Russia gets Crimea

[Fern]

Agreed, but is it an escalation in actual demands or merely an offsetting escalation to gain more in other concessions?

Well, it does seem like an escalation in demands to me.

He's had his troops massing on the Ukrainian border for some time now. Perhaps I'm failing to remember correctly, but my recollection is Putin has claimed that extremist radical are running amok and persecuting ethnic Russians etc. and that's why they're there.

I don't recall him threatening to invade the Ukraine or demanding their territory. It's seems to me that this latest proposal from Lavrov is exactly that: we'll back off the Ukraine if you give us the Russian parts.

TBH, that took me by surprise yesterday. So, no, IDK what the heck he is doing.

I'm also a little concerned about our negotiating posture. Putin stole/annexed part of another country and he's making demands?

This strikes as about as proper as someone stealing my car and wrecking it and when we meet up to discuss it I'm expecting the talks to about my compensation, but instead he's demanding I pay the repair bills so he can resume driving it.

I was thinking WTH? Putin/Russia stole a lot of the Ukraine's assets. Why aren't we talking about how much Russia is going to pay for the loss of their military base that Russia was renting, the loss of Ukrainian bases there, the loss of the Ukraine's ships and submarine and other Ukrainian government assets.

IMO, this thing is upside down and I'm not sure how we got to this point.

EDIT: I cannot believe that Putin is escalating demands because he has found Merkel, Obama and company weak. Their reaction seems to me (admittedly not really a student of foreign policy) to be exactly in line with what everyone expected. Why then the escalation unless it is merely a bargaining ploy?

Yeah, Obama et al did pretty much what everyone expected. But it was acknowledged that there wasn't much that could be done to Russia without hurting ourselves too. The fact is we are weak, short of military force we ain't got much 'stick'.

Would concern me if Putin is one those "everyone" who expected exactly what we did.

Lately seems that every article I've read by some Russia/international relations expert has said we shouldn't be surprised at Putin's actions. They've said he's talked openly about his plans to rebuild the old Russian empire since 1999 when he came into power.

What if he calculates it's time for him to move forward? Obama's a lame duck President with low approval ratings and we're deeply in debt. It'll be 2017 before a new President takes over. Europe may be checkmated by their dependance on Russian oil/gas. It'll take a few years to fix that.

Maybe he thinks the time is right?
---------------

A few other things:

- Unlike others here I think the Ukraine is quite the prize. They don't have any oil/gas, no big deal as Russia has plenty of that. However, the Ukraine does have a strong manufacturing sector in heavy transportation equipment, a strong IT sector and a lot of valuable agricultural land. They've got a sizable area with that famous rich, black soul.

- Putin's thinking is in question too. Merkel said he was out of touch with reality and 'out there'. It's no secret he's long operated in very isolated conditions, mostly surrounded by a small cadre of former KGB types. It's been claimed he's paranoid and believes his own propaganda. If we don't know what/how he is thinking, what he believes the facts to be, he may prove to be unpredictable to us.

- Russia's economy was already tanking by the end of 2013. So were his approval ratings (which are now up sharply). He may not think he's got much to lose as regards those.

OTOH, he could just be trolling us.

One thing Putin has that we do not is an absolute knowledge that we will not be the first to use nuclear weapons.

Yep, he's got that too.

Fern

 

[werepossum]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-ukraine-crisis-global-analysis-idUSBREA2U09I20140331

Interesting, thanks.

 

[norseamd]

Interesting, thanks.

putin lost international respect because of the invasion and annexation

there is likely a lot more going on that we do not know about

and the us might be thinking about what the long term effects of this are

 

[werepossum]

putin lost international respect because of the invasion and annexation

there is likely a lot more going on that we do not know about

and the us might be thinking about what the long term effects of this are

For years I subscribed to the CFR. Trust me, there are a lot of very smart people thinking about the long term effects.

 

[norseamd]

For years I subscribed to the CFR. Trust me, there are a lot of very smart people thinking about the long term effects.

what is cfr?

 

[code65536]

what is cfr?

http://www.cfr.org/

 

[norseamd]

http://www.cfr.org/

went to the wikipedia page last night when i was looking at the staff and programs of international relations at the university of chicago.

what do you guys think about foreign policy?

 

[zinfamous]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/01/ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSL5N0MT14Z20140401

So, Putin/Gazprom raise gas prices to Ukraine by 50%, and claim that Ukraine is now in debt to them for ~$1.2billion in unpaid prices for previously-delivered gas.

This, due to the deal signed by Yanukovyich, for pricing to Ukraine...which led to the rebellion. Now, of course, Yanukovyich is an official state adviser regarding Ukraine policy for Putin.

So, acting presidents no longer sign deals and contracts based on their country, but only based on themselves? What the fuck is this asinine thuggery that Putin is engaging in.

Pretty clear to me that he is just piling on "legitimate claims for invasion." I think he announced, again yesterday, that "the linguistic rights" Of Russian minority in Ukraine is being violated.

I now wait for the Mexican president to claim that "the linguistic rights" of Mexican minority in the US are being violated.

motherfuckers.

 

[norseamd]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/01/ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSL5N0MT14Z20140401

So, Putin/Gazprom raise gas prices to Ukraine by 50%, and claim that Ukraine is now in debt to them for ~$1.2billion in unpaid prices for previously-delivered gas.

This, due to the deal signed by Yanukovyich, for pricing to Ukraine...which led to the rebellion. Now, of course, Yanukovyich is an official state adviser regarding Ukraine policy for Putin.

So, acting presidents no longer sign deals and contracts based on their country, but only based on themselves? What the fuck is this asinine thuggery that Putin is engaging in.

Pretty clear to me that he is just piling on "legitimate claims for invasion." I think he announced, again yesterday, that "the linguistic rights" Of Russian minority in Ukraine is being violated.

I now wait for the Mexican president to claim that "the linguistic rights" of Mexican minority in the US are being violated.

motherfuckers.

crimea requires like 90% of the electricity from ukraine in addition to other supplies

we can raise prices on those

 

[iGas]

I'm sure that the Chinese and Israelis are watching this with keen interest, because the Russian is proving that the UN & NATO have no teeth when dealing illegal land grabs.

 

[senseamp]

Ukraine imports 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. At $500 per 1K cubic meters that Russia is going to jack Ukraine's prices up to, that's $15B per year, or "coincidentally" pretty much the size of the bailout Ukraine is getting from IMF and EU. The money we are giving to Ukraine is going straight to Gazprom.

 

[zinfamous]

I'm sure that the Chinese and Israelis are watching this with keen interest, because the Russian is proving that the UN & NATO have no teeth when dealing illegal land grabs.

well, no NATO nations are involved, so.....

 

[werepossum]

went to the wikipedia page last night when i was looking at the staff and programs of international relations at the university of chicago.

what do you guys think about foreign policy?

It would certainly be interesting. I think only the very brightest find really good jobs in that field, so be prepared to work your ass off and relocate to the Beltway. Unless you merely want to teach, sixty hour weeks are probably the norm. Most of the Council on Foreign Relations authors work for think tanks and most actually have several for-pay positions.

I initially checked them out because some were alleging they were a shadow government and I wanted to judge for myself, so I picked up a copy at an airport bookstore. I was impressed enough to subscribe for years. I've not been a subscriber for several years, but if you have an interest in foreign affairs, I highly recommend them. They cover foreign affairs thoughtfully, in depth, and from a variety of viewpoints from some very smart and knowledgeable people. Not a quick or light read, but definitely one that will make you think.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/01/ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSL5N0MT14Z20140401

So, Putin/Gazprom raise gas prices to Ukraine by 50%, and claim that Ukraine is now in debt to them for ~$1.2billion in unpaid prices for previously-delivered gas.

This, due to the deal signed by Yanukovyich, for pricing to Ukraine...which led to the rebellion. Now, of course, Yanukovyich is an official state adviser regarding Ukraine policy for Putin.

So, acting presidents no longer sign deals and contracts based on their country, but only based on themselves? What the fuck is this asinine thuggery that Putin is engaging in.

Pretty clear to me that he is just piling on "legitimate claims for invasion." I think he announced, again yesterday, that "the linguistic rights" Of Russian minority in Ukraine is being violated.

I now wait for the Mexican president to claim that "the linguistic rights" of Mexican minority in the US are being violated.

motherfuckers.

Let us hope this is more of a bargaining ploy. If Putin attempts to annex the remainder of Ukraine I don't see how we avoid going to war.

well, no NATO nations are involved, so.....

I dunno, Germany is taking the lead here. NATO is taking this very, very seriously.

 

[senseamp]

Putin will annex Ukraine's budget. Why buy the cow if you can get the milk for free?

 

[Fern]

The Ukraine is not as helpless as everyone seems to think, that is, as long as they have the BB's. (Brains and the balls to execute.)

A pretty good chunk of the gas that Russia exports to Europe runs through pipelines in Ukraine. (I think most runs through a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany.)

The Ukraine could threaten to stop it (sabotage) and/or demand payment for the pipeline (or much higher payment).

I'm not sure what Putin is up to, but he's keeping up the pressure and seems a few steps ahead of our crew in Washington DC (and Western Europe).

Last weekend's proposal that the Ukraine become a loose federation put the pressure on Ukraine and us.

Kerry said it was up to the Ukraine, a reasonable enough remark at the time. But I don't think anybody believes the Ukraine wants to do that. And they're likely going to ask us and Western Europe if we'll help defend them when they tell Russia 'no'. Well, that puts the pressure on us, doesn't it?

Now the Ukrainians could tell us and Western Europe that if we don't help them they'll sabotage the pipelines. And they could tell Russia if they don't back off the same thing.

Putin knows this. I wouldn't be surprised if that's why he took the Ukraine's only submarine etc. (I'm no military/navy expert but I don't think there's much, if any, value to the warm water port at Crimea. The Russian port in Syria seems far more important to me. Being in the Black Sea is a lot like being in a bathtub, and sailing through the straights to get out is hugely problematic. It's probably the easiest place in the world to sink a ship. I.e., a fleet in the Black Sea at wartime is trapped and essentially useless.)

Has Putin been angling for the Ukraine all along? Given the piplelines is it a bigger strategic asset than the Crimean port?

Washington DC better step up their game.

Edit: Forgot to say I don't much like Kerry switching over to the Middle East now. We've got too little talent spread far too thin.

Fern

 

[code65536]

The submarine was just a symbolic middle finger, nothing else. Designed in the 1950's. Every other sub in that class was turned into scrap metal or a museum years ago. It spend the last decade and a half mothballed. That thing is worthless militarily; it's good for propaganda and headlines, but that's about it.

 

[senseamp]

The Ukraine is not as helpless as everyone seems to think, that is, as long as they have the BB's. (Brains and the balls to execute.)

A pretty good chunk of the gas that Russia exports to Europe runs through pipelines in Ukraine. (I think most runs through a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany.)

The Ukraine could threaten to stop it (sabotage) and/or demand payment for the pipeline (or much higher payment).

I'm not sure what Putin is up to, but he's keeping up the pressure and seems a few steps ahead of our crew in Washington DC (and Western Europe).

Last weekend's proposal that the Ukraine become a loose federation put the pressure on Ukraine and us.

Kerry said it was up to the Ukraine, a reasonable enough remark at the time. But I don't think anybody believes the Ukraine wants to do that. And they're likely going to ask us and Western Europe if we'll help defend them when they tell Russia 'no'. Well, that puts the pressure on us, doesn't it?

Now the Ukrainians could tell us and Western Europe that if we don't help them they'll sabotage the pipelines. And they could tell Russia if they don't back off the same thing.

Putin knows this. I wouldn't be surprised if that's why he took the Ukraine's only submarine etc. (I'm no military/navy expert but I don't there's much, if any, value to the warm water port at Crimea. The Russian port in Syria seems far more important to me. Being in the Black Sea is a lot like being in a bathtub, and sailing through the straights to get out is hugely problematic. It's probably the easiest place in the world to sink a ship. I.e., a fleet in the Black Sea at wartime is trapped and essentially useless.)

Has Putin been angling for the Ukraine all along? Given the piplelines is it a bigger strategic asset than the Crimean port?

Washington DC better step up their game.

Edit: Forgot to say I don't much like Kerry switching over to the Middle East now. We've got too little talent spread far too thin.

Fern

Do you really think EU is going to allow Ukraine to hold their gas supplies hostage in the middle of winter? Do you think they (and US) are going to allow their new pet project Ukraine to get cut off from Russian gas in the middle of winter and risk destabilizing the industrial Eastern regions most dependent on this gas? No, they'll just give Ukraine more money to pay for Russian gas. Russia knows it, and they are taking full advantage and jacking up the price. Russia doesn't want eastern Ukraine. It's a money pit, and under the current arrangement, the money EU+US throw into that pit drains into Russia. Crimea was Ukrainian leverage over Russia, and that is now gone, and with it whatever gas discounts Russia was giving Ukraine for fleet basing rights. There are no cheaper alternatives to Russian gas, even at the price Ukraine will be paying. LNG is much more expensive, and EU would have to outbid the Asian buyers who are paying twice what EU pays Russia for gas, to attract those supplies to their shores.

 

[cubby1223]

Do you really think EU is going to allow Ukraine to hold their gas supplies hostage in the middle of winter?

Middle of winter is 10 months away, plenty of time to see how things play out. If Ukraine is going to take bold steps against Russia, I think they'll be consulting EU countries throughout, I don't imagine Ukraine will take a course of action that pisses off everyone around them.

 

[senseamp]

Middle of winter is 10 months away, plenty of time to see how things play out. If Ukraine is going to take bold steps against Russia, I think they'll be consulting EU countries throughout, I don't imagine Ukraine will take a course of action that pisses off everyone around them.

I don't see what Ukraine's leverage is. If they take those bold steps outside peak demand, Russia can just pump the gas to EU through the Baltic pipeline. If they do it during peak demand when Ukraine's pipelines are needed, the EU will tell them to knock it off. They can consult with EU all day long and twice on Sunday, it won't change the picture.

 

[Fern]

The submarine was just a symbolic middle finger, nothing else. Designed in the 1950's. Every other sub in that class was turned into scrap metal or a museum years ago. It spend the last decade and a half mothballed. That thing is worthless militarily; it's good for propaganda and headlines, but that's about it.

Use it to take out the Baltic Sea pipeline?

Fern

 

[norseamd]

Putin will annex Ukraine's budget. Why buy the cow if you can get the milk for free?

he wanted the cow

 

[norseamd]

I don't see what Ukraine's leverage is. If they take those bold steps outside peak demand, Russia can just pump the gas to EU through the Baltic pipeline. If they do it during peak demand when Ukraine's pipelines are needed, the EU will tell them to knock it off. They can consult with EU all day long and twice on Sunday, it won't change the picture.

you act as if the eu is a thoughtless and neutral rock

 

[norseamd]

It would certainly be interesting. I think only the very brightest find really good jobs in that field, so be prepared to work your ass off and relocate to the Beltway. Unless you merely want to teach, sixty hour weeks are probably the norm. Most of the Council on Foreign Relations authors work for think tanks and most actually have several for-pay positions. I initially checked them out because some were alleging they were a shadow government and I wanted to judge for myself, so I picked up a copy at an airport bookstore. I was impressed enough to subscribe for years. I've not been a subscriber for several years, but if you have an interest in foreign affairs, I highly recommend them. They cover foreign affairs thoughtfully, in depth, and from a variety of viewpoints from some very smart and knowledgeable people. Not a quick or light read, but definitely one that will make you think.

actually i meant the magazine

 

[werepossum]

actually i meant the magazine

Ah, my bad. Coupled with the university bit I thought you meant as a career choice. As I said, I was impressed enough to subscribe for years. These are not generally people who share my own world view, but they write good, informed, in-depth articles well worth the read. It's always good to have one's views challenged by smart people.

 

[Fern]

Originally Posted by senseamp View Post
Putin will annex Ukraine's budget. Why buy the cow if you can get the milk for free?

he wanted the cow

Senseamp's logic is sound. However, I think he ignores that Putin wants to rebuild the Russian Empire and not just pick the West's pockets for a few years.

I once took a graduate business class taught by a Harvard professor. The subject was competition in business. Most people think competition refers exclusively to those who produce the same good or service that you do. It does not.

What Putin is doing is a classic form of competition. He/Russia has become so a large supplier he can exert leverage over his customers, in this case the Ukraine and Western Europe, and jack up prices. They are ways to neutralize this and they will be implemented in due time.

This is also a national security issue for Western Europe. If they weren't fully aware of that before, they are now.

Fern