Russia gets Crimea

[Jaskalas]

I don't think Russia is going to invade continental Ukraine. But Putin wants to give Obama an off ramp and a way to save face over Crimea. Putin knows that he can't just take Crimea and not throw Obama a bone. So he is going to mass all these troops on the border and appear like he is planning to invade and then he'll draw them down and Obama can go around saying, see, our response worked, it deterred Russia from invading Ukraine. And Putin can look like a reasonable guy because he didn't do something crazy that he wasn't going to do anyways. A win win for everyone involved.

That is demented enough to be politically savvy. Let's hope you're right.

 

[senseamp]

That is demented enough to be politically savvy. Let's hope you're right.

If Russia wanted to invade South-East Ukraine, it would have done it already. Right after the revolution, when the new government is at its weakest and least able to respond and local opposition to it is at its peak. Like they did in Crimea. There is no point in waiting, every day gives Ukraine a chance to mobilize and rally allies. If they were going to do it, they would have already done it together with Crimea. Russians may not be strategic geniuses, but they understand simple things like this.

 

[code65536]

I don't think Russia is going to invade continental Ukraine. But Putin wants to give Obama an off ramp and a way to save face over Crimea. Putin knows that he can't just take Crimea and not throw Obama a bone. So he is going to mass all these troops on the border and appear like he is planning to invade and then he'll draw them down and Obama can go around saying, see, our response worked, it deterred Russia from invading Ukraine. And Putin can look like a reasonable guy because he didn't do something crazy that he wasn't going to do anyways. A win win for everyone involved.

I agree, that's most likely. I don't think he's crazy enough to invade Ukraine proper.

In hindsight, Putin played this well, at least in the short term. He knows the West is not stupid enough to go to war over Crimea. He knows that Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and other trade to impose real sanctions (even though those sanctions would hurt Russia more than Europe, he guessed correctly that Europe was not willing to endure that economic pain just to get back over something like Crimea). He knows that it's all a bluff, and he called it.

And before someone says, "well, it's because the West is weak", no, it's because this was a game that Russia couldn't lose. What could a theoretically "strong" West do differently? The options would still the same: a costly war with a nuclear power or a sanctions regime that would be too painful to justify for something as minor as Crimea.

The pressing concern is with the Ukraine itself and Russia massing troops on its border.

I think the Obama admin should strongly consider supplying arms to the Ukraine. I don't understand why we can do so to shady militia groups in Arab countries but not the Ukraine. I don't think there is any possibility such arms could ever find their way to radical Islamic jihadists or that the Ukraine will use them against a neighbor (other than Russia if it attacks).

The difference is that the Mujahadeen were willing to fight and die for their cause. The Ukrainians? Um. You don't know how many of them will will turn around and join the Russians if invaded. And of the remaining who are loyal to Ukraine, you don't know how many will stand and fight instead of flee. Weapons aren't everything--that will to fight is almost (if not more) important. Give Ukraine weapons, and there's a good chance they'll just end up in Russian hands.

Stationing some token NATO troops that Russia must fire upon if they wish to invade would be a far more effective deterrent, methinks.

 

[Genx87]

Sure he played this well. Instead of meager Russia GDP growth and foreign investment. There is capital flight and a recession predicted. Well played Putin, well played!

 

[Ventanni]

Putin is just holding his ground with the 100,000 troops station in the Crimea. It attaches consequences to the idea of Ukraine possibly re-taking the Crimea. I think he knows that if he attacks the Ukrainian mainland, then the West will get involved, and the Russian military is no match for Western hardware.

I think a long term effect that Putin may not have thought of is the fact that every single politician in Europe is probably thinking of ways to reduce or eliminate its reliance on Russian energy supplies.

 

[silicon]

Does the US want to get into a war with Russia and risk being blown to bits? Hopefully the diplomats can do their jobs and contain this problem early. Russia is feeling expansionist but the best solution would be for them to withdraw and save face.

 

[code65536]

Sure he played this well. Instead of meager Russia GDP growth and foreign investment. There is capital flight and a recession predicted. Well played Putin, well played!

That's because investors are jittery. Remember, we are not yet at the point where either side is restricting trade (or worse, starting WW3), so the market response so far has been in response to the risk of that happening. If Putin de-escalates and credibly convinces the market that these risks are unfounded and that this is the limit of his adventures, things would recover.

Whether or not he'll actually say and do the right things to "credibly convince" the market is debatable, but if he does, I do expect him to be able to get away with Crimea with very little in the way of consequences.

 

[werepossum]

If Russia wanted to invade South-East Ukraine, it would have done it already. Right after the revolution, when the new government is at its weakest and least able to respond and local opposition to it is at its peak. Like they did in Crimea. There is no point in waiting, every day gives Ukraine a chance to mobilize and rally allies. If they were going to do it, they would have already done it together with Crimea. Russians may not be strategic geniuses, but they understand simple things like this.

He's playing the long game. Crimea was simply an annexation of people who wanted to rejoin Russia (although the 95% vote was just poking the West in the eye, letting them know that he knows they know it was a sham election even Jimmy Carter wouldn't certify.) By making it clear that he can take at least half of Ukraine's remaining territory, he both prevents any massive Ukrainian/Western buildup to retake Crimea (on pain of losing half the remaining nation and being forced to fight to retake it) and has an olive branch to bargain away, costing himself and Russia little. Drop the sanctions and make no attempt to retake Crimea, or face the loss of half or all your remaining nation. It's a win-win for Russia and as a bonus, such actions as this and Georgia serve to warn other former Soviet vassals that they had better serve Russia's interests or else face the threat of becoming Russia.

Ventanni makes a good point, although politicians have notoriously short memories and when this passes will once again be more interested in cheap natural gas and oil than in Ukraine. This is the true gamble for Putin, for if he must build pipelines to serve China he both eats that cost and trades a pliant, peaceful, relatively weak customer for an aggressive customer. Right now that isn't such a big deal, but as China transitions to the world's superpower it might be a very big deal indeed as China flanks some very sparsely populated and resource-rich Russian territory. Twenty years from now, a Red China fueled by Russian energy might be the power looking for an excuse to annex some territory.

 

[ivwshane]

I thought this was a good read:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...s-expose-russian-trained-killers-in-kiev.html

I fully expect a movie to be made!

 

[Jaskalas]

Sure he played this well. Instead of meager Russia GDP growth and foreign investment. There is capital flight and a recession predicted. Well played Putin, well played!

It's called a down payment. Short term losses, huge long term gain through investment.

 

[norseamd]

sanctions regime that would be too painful to justify for something as minor as Crimea.

so if the west was strong and had energy independence this would not be a problem to enforce sanctions

 

[Genx87]

It's called a down payment. Short term losses, huge long term gain through investment.

So how many billions will Putin pay for a region that will be a money sink for the foreseeable future? Sounds like this decision is even better than previously thought by Russia's dictator.

 

[Genx87]

That's because investors are jittery. Remember, we are not yet at the point where either side is restricting trade (or worse, starting WW3), so the market response so far has been in response to the risk of that happening. If Putin de-escalates and credibly convinces the market that these risks are unfounded and that this is the limit of his adventures, things would recover.

Whether or not he'll actually say and do the right things to "credibly convince" the market is debatable, but if he does, I do expect him to be able to get away with Crimea with very little in the way of consequences.

I think this move will have longer term capital investment problems for Russia. Putin isnt leaving Crimea. So I don't expect the West to turn down the heat. And if he takes the south eastern part of Ukraine like it sounds like he is planning to do. I don't know when Russia will look attractive for the capital markets. It took a decade after the fall of the USSR before investors were willing to seriously move into Russia. Having a raving lunatic of a leader invading neighbors and playing dictator wont inspire investors. Maybe years after Putin is slipped a pill.

 

[senseamp]

So how many billions will Putin pay for a region that will be a money sink for the foreseeable future? Sounds like this decision is even better than previously thought by Russia's dictator.

Russia was giving Ukraine a $100/1000 cubic meter discount in exchange for Ukraine allowing the Russian fleet in Crimea. Ukraine imports 30 Billion cubic feet of gas per year. So that's $3B per year that Russia will save, which is about what it costs to subsidize Crimea.
There will be some upfront infrastructure costs, such as building bridges, railroad segments, and power lines over Kerch straight. On the other hand, there are also assets such as gas fields that can be exploited in Crimea and surrounding waters. In any case, Russia just spent $50B on a stupid Olympics. Crimea will be relatively cheap. Especially considering US spent $5,000B in Iraq and Afghanistan and got nothing. Russia will probably end up spending two to three orders of magnitude less in both live and treasure and get something it wanted to return for a long time.

 

[Fern]

I'm not liking what I'm hearing about the diplomatic goings on.

Russia wants to turn the Ukraine into a (loose) federation?

I think it's pretty clear what this would mean: the 'Russian' parts of the Ukraine would belong to Russia in all but name only.

Pretty clever. I hope our gang in Washington DC is up to the task.

Fern

 

[norseamd]

I'm not liking what I'm hearing about the diplomatic goings on.

Russia wants to turn the Ukraine into a (loose) federation?

I think it's pretty clear what this would mean: the 'Russian' parts of the Ukraine would belong to Russia in all but name only.

Pretty clever. I hope our gang in Washington DC is up to the task.

Fern

they invaded and annexed crimea and now they are making demands at the negotiating table?

we need to sned troops into poland and the baltic states and then send weapons to kyiv. so if russia attacks the roops in poland can move across the border into ukraine and support kyiv. so naval units can also be sent to the baltic and black seas

 

[werepossum]

I'm not liking what I'm hearing about the diplomatic goings on.

Russia wants to turn the Ukraine into a (loose) federation?

I think it's pretty clear what this would mean: the 'Russian' parts of the Ukraine would belong to Russia in all but name only.

Pretty clever. I hope our gang in Washington DC is up to the task.

Fern

Therefore the price of Russia not invading the rest of Ukraine is being given the Russian majority parts of Ukraine? Remains to be seen to what extent this is a bluff. I tend to agree with Senseamp that Russia's buildup is geared toward keeping Crimea and punishing Ukraine (thereby intimidating other nations Russia regards as rightly hers) at the least possible cost to Russia rather than insisting on breaking up Ukraine, but that's not exactly a particularly educated guess on my part. I just hope we don't blunder into war if it can be avoided at a reasonable cost.

 

[Fern]

they invaded and annexed crimea and now they are making demands at the negotiating table?
-snip-

Yes, exactly.

IMO they are telling us (the West) to 'give' them the parts of the Ukraine they want so they won't have to invade etc.

Either Putin is being opportunistic or he's had his eyes on the Ukraine from the very outset.

I'm afraid the threat of sanctions is proving to be rather ineffective.

Fern

 

[Fern]

Therefore the price of Russia not invading the rest of Ukraine is being given the Russian majority parts of Ukraine?
-snip-

That's what it sounds like to me.

In post #675 above senseamp describes a situation whereby Putin gives Obama a face-saving 'out'. Well, the current offer appears to be along those lines, except it ain't free.

IMO, this offer is an escalation.

Fern

 

[norseamd]

That's what it sounds like to me.

In post #675 above senseamp describes a situation whereby Putin gives Obama a face-saving 'out'. Well, the current offer appears to be along those lines, except it ain't free.

IMO, this offer is an escalation.

Fern

total autonomy is way too strong is ask for

we have nukes and he can not stop them even if he can hit us

 

[norseamd]

If Russia wanted to invade South-East Ukraine, it would have done it already. Right after the revolution, when the new government is at its weakest and least able to respond and local opposition to it is at its peak. Like they did in Crimea. There is no point in waiting, every day gives Ukraine a chance to mobilize and rally allies. If they were going to do it, they would have already done it together with Crimea. Russians may not be strategic geniuses, but they understand simple things like this.

would work except this is all putin

this likely had more to do with putin being embarrased at the olympics

he might try to force the west into a diplomatic concession that would "win" for putin and his ego

so he wants a victory no matter how phyrric

 

[werepossum]

That's what it sounds like to me.

In post #675 above senseamp describes a situation whereby Putin gives Obama a face-saving 'out'. Well, the current offer appears to be along those lines, except it ain't free.

IMO, this offer is an escalation.

Fern

Agreed, but is it an escalation in actual demands or merely an offsetting escalation to gain more in other concessions?

EDIT: I cannot believe that Putin is escalating demands because he has found Merkel, Obama and company weak. Their reaction seems to me (admittedly not really a student of foreign policy) to be exactly in line with what everyone expected. Why then the escalation unless it is merely a bargaining ploy?

total autonomy is way too strong is ask for

we have nukes and he can not stop them even if he can hit us

One thing Putin has that we do not is an absolute knowledge that we will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Also, Russia has a more thorough missile defense system than do we. Prior to Reagan Russia demanded and received concessions from the US to limit missile defenses to one city each knowing that the US had no political will to provide D.C. with protection denied to the rest of the country - although they cannot possibly be confident about its ability to stop ICBMs even when not MIRVed. One reason we have tried to make a widespread curtain defense capable of boost phase or orbital phase interception is that striking an intercontinental missile is extraordinarily difficult in its terminal phase. Russia has to be cognizant of that difficulty, so I think nuclear capability is not relevant for either side except as a last guaranty of Russian territorial integrity if they go to war and lose.

EDIT: Also, while Putin may be willing to invade Ukraine, I guarantee he is not eager to engage in a widespread war with the US and NATO. The risk is more that either we will blunder into it or that one side will regard as mandatory something the other side will never grant. It's possible to go to war with neither side truly wanting that war.

 

[code65536]

Russia wants to turn the Ukraine into a (loose) federation?

I think it's pretty clear what this would mean: the 'Russian' parts of the Ukraine would belong to Russia in all but name only.

Plus Ukraine's neutrality (i.e., no EU, no NATO?). Which the Ukrainian PM immediately dismissed as insulting, and judging from the failure to reach an agreement after the first day of the Paris talks, I'm guessing the US isn't intending to let Russia get away with something that blatantly lopsided.

But that's Russia's opening offer, so maybe it's just the typical negotiation tactic of starting with something ridiculous and then working towards something more palatable.

this likely had more to do with putin being embarrased at the olympics

Wait, what? The Olympics went off without a hitch, and Russia came out on top in the medal standings...

 

[norseamd]

Wait, what? The Olympics went off without a hitch, and Russia came out on top in the medal standings...

putin lost ukraine while the olympics were going on. the olympics were supposed to showcase russian might

the fact that this happened is likely embarassing for putin

the us may be doing more behind the scenes than is apparent

does not excuse anything that russia is doing and they are ruining their world image

 

[norseamd]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-ukraine-crisis-global-analysis-idUSBREA2U09I20140331