Russia gets Crimea

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
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Hitler army didnt have a vast technological edge the West holds over Russia. Also Hitlers Germany didnt have a vastly larger economy to fund their army. Hitlers army also had 1/3rd the population in which to draw troops. The combined economy of the EU + US is nearly 34 trillion dollars vs Russia's 2.6 trillion. Population wise it is 700 vs 143 million. And the one of the biggest and probably most important. Hitlers army had Hitler directing it while the West has qualified commanders.

So many differences.

added to the fact that up until WW2, wars were still fought primarily over land.

The domination or air combat in modern warfare effectively neutralizes the historical advantage Russia always had against invading armies: winter.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
29,578
146
Crimea will cost Russia NOTHING unless we make it happen. It's really that simple. As of a few days Russian oligarchs dumped billions upon billions of dollars on foreign companies. They basically moved their money into safe investments.

What we have done is give a few travel restrictions on some bureaucrats that don't care and stopped a few politicians from moving their $320 that they have locked in with their Disneyland gift card. It's laughable and nobody is being punished. I'd invade too if all I was going to do was lose some coupons to Home Depot.

It's just he first step in sanctions. I believe there are currently 9 individuals on a no-business list, meaning not only can they not travel, they cant' withdraw any money using Visa or Mastercard, or anything related to US companies. But that's just 9 "jerks" as labeled by the US

Next step--oil can no longer be traded in dollars from Russian oil producers.

That would be pretty harsh.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
29,578
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I think Russia signed a new energy deal the other day too. That makes this an even bigger joke.

Yeah, Germany and Russia just signed a $7 billion dollar deal.

This is a giant tabloid joke at this point.

These are traded on an open market, however, and are usually facilitated via dollars, correct? This means a US bank would have to be involved. If the next level of sanctions hit, then those deals can never actually happen.
 

Lepton87

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2009
2,544
9
81
You underestimate the Ukrainians and, especially, the Poles.

I don't know about that. Russia would be an especially inconvenient opponent for Ukraine. 20% of Ukraine's soldiers are ethnic Russians, many of whom would desert to Russia. Some wouldn't want to fight a losing battle, some would just feel more Russian the Ukrainian. Most of those soldiers would openly desert to Russia just what we saw in Crimea. Loosing 10-15% if your forces before even the battle begins must be hard, but what could arguably be even worse for Ukraine are those Russian soldiers in the Ukrainian ranks who didn't desert but who would be royal to Russia. From the outside an overwhelming force and data leaks, sabotage and low morale from the inside. Russia has over 800 000 of active soldiers whereas Ukraine has 130 000 (it's probably safe to assume that 10% would dessert ) Poland has 100 000. The combined forces of Ukraine and Poland would still look tiny compared to Russia.
Of curse the sheer number of soldiers isn't end all be all of warfare. Russia used to have ill-equipped and poorly-skilled army but I heard that it all changed in the last 10 years.
 
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Agent11

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2006
3,535
1
0
The soviet invasion of Afghanistan was in 79, there are most likely still veterans of that conflict in Russia's military, then there are the Chechen conflicts and Georgia which were all much more recent.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Russia already has a port in the Baltics and nobody gives a shit. The Black Sea fleet is even weaker than the Baltic fleet if I recall correctly. In case of war the Baltic fleet would be at the bottom of the sea in minutes.

Unless it were in the heart of winter. I figured the lack of ice makes a Black Sea port more important for both military purposes and commerce, making control of Crimea that much more significant to Russia.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/97-ships-stuck-in-ice-near-st-petersburg/432622.html
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
It's just he first step in sanctions. I believe there are currently 9 individuals on a no-business list, meaning not only can they not travel, they cant' withdraw any money using Visa or Mastercard, or anything related to US companies. But that's just 9 "jerks" as labeled by the US

Next step--oil can no longer be traded in dollars from Russian oil producers.

That would be pretty harsh.

Yea, you don't want to go to far down that path. Russia doesn't have debt like we do. They can do more to harm us economically than the other way around.

U.S. analysts told TheBlaze that the sanctions announced Monday against seven of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs and politicians may not be enough to stop Putin. Some Russian leaders have even joked that these are insignificant measures from a weak U.S. administration.

“There is no doubt that Russia has been thinking long and hard about how to disrupt U.S. power and the value of the dollar in the global market,” a U.S. defense official said. “We’re mindful but I don’t think we’re mindful enough. One thing is certain the greatest threat to our stability is not a conventional war but the destabilization of our economy by an enemy.”

For the past five years, Putin has promised that he would take America’s role as the leading global financial mammoth away, vowing to create alternatives to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In 2011, he criticized the U.S. debt load, saying the “U.S. is living way beyond their means and shifting a part of their weight of their problems to the world economy.”

“To some extent [the U.S. is] living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar,” Putin said.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported a significant drop in foreign central banks’ Treasury bond holdings at the Federal Reserve. Analysts said they believed the drop was a result of Russia shifting Treasury bond holdings out of the Fed and into offshore accounts so it would be able to buy or sell its portfolio if the U.S. and its European allies imposed economic sanctions over Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Kremlin economic aide Sergei Glazyev made Russia’s intentions for economic warfare very clear, saying, “an attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of domination of the United States in the global financial system.”

Glazyvev said Russia could stop using the dollar, creating its own payment system with “our partners in the East and South.”

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...-could-signal-the-beginning-of-world-war-iii/


On a side note, is anybody getting out of the stock market? I am starting to get a little nervous about my investments. I could see this thing blowing up and killing the 5 year long bull market we have been riding.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,837
49,539
136
Yea, you don't want to go to far down that path. Russia doesn't have debt like we do. They can do more to harm us economically than the other way around.

What harm do you think Russia can do to the US related to our debt?

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/201...-could-signal-the-beginning-of-world-war-iii/

On a side note, is anybody getting out of the stock market? I am starting to get a little nervous about my investments. I could see this thing blowing up and killing the 5 year long bull market we have been riding.

You're quoting Glenn Beck's website now?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
29,578
146
Unless it were in the heart of winter. I figured the lack of ice makes a Black Sea port more important for both military purposes and commerce, making control of Crimea that much more significant to Russia.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/97-ships-stuck-in-ice-near-st-petersburg/432622.html

I was wondering about that comment as well. Russia really don't have a port in the Baltics--one that is serviceable, anyway.

The reason they have cherished the Baltic states for so long is because Riga has the only port that doesn't freeze over. This is what they want, and why Latvians maintain legitimate concern over any local Russian aggression.

Fucking Putin has always ordered his annual "military exercises" on that border. Think Fat Korean dictator and their annual shenanigans with the South.
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
Yea, you don't want to go to far down that path. Russia doesn't have debt like we do. They can do more to harm us economically than the other way around.

ROTFL. You realize that, like Japan (whose debt load is over twice the size of ours--something that I find funny when debt hawks list Japan as an entity holding US Treasuries without realizing just how much higher Japanese debt is), most of our debt is owed to American entities. Like that retirement portfolio that holds a bunch of Treasuries? Yea, we are passing a ton of debt to our poor children, who must pay it back to--wait, themselves? And the bits owned by foreign entities are so not because we can't find Americans to buy them, but because the sale of the debt is first-come-first serve, not Americans-first-and-then-others-can-pick-up-the-slack.

Ukrainian debt would be different, since much of theirs is owed to foreign entities.
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
Yes those HARSH sanctions Obama put on Russia, the same ones Russians are laughing at?

Oh the hardship 11 people have been sanctioned over a huge chunk of land being stolen.

You realize that this has absolutely nothing to do with Obama (not everything in the world does). The US isn't Russia's trading main partner, so it doesn't matter what we do. The EU, however, is. The EU's sanctions are the ones that matter, and the US just goes along with the EU's sanction level for consistency. For the time being, the EU is content with token sanctions because Crimea is kind of a unique case--a territory that was Russian until just 60 years ago that was given to Ukraine in an administrative reshuffle.

What I meant is that sanctions, if escalated, can be devastating.
 

michal1980

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2003
8,019
43
91
You realize that this has absolutely nothing to do with Obama (not everything in the world does). The US isn't Russia's trading main partner, so it doesn't matter what we do. The EU, however, is. The EU's sanctions are the ones that matter, and the US just goes along with the EU's sanction level for consistency. For the time being, the EU is content with token sanctions because Crimea is kind of a unique case--a territory that was Russian until just 60 years ago that was given to Ukraine in an administrative reshuffle.

What I meant is that sanctions, if escalated, can be devastating.

So I'm right, there aren't any real sanctions against Russia.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
The EU (and USA) needed to hold something back. I would expect the 'heavier' sanction were held back to have something to hold over Putin's head to dissuade him from moving into the Ukraine itself.

Fern
 

Broheim

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2011
4,592
2
81
Unless it were in the heart of winter. I figured the lack of ice makes a Black Sea port more important for both military purposes and commerce, making control of Crimea that much more significant to Russia.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/97-ships-stuck-in-ice-near-st-petersburg/432622.html

well, the bulk of the baltic fleet is stationed at the Kaliningrad oblast so that port shouldn't freeze over too much. But the fleet is irrelevant, the surrounding nations could crush it without a problem. although the Swedes and Finns wouldn't be much help, the Finnish just plan on laying down mines and going into the woods as far as I can tell and the Swedish navy seems to be built around "why öf leaving Skärgård, it is öf very nice this time of yeår, bork bork!" with their itty bitty corvettes.
 

TROLLERCAUST

Member
Mar 17, 2014
182
0
0
So it has started, ethnic cleansing.
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html

The whole Crimean Tatar population was deported to Russia's concentration camps in 1944. Almost 50 % of them died during just a few years in slavery.

I've heard arguments saying that Crimea has always been Russian. It's complete rubbish. While being a part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union, the Crimean Tatars where the majority in Crimea for the most part. Only after the genocide in 1940's have the Russians been the signifant majority there. 150 years ago almost no Russians lived in Crimea. The ethnic population there was murdered and replaced with Russians, yeah, it's always been Russian. :\
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
So I'm right, there aren't any real sanctions against Russia.

Not yet. And, TBH, I hope there never will be. That Crimea is it and that Putin thinks he's made his point, backs off, and things don't have to escalate. Because at the end of the day, even if we win (and we likely will), the reality is that nobody really wins from these sorts of conflicts.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
I was wondering about that comment as well. Russia really don't have a port in the Baltics--one that is serviceable, anyway.

The reason they have cherished the Baltic states for so long is because Riga has the only port that doesn't freeze over. This is what they want, and why Latvians maintain legitimate concern over any local Russian aggression.

Fucking Putin has always ordered his annual "military exercises" on that border. Think Fat Korean dictator and their annual shenanigans with the South.

Latvians are not as concerned as Ukrainians primarily because the Latvian ecomony is better than the Russian economy which is better than the Ukrainian economy.

Just from talking with someone I know who's parents immigrated over from Estonia, and still has a lot of family back there, saying that in these countries ethnic Russians are actually treated as second-class citizens, denied social & economic opportunities open to the rest of the population. It's not so cut & dry thinking only corrupt rabble-rousers are the cause of the succession movements. When combined in the Southern nations like Ukraine or Moldova, the economies are so much weaker that the conflicts intensify.

They're still worried about Russian aggression but they don't have the same level of internal problems that enable Russian aggression.

The grand moral is, treat others fairly and fewer conflicts arise.
 
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code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
So it has started, ethnic cleansing.
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html

The whole Crimean Tatar population was deported to Russia's concentration camps in 1944. Almost 50 % of them died during just a few years in slavery.

I've heard arguments saying that Crimea has always been Russian. It's complete rubbish. While being a part of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union, the Crimean Tatars where the majority in Crimea for the most part. Only after the genocide in 1940's have the Russians been the signifant majority there. 150 years ago almost no Russians lived in Crimea. The ethnic population there was murdered and replaced with Russians, yeah, it's always been Russian. :\

The thing that's pissed me off the most about all this has been the bald hypocrisy of the Russian propaganda. "We're worried about lawlessness." Yet all the lawlessness you see are thugs with the support of the Russian government (some who crossed the border from Russia) doing thuggish things. "We're worried about ethnic persecution." Yet, here we are...
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,893
34,856
136
Latvians are not as concerned as Ukrainians primarily because the Latvian ecomony is better than the Russian economy which is better than the Ukrainian economy.

Just from talking with someone I know who's parents immigrated over from Estonia, and still has a lot of family back there, saying that in these countries ethnic Russians are actually treated as second-class citizens, denied social & economic opportunities open to the rest of the population. It's not so cut & dry thinking only corrupt rabble-rousers are the cause of the succession movements. When combined in the Southern nations like Ukraine or Moldova, the economies are so much weaker that the conflicts intensify.

They're still worried about Russian aggression but they don't have the same level of internal problems that enable Russian aggression.

The grand moral is, treat others fairly and fewer conflicts arise.

Since the Soviet Union forcibly settled Russians en mass in these formerly sovereign nations and did the same things (and much worse) when they were in control I can understand the local resentment even if I don't agree with whatever discrimination they are subjected to on principle.

Latvia is also part of NATO and that's a line Putin won't cross.
 

TROLLERCAUST

Member
Mar 17, 2014
182
0
0
Since the Soviet Union forcibly settled Russians en mass in these formerly sovereign nations and did the same things (and much worse) when they were in control I can understand the local resentment even if I don't agree with whatever discrimination they are subjected to on principle.

Latvia is also part of NATO and that's a line Putin won't cross.

I don't know about Latvia but the only discrimination Russians in Estonia are subject is the fact that they can't obtain citizenship without a knowledge of the Estonian language. Tens of thousands of people were deported to slavery from the Baltic republics and replaced with hundreds of thousands of Russians during Soviet rule. Another form of ethnic cleansing. Now Russia is pissed because these countries are free of further russification.

Russia giving the finger to Estonia, again:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.

Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.
 

michal1980

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2003
8,019
43
91
Not yet. And, TBH, I hope there never will be. That Crimea is it and that Putin thinks he's made his point, backs off, and things don't have to escalate. Because at the end of the day, even if we win (and we likely will), the reality is that nobody really wins from these sorts of conflicts.

LOL right no one wins.

So far Putin has won.

How many other countries or parts of, are you wallflowers ready to give up all in the name of 'peace'?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,821
29,578
146
So I'm right, there aren't any real sanctions against Russia.

It's the opening move in a chess match, nothing more.

The next steps could very well be devastating to Russia; it's all in response to how things play out.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,893
34,856
136
I don't know about Latvia but the only discrimination Russians in Estonia are subject is the fact that they can't obtain citizenship without a knowledge of the Estonian language. Tens of thousands of people were deported to slavery from the Baltic republics and replaced with hundreds of thousands of Russians during Soviet rule. Another form of ethnic cleansing. Now Russia is pissed because these countries are free of further russification.

Russia giving the finger to Estonia, again:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

I have no doubt that claims of anti-Russian discrimination are inflated for political purposes but do consider the possibility that there is some as a result of Soviet rule. Regardless that obviously doesn't give Putin carte blanche to invade his neighbors whenever he pleases.

Estonia can give the finger right back to him. Typical cheap (and impotent) intimidation from him.
 
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