Russia gets Crimea

[Victorian Gray]

If I were President I wouldn't fear escalation. I'd say you back out now or it's nuke time. :twisted:

Bloody good thing that you're not President then.

 

[John Connor]

LOL! Hey! Peace through strength! I would at least put the missile defense shield back in Poland.

 

[Screech]

As an interesting thought exercise, what if:

american missiles + bombs (from stealth bombers or whatever your preferred method of delivery) hit numerous ..."pro-russian" positions

russia protests

America says "well, they aren't Russian, right? Should be fine?"

what happens then?

 

[Sacrilege]

As an interesting thought exercise, what if:

american missiles + bombs (from stealth bombers or whatever your preferred method of delivery) hit numerous ..."pro-russian" positions

russia protests

America says "well, they aren't Russian, right? Should be fine?"

what happens then?

"The United States' cavalier military action thousands of miles from its borders is putting Ukrainians, including ethnic Russians, in harm's way. The US is meddling in an internal Novorossiya matter and an errant bomb or missile could kill innocent civilians. We all saw the humanitarian crisis that US meddling created in Iraq, another nation thousands of miles from their borders. Ukraine borders Russia, and as the local power, Russia must send a peacekeeping force into eastern Ukraine to stabilize the situation and protect civilians. Once stability has been restored, free and fair elections will be held so that Novorossiya can determine their political future."

 

[werepossum]

I will say one thing about Putler: when it comes to lying, he has balls.

Comparing Ukraine's actions to that of Nazi Germany:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28985715
(Wait, what?! Who's the one invading countries on the manufacturered pretext of protecting your ethnic ilk?)

Russian soldiers died on "training exercises", apparently. Must be one hell of an accident-prone boot camp. Wait, I thought you said that these people were on vacation?
http://news.yahoo.com/army-wives-urge-russia-come-clean-soldiers-ukraine-185525694.html

And, of course, more blaming of Ukraine. How dare Ukraine defend itself instead of bending over and graciously accepting subjugation!
http://news.yahoo.com/putin-says-russia-ready-respond-aggression-123956691.html

For Putler to use such grotesquely bald-faced lies in this day and age is just mind-boggling.

Question is, is Putin invading east Ukraine as a training exercise for taking all of Ukraine, or taking all of Ukraine as a training exercise for taking Poland, or taking Ukraine and Poland as a training exercise for taking all of Europe?

1. He only wants Crimea. Um, and eastern Ukraine.

2. He only wants a little bit of Czechoslovakia. Okay, all of Czechoslovakia. Um, and half of Poland . . .

Makes one think.

That's one possible explanation (he "cares").

Another is providing plausible deniability for for the consumption of others who may be reluctant to act. Such plausible deniability gives the reluctant person cover for his/her reluctance. I've seen this tactic used before; it can be very effective.

Fern

That's in effect the same thing, i.e. he cares because it helps him with someone else. Absolutely no one believes Putin cares just because he cares.

LOL! Hey! Peace through strength! I would at least put the missile defense shield back in Poland.

Mo' debinitely.

 

[Victorian Gray]

LOL! Hey! Peace through strength! I would at least put the missile defense shield back in Poland.

You mean the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System which is scheduled to be deployed by 2018?

 

[Broheim]

You mean the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System which is scheduled to be deployed by 2018?

plus Denmark is going to upgrade one or more of our air defense frigates to join the missile shield.

 

[Jaskalas]

Ukraine Rebels Indiscriminately Bomb City
New Offensive Begins

The report came a day after the rebels rejected a peace deal and said they were going on a multi-prong offensive against the government in Kiev to vastly increase their territory.

They're back...
I know that I want a NATO military build up to counter a direct Russian invasion. But under the guise of rebels, of Ukrainian-Russians attacking Ukraine, that makes it tougher to directly call for intervention.

How far do we let this go without a military response? Does Russia get to claim the eastern, ethnic-Russian territory... or do they get to go all the way to Kiev?

At some point the Russian land grab needs to be stopped.

 

[senseamp]

Putin should have stopped with Crimea, that was a quick, clean, and easy win for him.
Sometimes you just need to know when to leave the casino and cash in your chips.
Now he is gambling a lot with low chance of success, and nothing really to win. Who wants Donbas? It's like Appalachia of the Ukraine. Even Ukraine doesn't really want it, they are just afraid that if they give it up without a fight, Russia will see it as a go ahead to grab something else next. Russia doesn't really want Donbas either, they just want to create a problem area for Ukraine for supposed leverage, but reality of doing it is much messier than geopolitical theories.

 

[Jaskalas]

Russia backs "indiscriminate shelling" of cities at the UN.

Russia blocked a Western-backed U.N. Security Council statement Saturday that would have condemned indiscriminate shelling in Ukraine's southeastern city of Mariupol that killed about 30 civilians and injured more than 90.

US condemns

“I join my European counterparts in condemning in the strongest terms today's horrific assault by Russia-backed separatists on civilian neighborhoods,” Kerry said.

US threatens more sanctions on Russia.

 

[rpsgc]

Oh, lordy! More sanctions. That'll surely stop them.

 

[K1052]

Oh, lordy! More sanctions. That'll surely stop them.

There are no good alternatives and oil prices plus sanctions have run their economy into the shitter. Cut them off form SWIFT next and wait for the credit agencies to rate their gov bonds as junk.

 

[rpsgc]

There are no good alternatives and oil prices plus sanctions have run their economy into the shitter. Cut them off form SWIFT next and wait for the credit agencies to rate their gov bonds as junk.

Yes, but that won't really stop the 'rebels', now will it?


Plus, if Russia's economy really tanks, what makes you think that won't just make them even more aggressive?

 

[K1052]

Yes, but that won't really stop the 'rebels', now will it?


Plus, if Russia's economy really tanks, what makes you think that won't just make them even more aggressive?

What are the alternatives? I don't see any good ones.

Their options are limited in how much trouble they can cause for Europe outside of increased activity in Ukraine and maybe Georgia. Action against a NATO state is not realistic.

 

[rpsgc]

What are the alternatives? I don't see any good ones.

That's the problem right there. Sometimes there are no good decisions, only necessary ones.

But you want 'good' actions? How about some actual, proper sanctions? Not a slap-in-the-wrist weak pathetic sanctions. I mean sanctions worthy of the name 'sanction'. Utterly crippling sanctions.

How about seizing assets in the West from Russian oligarchs? That ought to settle the issue quickly. Too bad no one has the cojones for that.


You shouldn't try to appease bullies (or madmen) nor should you try to reason with them. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.

 

[K1052]

That's the problem right there. Sometimes there are no good decisions, only necessary ones.

But you want 'good' actions? How about some actual, proper sanctions? Not a slap-in-the-wrist weak pathetic sanctions. I mean sanctions worthy of the name 'sanction'. Utterly crippling sanctions.

How about seizing assets in the West from Russian oligarchs? That ought to settle the issue quickly. Too bad no one has the cojones for that.


You shouldn't try to appease bullies (or madmen) nor should you try to reason with them. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.

Why would you play your trump cards early in any confrontation? The US/EU can easily ratchet up the sanctions (and have been) in politically palatable ways while causing increasing distress to the Russian economy. As long as oil prices remain low (and they are forecast to for some time) the damage is compounded and accelerated. Every new provocation on the part of Russia in Ukraine just lets out more rope for them to hang themselves. The ruble is down 50% and the gov is burning through it's cash reserves to shore up companies that can't refinance debt since they've been locked out of the international markets. A river of money is pouring out of the country to anywhere it can get to.

I'm not sure what the legal basis for seizing the assets of private foreign citizens would be and even if we wanted to do so I'm fairly sure at least an act of congress would be required to execute such a policy. I am also dubious on what real effect it would have on Putin's policies.

I don't see appeasement on the part of Europe or the US. I see measured economic and political counters to an irrational belligerence.

 

[maddogchen]

sanctions need everyone involved to be on the same page. Unfortunately Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and won't follow the US in sanctioning Gazprom. Especially in winter where it needs the gas for its citizens to stay warm.

 

[K1052]

sanctions need everyone involved to be on the same page. Unfortunately Europe is too dependent on Russian gas and won't follow the US in sanctioning Gazprom. Especially in winter where it needs the gas for its citizens to stay warm.

Relatively moderate winters lately have somewhat blunted that power. Also European nations are only to aware of their reliance on politically problematic Russian gas and are working on LNG and renewable projects to shift where their energy comes from. Long term things don't look good for Russia as an energy exporter to the EU.

 

[Darwin333]

Ukraine Rebels Indiscriminately Bomb City
New Offensive Begins
They're back...
I know that I want a NATO military build up to counter a direct Russian invasion. But under the guise of rebels, of Ukrainian-Russians attacking Ukraine, that makes it tougher to directly call for intervention.

How far do we let this go without a military response? Does Russia get to claim the eastern, ethnic-Russian territory... or do they get to go all the way to Kiev?

At some point the Russian land grab needs to be stopped.

It's friggen Russia and you want to get into a shooting war with them? They would win by virtue of bankrupting us, especially since we would be in their backyard.

Russia knows this very well, why do you think they are blatantly doing what they are?

 

[realibrad]

It's friggen Russia and you want to get into a shooting war with them? They would win by virtue of bankrupting us, especially since we would be in their backyard.

Russia knows this very well, why do you think they are blatantly doing what they are?

You don't know much about the situation if you think the US is afraid of running out of money.

Research the current Russian economy, the current US economy. Then, look up who produces the most natural gas, and where that gas is mainly sold.

You will find that the US economy is far better off then the Russian economy. So even the savings that Russia would have fighting in their "backyard" would be irrelevant to who would win.

Russia wanted Crimea for its natural gas sector. Crimea and the sea around it is a benefit to sell Russian natural gas. Russia wanted to sell more to Europe, and that shipping lane would have been very profitable.

The reason the US is doing so little, is because Russia is going to bankrupt themselves. The US is dumping huge amounts of Natural gas, tanking the market. Crimea is going to be an expense because of economic sanctions and lower prices. Why in the would would the US do anything that would cost more lives and money, when they can sit back and let Europe and Russia hash it out?

 

[Jaskalas]

It's friggen Russia and you want to get into a shooting war with them?

I want Russia to know we are prepared to act - so they stop their invasion short and act with restraint.
I want a military defense to occur if Russia moves past the ethnic Russian territory in Ukraine.

I would see the West honor our pact and act in the defense of Kiev.

They would win by virtue of bankrupting us, especially since we would be in their backyard.

Europe shares this "backyard".

NATO is acting absent in the face of Russian invasion. As if the only military force on the European continent is Russia. If we are folly and maintain that this is true, then the rest of eastern Europe has a lot to worry about and can no longer count on us as Ally.

In fact, if we break our pact to defend Ukraine then no one should ever count on Western allies.

On December 5, 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Britain and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its accession to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state.

 

[Darwin333]

Why would you play your trump cards early in any confrontation? The US/EU can easily ratchet up the sanctions (and have been) in politically palatable ways while causing increasing distress to the Russian economy. As long as oil prices remain low (and they are forecast to for some time) the damage is compounded and accelerated. Every new provocation on the part of Russia in Ukraine just lets out more rope for them to hang themselves. The ruble is down 50% and the gov is burning through it's cash reserves to shore up companies that can't refinance debt since they've been locked out of the international markets. A river of money is pouring out of the country to anywhere it can get to.

I'm not sure what the legal basis for seizing the assets of private foreign citizens would be and even if we wanted to do so I'm fairly sure at least an act of congress would be required to execute such a policy. I am also dubious on what real effect it would have on Putin's policies.

I don't see appeasement on the part of Europe or the US. I see measured economic and political counters to an irrational belligerence.

A wild bear can be dangerous. A very hungry wild bear IS most definitely dangerous and liable to do things it wouldn't normally do.

I'm not so sure that backing them into a corner is going to work out as well we are hoping, I do however agree that there are no better options. I guess we are just going to hope this works and doesn't make Russia even more aggressive.

 

[K1052]

I want Russia to know we are prepared to act - so they stop their invasion short and act with restraint.
I want a military defense to occur if Russia moves past the ethnic Russian territory in Ukraine.

I would see the West honor our pact and act in the defense of Kiev.

Europe shares this "backyard".

NATO is acting absent in the face of Russian invasion. As if the only military force on the European continent is Russia. If we are folly and maintain that this is true, then the rest of eastern Europe has a lot to worry about and can no longer count on us as Ally.

In fact, if we break our pact to defend Ukraine then no one should ever count on Western allies.

I don't think there is much (if any) US or European domestic appetite for a military confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. That said even Putin isn't foolish enough to gamble that NATO would not act in the event of an article V situation with one of it's members. Beyond that I think funneling weapons/cash/intelligence to the Ukrainian government an entirely acceptable step at this juncture along with ratcheting up the sanctions another couple notches to hasten the collapse of the Russian economy.

 

[maddogchen]

Do we even have the type of weapons Ukraine needs? Maybe Poland does...

 

[realibrad]

Do we even have the type of weapons Ukraine needs? Maybe Poland does...

Why are people talking about weapons. Read my previous post. Weapons are not needed.