able to reach 2.9ghz on ln2. You might question how they are related but what I have noticed which has allowed me to make accurate clock predictions is LN2 rates give a preview of what a card to can overclock to on a new node.

What does a GTX 980 ti clock too on ln2, 2.1 ghz.

https://www.kitguru.net/components/...-hits-2-1ghz8-4ghz-with-ln2-sets-new-records/

What does a GTX 1080 ti clock to on air? 2-2.1ghz.

The same was true of Fury X vs Polaris. Fury X under ln2 could reach between 1400-1500mhz. A very good rx480 could overclock to that speed.

Now lets look at Vega, what does Vega do under ln2 atleast 2ghz and probably a bit further according to buildzoid(no one did serious testing under ln2 since no world records were achievable with the card).

What does Radeon VII overclock to? Again 2.1 ghz.

People were shocked at high pascal clocked and expected the same from GCN on the move to 14/16nm. People saw 1750mhz and 2.1ghz overclocks and expect the RX 480 to hit, 1.6 stock and nearly 2 ghz overclocks. But all we got was 1.28 ghz stock and 1.450ghz overclocks. Most were surprised by this, but if you were paying attention to the ln2 overclocks, you would not have been disappointed and actually expected this.

I don't expect turing to have stock clocks of 2.9 ghz or overclock this high under air, but I could easily seeing stock clocks of 2.3-2.4 ghz and overclocks in the 2.7ghz range(which is a common overclock of ln2).

So what does this mean? If Nvidia kept clocks at current clocks which is around the 1750 to 1800mhz range, they could likely half their power consumption(something AMD also claims with Radeon VII) because this would be 30% below their achievable 2.3ghz-2.4ghz standard clock.

This is consistent with TSMC specification of 50% power reduction at the same performance or 30% higher clocks at the same power.

So what does this mean? We are not going to see a regression in performance per watt that you weirdly want? It is pretty much impossible.
 
Reactions: pepone1234

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
Your second post is a complete red herring that does address to the rebuttle to your original post. It is ridiculous to suggest that a move to a smaller node won't bring efficiency/performance gains. That's literally the trend of pretty much every nodal shift. Your largely unrelated post about AMD hitting clock goals and not hitting power goals is not only unproven it doesn't related to your original post(hence a red herring).
Why does everybody read something that I have not written here?

Yes, it will bring power efficiency.

But for those expecting that suddenly 250 mm2, 2560 CUDA core, GTX 1660 Ti replacement on 7nm, clocked at 1.9 GHz will use less than 150W should stop dreaming. It won't happen.

On 7 nm SS EUV? Maybe.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,797
11,144
136
AMD has CPU division which will enjoy hefty price margin, and volume. AMD has Semi-Custom business, that gives them money. AMD is everywhere: cloud, servers, gaming, consoles, mobile(with Samsung's License). Nvidia doesn't have any other source of money, than just GPUs.

Who do you think is better positioned to survive price war?

AMD, overall. Which is why I'm surprised they don't want to start one in the consumer dGPU segment. Maybe they're afraid of knocking off NV for some reason?

AMD is not forced to lower prices. They are not cheap option anymore. They have competitive product, they price it accordingly to enjoy good enough margins.

No, but the fact is that they can. Let's face it, AMD has been sufficiently successful with Vega10/20 in the datacenter market that it can carry their consumer dGPU business if need be. AMD wouldn't exactly be losing their shirts if they sold 5700XT for less than $449, for example. They are making a choice not to be aggressive on pricing in the consumer market. I didn't really want to bring that up, but since others are mentioning it . . . it's true, AMD is eating into NV's datacenter dGPU business, and they are reaping the rewards.

Navi does not need to be priced for high margins.

Well, nVidia does also sell SoC's, although I think the only big contract they have there is with Nintendo for the Switch.

They have some automotive contracts. Though I think they lost one recently. Those are potentially big.

With their pricing policy? Im not surprised that only Nintendo bought their products.

Actually, I am surprised that they have bought it.

Nintendo bought an older SoC (TX1) instead of NV's latest (TX2) at the time they designed Switch. Typical Nintendo.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
AMD, overall. Which is why I'm surprised they don't want to start one in the consumer dGPU segment. Maybe they're afraid of knocking off NV for some reason?
It would make sense to disrupt this space if there would be any growth in this market, or if AMD would want to survive, and every source of revenue matters. But right now, what they want is margins. Revenue they will get with completely diversified streams in different markets. Mainly in the CPU one.
 

ubern00b

Member
Jun 11, 2019
171
75
61
AMD (GPU's) has a lot of fingers in a lot of pies atm, they are still (I'm assuming) producing chips for PS4 and Xbone, they are preparing to start (if not already started) production for next gen PS and XB, they have also just signed a new partnership with Samsung to provide them with GPU IP for their mobile chips division, they are supplying the new high end Apple Pro desktops as well as having a good presence in the HPC/datacentre while still managing to churn out new consumer GPU's for the PC market, it's a pretty nice position to be in IMO

Also forgot the dept of energy contract that was recently announced which is worh $600m+ iirc?
 
Last edited:
Reactions: Glo.

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
AMD (GPU's) has a lot of fingers in a lot of pies atm, they are still (I'm assuming) producing chips for PS4 and Xbone, they are preparing to start (if not already started) production for next gen PS and XB, they have also just signed a new partnership with Samsung to provide them with GPU IP for their mobile chips division, they are supplying the new high end Apple Pro desktops as well as having a good presence in the HPC/datacentre while still managing to churn out new consumer GPU's for the PC market, it's a pretty nice position to be in IMO

They also provide the GPU power for stadia.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
AMD (GPU's) has a lot of fingers in a lot of pies atm, they are still (I'm assuming) producing chips for PS4 and Xbone, they are preparing to start (if not already started) production for next gen PS and XB, they have also just signed a new partnership with Samsung to provide them with GPU IP for their mobile chips division, they are supplying the new high end Apple Pro desktops as well as having a good presence in the HPC/datacentre while still managing to churn out new consumer GPU's for the PC market, it's a pretty nice position to be in IMO
In the grand scheme of things, its Nvidia who is in trouble, not AMD. Considering that ML goes more and more into Open Source space, that HPC wants to go Open Source, instead of CUDA, they do not have CPUs to bundle their products with, like AMD did with Exascale computers, like Intel will do in OEM space when they will release their own GPUs, they are in big trouble. Gaming may be the biggest saving grace for Nvidia, but it may not.

We're getting slightly off topic here...
 
Reactions: ubern00b

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
This is consistent with TSMC specification of 50% power reduction at the same performance or 30% higher clocks at the same power.
So what does this mean? We are not going to see a regression in performance per watt that you weirdly want? It is pretty much impossible.

That sounds about right.
We are getting about 35-40% power reduction at iso frequency in conjunction with a voltage reduction from 800mV down to 750mV at TSMC 7nm - this is compared to TSMC 10nm.
The corollary for Turing would mean that they going to achieve 2GHz@900-950mV at TSMC 7nm with similar power reduction.
 

JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
136
In the grand scheme of things, its Nvidia who is in trouble, not AMD. Considering that ML goes more and more into Open Source space, that HPC wants to go Open Source, instead of CUDA, they do not have CPUs to bundle their products with, like AMD did with Exascale computers, like Intel will do in OEM space when they will release their own GPUs, they are in big trouble. Gaming may be the biggest saving grace for Nvidia, but it may not.

We're getting slightly off topic here...

Nvidia's purchase of Mellanox and CUDA on Arm could mean they might come out with their own ARM based server CPU in not-so-distant future. They actually have a potential to become a bigger player than merely being GPU supplier on HPC field.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
Nvidia's purchase of Mellanox and CUDA on Arm could mean they might come out with their own ARM based server CPU in not-so-distant future. They actually have a potential to become a bigger player than merely being GPU supplier on HPC field.
And I wish this will happen. But at the same time, it will render them completely unimportant in anything serious.

Unless suddenly, miracolously ARM will become like 4 times faster on ISA level to get to x86 parity...

I do like the idea of Nvidia using CUDA+ARM in anything ML/AI related. Small/powerful AI/ML supercomputers? I like this idea, a lot.
 
Last edited:

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
Unless suddenly, miracolously ARM will become like 4 times faster on ISA level to get to x86 parity...

You have not been following up on ARM achitectures lately, have you? Cortex A76 is architecturally (IPC) between Zen+ and Skylake and Cortex A77 is about 20% fast in integer and 25% faster in floating point compared to Cortex A76 - you do the math.
You must be a decade behind if you think they are factor 4 slower
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,761
4,666
136
You have not been following up on ARM achitectures lately, have you? Cortex A76 is architecturally (IPC) between Zen+ and Skylake and Cortex A77 is about 20% fast in integer and 25% faster in floating point compared to Cortex A76 - you do the math.
You must be a decade behind if you think they are factor 4 slower
On Instructions that are 4 times smaller, than x86 .

The only CPU that has comparable real world performance to x86, in ARM's world is Apple's AX chip.
 

Thala

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2014
1,355
653
136
On Instructions that are 4 times smaller, than x86 .

The only CPU that has comparable real world performance to x86, in ARM's world is Apple's AX chip.

Dont spill nonsense! A12 is far ahead. Cortex A76 is about equal to the latest x64 cores - give or take - mind you? And thats of course at iso clock frequency.
 
Reactions: swilli89

ubern00b

Member
Jun 11, 2019
171
75
61
When ARM can release an 8/16/32 core chip (real 8 core, not 4 fast and 4 slow clores) at 5ghz that can compete with an x86 chip at the same clock speed and core count in everyday scenarios then.... and only then it might start to challenge x86 though in reality ARM cores are small and very low clocked and to acheive that kind of parity, the advantage of power consumption on ARM vs x86 goes out of the window which just happens to be it's main USP vs x86, sure you could probably create an 8 core ARM chip that runs at 5GHZ with the same IPC as x86, but then you're TDP and power consumption are at best just the same as x86. So yes, ARM can sometimes match x86 IPC at low clock but for high clocks and complicated instruction sets at higher clocks and core counts, ARM would be no better and likely a lot worse.

https://www.pcworld.com/article/3323381/intel-vs-snapdragon-we-test-hps-envy-x2-with-both.html

2 cores vs 8

No contest really, ARM is suited to low power mobile devices, when you need to get the big boy stuff done, there's no comparison to a mature x86 architecture
 
Last edited:

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
Even if ARM was faster, it would take some significant push to get any market share away from x86, especially since Microsoft has pretty much given up with Windows on ARM. ARM rules mobile devices because thats where it shines. But it doesn't offer anything in the desktop world, and its only on parity with Intel's U-Series mobile chips in certain use cases.

If ARM got a foothold anywhere it would be in MacBooks. But that would be using chips that only Apple has.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |