Russia gets Crimea

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code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
Why buy the cow if you can get the milk for free? Eastern Ukraine would be a very expensive cow for Russia to buy.

The problem is, we're not sure how pragmatic Putin is any more and how much he's driven by his personal ambition and grievances. Or if he's able to put the ultra-nationalist genie back into the bottle now that he's unleashed it.

And I also disagree that Crimea is a leverage against Russia. Years ago, Russia had started building a new naval base, to the northwest of Sochi; any leverage Ukraine would have over Russia by way of the Crimean base would be short-lived, as the new base isn't that far from completion. That, and the Black Sea Fleet is pathetic and pretty much useless anyway--it's more of a floating symbol than an actual fleet.

The West did not expect Russia to take Crimea because isolation is not in Russia's economic interests, and Crimea is not strategically important. Yet Putin did so anyway, because he's driven by impulses that the West had foolishly deemed irrational.
 

TROLLERCAUST

Member
Mar 17, 2014
182
0
0
It's a mouthpiece of the Russian government, so straight out of the horse's mouth as far as their position is concerned.

A month ago Putin claimed there are no Russian troops outside Russian military bases in Crimea. He claimed Russia has no intentions to annex Crimea. He claimed Russia has no interest in supporting separatists in Crimea. Look what happened. Russia has been spewing so much lies you can basically take everything they say and turn it upside down and you'll get the thruth.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Crimea is an expensive cow but they paid for it.
Crimea was not giving Russia any milk, it was allowing Ukraine to milk Russia.
Russia was paying Ukraine (in gas price discounts) for hosting its fleet in Crimea. The West (through loans to Ukraine) will be paying Russia for gas that Eastern Ukraine consumes.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
The problem is, we're not sure how pragmatic Putin is any more and how much he's driven by his personal ambition and grievances. Or if he's able to put the ultra-nationalist genie back into the bottle now that he's unleashed it.

And I also disagree that Crimea is a leverage against Russia. Years ago, Russia had started building a new naval base, to the northwest of Sochi; any leverage Ukraine would have over Russia by way of the Crimean base would be short-lived, as the new base isn't that far from completion. That, and the Black Sea Fleet is pathetic and pretty much useless anyway--it's more of a floating symbol than an actual fleet.

The West did not expect Russia to take Crimea because isolation is not in Russia's economic interests, and Crimea is not strategically important. Yet Putin did so anyway, because he's driven by impulses that the West had foolishly deemed irrational.

Crimea is strategic. There is a reason it has been fought over again and again. He who controls it, controls the Black Sea.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Crimea is strategic. There is a reason it has been fought over again and again. He who controls it, controls the Black Sea.

I don't see much, if any, value in "controlling" the Black Sea in these modern times.

If Russia's fleet, pathetic as it is, is harbored in the Black Sea the Bosphorus will likely mean the fleet will remain bottled up and contained to the Black Sea in time of war. Ships are very vulnerable while in the Bosphorus.

Fern
 

k3n

Senior member
Jan 15, 2001
328
1
71
I don't see much, if any, value in "controlling" the Black Sea in these modern times.

If Russia's fleet, pathetic as it is, is harbored in the Black Sea the Bosphorus will likely mean the fleet will remain bottled up and contained to the Black Sea in time of war. Ships are very vulnerable while in the Bosphorus.

Fern

According to a "wings of red star" documentary on Yak-38, supercarriers, weren't permitted to cross the Bosphorus, Red or Blue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YoNpkkdkFs
China, which got its current supercarrier from Ukraine, had to have it's engine's removed and be classified as a sea "casino", so as not to conflict with the Montreux convention of 1936, see last paragraph of the following link. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/naval-arms-control-1936.htm

If one wishes to mount a successful invasion into Russia, from the west similar to Napoleon and Hitler, then Crimea is indeed a great place for re-supplying, as its ports aren't frozen during the winter. Unless Turkey doesn't mind Istanbul/Constantinople being turned into a radioactive wasteland, it would be foolish, to let offensive NATO ships, i.e. supercarriers.

Russian Mindset, by the Caspian Report (narrator is of Azerbaijani descent; they don't get along with Russians and Armenians)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE6rSljTwdU

Lol: Why did Israel fail to back US-supported UN resolution on Crimea?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-di...-us-supported-un-resolution-on-crimea/5375803
 
Last edited:

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I can understand why Israel failed to back it, given the occupation. More interesting is why Turkey supported it. They are occupying Northern Cyprus for 40 years now. Interestingly, same NATO that is so upset about Russia in Ukraine doesn't do anything about its own member state occupying it, and even supplies Turkey with arms.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
Crimea was not giving Russia any milk, it was allowing Ukraine to milk Russia.
Russia was paying Ukraine (in gas price discounts) for hosting its fleet in Crimea. The West (through loans to Ukraine) will be paying Russia for gas that Eastern Ukraine consumes.

And Russia's stock market lost billions in wealth, their currency tanked, and capital flight is estimated at 70 billion\qtr. The cost is far greater than anything they think can be recouped by upping the cost of gas.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The problem is, we're not sure how pragmatic Putin is any more and how much he's driven by his personal ambition and grievances. Or if he's able to put the ultra-nationalist genie back into the bottle now that he's unleashed it.

I believe it was Ukraine who let that genie out.

And I also disagree that Crimea is a leverage against Russia. Years ago, Russia had started building a new naval base, to the northwest of Sochi; any leverage Ukraine would have over Russia by way of the Crimean base would be short-lived, as the new base isn't that far from completion. That, and the Black Sea Fleet is pathetic and pretty much useless anyway--it's more of a floating symbol than an actual fleet.

The West did not expect Russia to take Crimea because isolation is not in Russia's economic interests, and Crimea is not strategically important. Yet Putin did so anyway, because he's driven by impulses that the West had foolishly deemed irrational.

It's not in Russia's interest to have Ukraine as a part of Nato, nor are Putin's impulses less rational than Netanyahu's. Probably more rational, given ethnic Russian Majorities in many parts of Ukraine. That can't be said of Palestine or the nature of Israeli annexation.

Double standards for "friends" vs "enemies" are quite common, it seems.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146

(the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the five Central Asian “stans” of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) that were part of the Soviet Union until 1991, as well as many East European states that were subject to Russian occupation from the end of World War II to 1989 have become very nervous.

who writes this crap? the author doesn't recognize that most of these 14 countries were never part of the empire--they were also occupied along with the other "eastern european nations from the end of world war 2."
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
who writes this crap? the author doesn't recognize that most of these 14 countries were never part of the empire--they were also occupied along with the other "eastern european nations from the end of world war 2."

some of those countries were never considered seperate areas like they were in the soviet union

most of the soviet union was actually conquered by the russian tsars

in fact during the 1800s russia and england were competing for influence in southern central asia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

the caucausus countries, poland, the central asian countries, siberia, ukraine, belarus, the baltic countries, and finland were all under the rule of the tsars
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
I have to say that after recent Russian actions outside if Crimea a lot of people in this thread look awfully naive.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
The unrest is restoring leverage for the pro-Russian Eastern Ukraine. Of course Russia is going to support it.
It's giving the Kiev regime a choice, you have a civil war, or you can come to terms with Russia. No NATO is going to be term number 1, and no EU is going to be term number 2.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/comm...olumn-ukraine-putin-20140420,0,1372825.column

"It's New Russia," he trumpeted. "Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, Odessa were not part of Ukraine in czarist times; they were transferred in 1920. Why? God knows."
Actually, every Russian historian knows: Lenin drew those borders to make sure Ukraine's population included plenty of reliable Russians.
What became independent Ukraine was built to be a divided country easily controlled by Russia.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
some of those countries were never considered seperate areas like they were in the soviet union

most of the soviet union was actually conquered by the russian tsars

in fact during the 1800s russia and england were competing for influence in southern central asia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

the caucausus countries, poland, the central asian countries, siberia, ukraine, belarus, the baltic countries, and finland were all under the rule of the tsars

The Baltic States were not under the rule of the tsars. They were "under rule" of the German/Prussian empire for nearly 500 years, back and forth. They were briefly occupied by the Ruskies during WW1, during the bolshevik revolution, and fought for and won their independence at the end of the war. Latvia was an independant nation from 1918 until Russian invasion and occupation in 1941 (when the first 50k or so citizens were removed and sent to the Gulag). The German army then invaded and occupied until 1944, when the Russians returned, occupied, killed another 20k or so people, and solidified their occupation.

If any other nation has a "legitimate claim of occupation" on that territory, it would be the Germans. But, again, it's essentially a feudal claim, then followed by a history of occupation under soviet rule.

But the actual offense that I am pointing out is that these countries should somehow be considered different from countries like Poland and Czechoslovakia that were "occupied," where as the Baltics were somehow "a part of the Soviet Union." There is no legitimate distinction there, as the Baltics were equally occupied, and never officially recognized by any western nation and the UN as part of the USSR. Throughout the history of the USSR, they were always recognized as occupied; unless one was a soviet sympathizer.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
The Baltic States were not under the rule of the tsars. They were "under rule" of the German/Prussian empire for nearly 500 years, back and forth. They were briefly occupied by the Ruskies during WW1, during the bolshevik revolution, and fought for and won their independence at the end of the war. Latvia was an independant nation from 1918 until Russian invasion and occupation in 1941 (when the first 50k or so citizens were removed and sent to the Gulag). The German army then invaded and occupied until 1944, when the Russians returned, occupied, killed another 20k or so people, and solidified their occupation. If any other nation has a "legitimate claim of occupation" on that territory, it would be the Germans. But, again, it's essentially a feudal claim, then followed by a history of occupation under soviet rule. But the actual offense that I am pointing out is that these countries should somehow be considered different from countries like Poland and Czechoslovakia that were "occupied," where as the Baltics were somehow "a part of the Soviet Union." There is no legitimate distinction there, as the Baltics were equally occupied, and never officially recognized by any western nation and the UN as part of the USSR. Throughout the history of the USSR, they were always recognized as occupied; unless one was a soviet sympathizer.

fair enough
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
keep in mind this is a military site and not a general history forum

poland also has been invaded and conquered and occupied by both germany and russia throughout history

germany and russia shared a border during the early 20th century right?
 
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