Russia gets Crimea

[Jaskalas]

I don't believe Russia will ever leave Crimea short of a military conflict - the naval base in Sevastopol is too important for them to give away and leave the future up to chance.

Their naval port may remain, this is about military control of Crimea. Of its people and its government. That must be rolled back to establish legitimate Crimean independence.

 

[tokie]

Oh. But Putin knows that Europe alone cannot stop him from taking and holding Ukraine. Without the US, NATO is hollow.

Silly ignant American.

UK and France together can beat Russia. Add Germany to that and it becomes domination.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I'd put it a bit differently. I'd say Putin looks like the second coming of Stalin and Obama looks like Truman who had the ability to remove Stalin and his regime from the Earth but wasn't willing to spend several million lives to do it.

I believe you have the numbers wrong. Obama is a Truman who could stop Putin at the cost of perhaps hundreds of millions of lives, and a goodly portion of those in the US.

 

[Jaskalas]

I believe you have the numbers wrong. Obama is a Truman who could stop Putin at the cost of perhaps hundreds of millions of lives, and a goodly portion of those in the US.

I think this century will prove that war may be waged on the military forces of a nuclear power, without resorting to WMDs.

 

[cubby1223]

Their naval port may remain, this is about military control of Crimea. Of its people and its government. That must be rolled back to establish legitimate Crimean independence.

I don't believe Russia will ever agree to that. It is clear by their actions they don't respect treaties and other agreements they sign. They need that base and they need control of the surrounding land. They will not trust their access to it unless they have full control over the land.

I don't believe diplomacy will ever push Russia out.

And, they probably believe they still come out ahead if the choices were sanctions and the base, or no sanctions and no base.

Crimea is Russia's until another country decides to fight with an army for the land.

 

[TROLLERCAUST]

I don't believe Russia will ever leave Crimea short of a military conflict - the naval base in Sevastopol is too important for them to give away and leave the future up to chance.

You bring up a critical point.

In 5, 10, 15,, years from now Ukraine joins the EU. Then EU and its allies have access to key military points such as that port.

Russia threw a fit over missiles in Poland? What would happen if the US moved missiles into Ukraine?

Ukraine is not joining the EU. Even if they were it would probably take closer to 20 years for them to join if they ever did. Secondly Russia had a right to use the port till 2042. If the Russians could be trusted, they could easily lease it come 2040's or they could build a port elsewhere during these 30 years, which of course they won't do or they'd lose an important weapon in pressuring Ukraine. Thirdly the EU is not a military alliance and has no need for ports like the one in Sevastopol. If EU-Ukraine controlled the port, it'd be an Ukrainian, not an EU port. The EU has no navy or military, only an army of bureaucrats.

 

[TROLLERCAUST]

It is clear by their actions they don't respect treaties and other agreements they sign.

Truer words never spoken.

/thread

 

[werepossum]

I think this century will prove that war may be waged on the military forces of a nuclear power, without resorting to WMDs.

Maybe, but that's not a wager to take lightly. Just as nations can blunder into war, they can blunder into a limited nuclear exchange. There's a balancing act here, looking strong enough to be a deterent without seeming an inevitable clash.

 

[Jaskalas]

Maybe, but that's not a wager to take lightly. Just as nations can blunder into war, they can blunder into a limited nuclear exchange. There's a balancing act here, looking strong enough to be a deterent without seeming an inevitable clash.

If they cannot invade others without resorting to WMDs, wasn't the outcome already determined? Failing to defend the west from invasion is not an option.

 

[StinkyPinky]

Oh. But Putin knows that Europe alone cannot stop him from taking and holding Ukraine. Without the US, NATO is hollow.

Um...the EU would own Russia. It wouldn't even be a contest.

 

[PingviN]

Um...the EU would own Russia. It wouldn't even be a contest.

EU has no central military command. Even if all member states have standing armed forces, they're not drilled to work together.

 

[schmuckley]

If Obama took part of Mexico, do you think Putin would have been able to do anything about it?

^This kind of puts things in perspective.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

If they cannot invade others without resorting to WMDs, wasn't the outcome already determined? Failing to defend the west from invasion is not an option.

Yes, that is the problem. If one side attacks the other there is no telling what things come to. That's what that whole "cold war" was about. I don't think any of us like it but you have to ask yourself a question and that is "Is what I want to do worth MY life and the life of those I care about". Thats why there's talk of embargo and sanctions, but war with a nuclear power? The world doesn't get to respawn.

 

[bigi]

Silly ignant American.

UK and France together can beat Russia. Add Germany to that and it becomes domination.

Really, beat Russia? How have you been able to state this as fact?

I am quite shocked that your location says Europe, and you are so ill-informed what Russia can/can't do.

 

[code65536]

Putin's always seemed so... collected. But he's acting downright irrational, methinks.

Sure, he got Crimea. But at what cost? The last time Yanukovych was ousted (Orange Revolution), the Ukrainians ended up making a mess of things and ultimately placing Yanukovych back in power. If Putin thinks that the Ukraine should be an integral part of Russia (and they do have quite a bit of shared heritage), he should be covertly sabotaging the new regime in Kiev, exploiting the divisions between the factions and letting people see the pro-Western faction fail yet again. Along the way, he could've also used this opportunity to replace Yanukovych with someone more competent. You know, doing things with a bit more finesse.

Yet, instead of acting like a former KGB officer, he loses his temper and acts like a cowboy. So he gets Crimea. And in the process, he shoves Ukraine straight into the arms of the EU/NATO. Oh, and Europe has become more united and determined to rein him in. Good job.

He's also underestimating the power of sanctions. Remember how Russia was virtually bankrupt and the economy was in shambles during the Yeltsin years? Putin took over, turned things around, and that's why he's popular. Except that the turnaround was based almost entirely on riches flowing in from the energy sector (so it wasn't really Putin's doing, but rather that of the world energy market), and Europe's his main customer. This would also hurt Europe, of course, but not nearly as much as it would hurt Russia.

 

[Texashiker]

Putin's always seemed so... collected. But he's acting downright irrational, methinks.

We do not know the whole story. And that is why we do not understand why Putin allowed this Crimea stuff to happen.

Personally, I think Ukraine was going to apply to join the EU. To ensure Russia retained control of certain naval port and military bases, Crimea is now part of Russia. If in 5 or 10 years Ukraine does join the EU. Russia will have military bases and naval ports right on the border of EU property.

This may not have anything to do with the EU. But there is some reason behind the madness.

 

[Genx87]

Those bases had leases running through 2042.

 

[Broheim]

This would also hurt Europe, of course, but not nearly as much as it would hurt Russia.

I heard in an interview that Russia is economically 15 times as dependent on the EU as the EU is on Russia, plans are in motion to get Europe off Russian gas. Russia's backroom dealing in Iran may inadvertently opened up for the EU approaching Iran with a buttload of money and removing sanctions in exchange for demands about the nuclear energy compliance and all the gas and oil they can sell. This along with with American gas that we're already building facilities for, Russia shouldn't count on the European market in the future.

We do not know the whole story. And that is why we do not understand why Putin allowed this Crimea stuff to happen.

Personally, I think Ukraine was going to apply to join the EU. To ensure Russia retained control of certain naval port and military bases, Crimea is now part of Russia. If in 5 or 10 years Ukraine does join the EU. Russia will have military bases and naval ports right on the border of EU property.

This may not have anything to do with the EU. But there is some reason behind the madness.

Russia already has a port in the Baltics and nobody gives a shit. The Black Sea fleet is even weaker than the Baltic fleet if I recall correctly. In case of war the Baltic fleet would be at the bottom of the sea in minutes.

 

[Texashiker]

Those bases had leases running through 2042.

Russia already has a port in the Baltics and nobody gives a shit. The Black Sea fleet is even weaker than the Baltic fleet if I recall correctly. In case of war the Baltic fleet would be at the bottom of the sea in minutes.

If not for the military bases then what?

There is a method to the madness. Putin is not going to risk so much to only gain so little.

 

[Genx87]

If not for the military bases then what?

There is a method to the madness. Putin is not going to risk so much to only gain so little.

The military base angle doesnt make any sense. There was a lease through 2042 they recently signed. And the Ukrainians made no mention of violating those agreements.

The guy could just be a power hungry maniac wanting to rebuild the Soviet Union.

 

[Texashiker]

The guy could just be a power hungry maniac wanting to rebuild the Soviet Union.

If that was the case why not just invade the Ukraine and take the whole nation?

Do not stop there, go ahead and take Poland and East Germany back as well.

I just do not see it.

It is not like Russia is land poor. They probably have more undeveloped land than any other nation in the world. Why take more land when you already have so much nobody is using?

 

[fskimospy]

EU has no central military command. Even if all member states have standing armed forces, they're not drilled to work together.

I think you could make a good argument that Russia's armed forces aren't drilled to work together either, haha.

Russia's army is effective against the small and weak states that directly border it. Things would not go well against a real military power in a conventional battle.

 

[Texashiker]

Russia's army is effective against the small and weak states that directly border it. Things would not go well against a real military power in a conventional battle.

You underestimate the Russian people.

Hitler did the same thing.

 

[CLite]

Russia threw a fit over anti-missiles in Poland? What would happen if the US moved anti-missiles into Ukraine?

Minor correction.....

 

[Genx87]

You underestimate the Russian people.

Hitler did the same thing.

Hitler army didnt have a vast technological edge the West holds over Russia. Also Hitlers Germany didnt have a vastly larger economy to fund their army. Hitlers army also had 1/3rd the population in which to draw troops. The combined economy of the EU + US is nearly 34 trillion dollars vs Russia's 2.6 trillion. Population wise it is 700 vs 143 million. And the one of the biggest and probably most important. Hitlers army had Hitler directing it while the West has qualified commanders.

So many differences.