Russia & Georgia Close to War

[straightalker]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Aimster
It appears that Russia is going to attack Georgia if they do not do what they want them to do.

What does Russia want Georgia to do?

Isn't this still sort of a Civil War or is Georgia completely a soverign Nation now???

From the sound of things over the years, Georgia is actually soveriegn. With independent Presidential elections etc.

Could this war be the payoff to Putin from the West - in exchange - for the West's war on Iran?

Putin was impervious to previous cash bribes from what i've gathered. He's no quite the candidate for 'former dictator row' on some plush tropical island. He's not an African petty dictator. Putin will deal with land only because he's actual to some extent not a total whore of the West. There is a competing faction against the West and it's France, Germany and Russia and others who hate the Anglo Faction of the USA and Britain.

This is armchair analysis and i don't claim to be a genius here. It just makes sense to me that on the eve of the planned USA military tac-nuking of Iran, Russia is making moves on Georgia. Will China get Taiwan out of this?

All this real estate trading could be making the Japanese envious of the military power required to be a player in that game. Will Japan(the world's second largest economy) militarize? Most likely if they do, it will all go very high tech weapons. They won't have any burden of having huge old stockpiles of obsolete Cold War toys gathering dust that cost a fortune to decommision and clean up.

 

[senseamp]

Georgia (well, Saakashvili and his junta mostly) is playing "pinch the bear"
Saakashvilis MO is, provoke Russia with stunts like this, then complain that Russia is oppressing him, etc and so on.
But what has he done for the people of Georgia? Basically alienated and antagonized their #1 trading partner and #1 source of remissions (from Georgians living in Russia.)
In all likelyhood, they will not be able to sell their main exports, wine and mineral water, in Russia, there is a bill in Duma to ban remissions to Georgia, Russia is not giving Georgians visas, and they are blocking auto, train and air traffic from Georgia, which will hammer their economy. And what is Georgia getting in return? Some military aid from the US, and remote hope of joining NATO and EU. The one benefitting is the US, which wants a passage to the Caspian that is not friendly to Russia or Iran. But your average Georgian will see little or no benefit from that, while suffering from trade war with Russia.
There is not going to be a war unless Saakashvili wants one. If he tries to reimpose central control in Abkhazia and South Ossettia through force, Russia will probably side with them, if not directly interfering, then through arming of their military forces to fight Georgia for independence.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: DeadByDawn

Originally posted by: BrownTown

Originally posted by: lyssword

Originally posted by: Horus
We will BURY you!

lol is that from red alert 2? I heard that when my friend was playing RA2

lol, yet another case of someone in these forums attributing a famous quote to a movie or computer game...

Pretty sad really

Since they are being asses without explaining it.

Nikita Khrushchev was the one who said the above quote. It was said in 1995, so very well could have been included in RA2. It was more a mistranstalation than anything else. He meant it more in a way of ideals than a literal sense. "Ie the The proletariat is the undertaker of capitalism".

For the two posters before this, yes people attribute famous quotes to video games and movies because video games and movies use the quotes as well. Not everyone goes and researches the entire script of a movie to see where they borrowed there lines from. So get off your little high horse.

 

[piasabird]

They should just build a nuclear Bomb.

 

[chcarnage]

Much can be at stake even if a situation looks static. Russia has military bases in Georgia, they have to be closed in 2008 according to a treaty. At the moment there are close to 3000 Russian soldiers on Georgian soil and the two enclaves are factually out of Georgian control.

Like in Transnistria, Russia tries to create Russia-friendly regimes in former Soviet satellites and it is ready for big expenses to preserve its influence. I don't know how far they will go but if they're not out of Georgia AND the enclaves by 2008 that would be a pretty explicit provocation.

Yes, Saakashvili accepted a deterioration in the Russian relationship, but what has Russia done for Georgia? Economy is only one perspective, the Russians supported a undemocratic and corrupted regime, too, because it served them to influence Georgia. With allies of this kind you don't need enemies.

 

[chcarnage]

Russia goes the tough route to get a belt of cooperative countries on its borders. It is doubtful that this will work, though. And of course it depends on western support for Georgia, too.

Russia decided that the confrontation is not over yet and tries to cripple the Georgian economy. 143 Georgians who illegally lived in Russia were expelled. It also repatriated 170 Russians living in Georgia because they can't cross the border because of the Russian blocade. Russia plans to outlaw money transfers from Russia to Georgia and to make it illegal for Georgian workers to enter Russia. This will be a big blow to the Georgian economy because the number of its migrant workers is in the hundred thousands.

The Georgian migratory worker contingent will be canceled and the maximum length of stay for Georgians is now 90 days instead of the former 180. The police of Moscow asked the supervisory school authority to create a list of scholars with potentially Georgian origins. (The school department logs all scholars, be they registered at the police or not.) This attempt of ethnic discrimination shows that Putin tries to ride the wave of xenophobia that moves through parts of Russia. But some say that Saakashvili, too, risked the conflict with domestic policy intentions in mind.

(Source in German)