Russia gets Crimea

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norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh

somewhat telling that all of those countries abstained

Also, look up UNGA votes on Israel, that country would be up the creek without US veto on the Security Council.

no problems here

how about we give isreal the west bank and then palistine gets the gaza and the southern half of isreal including the access to the red sea
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
China abstaining is good enough for Russia. The rest is just gravy.
It would cost Europe a lot more money to get off Russian gas import dependency than it would cost Russia to get off European export dependency.
Russia just needs to build a pipeline to the East. It's expensive, but nothing compared to what doubling of gas prices and updating its energy infrastructure and industries would cost Europe. It's in Russia's interest to build such a pipeline in any case, to have EU and China bid competitively for Russian gas, so it can maximize the price. Right now Europe gets gas much cheaper than China because Russian gas exports are captive to Europe due to lack of pipelines to the East.
China would love to get its hands on cheaper Russian gas, so it can burn less coal to improve its pollution situation and make its chemical industry more competitive relative to Europe and the US.
Of course, US has no such issues due to cheap shale gas, so it has leeway to act tough. But Europe needs to consider its long term relative competitiveness if instead of paying half of what China pays for gas, it pays double.
Money talks, Crimea walks.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
126
Europe can buy from those people across the ocean who have the cheapest gas prices on the planet.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,683
49,274
136
China abstaining is good enough for Russia. The rest is just gravy.
It would cost Europe a lot more money to get off Russian gas import dependency than it would cost Russia to get off European export dependency.
Russia just needs to build a pipeline to the East. It's expensive, but nothing compared to what doubling of gas prices and updating its energy infrastructure and industries would cost Europe. It's in Russia's interest to build such a pipeline in any case, to have EU and China bid competitively for Russian gas, so it can maximize the price. Right now Europe gets gas much cheaper than China because Russian gas exports are captive to Europe due to lack of pipelines to the East.
China would love to get its hands on cheaper Russian gas, so it can burn less coal to improve its pollution situation and make its chemical industry more competitive relative to Europe and the US.
Of course, US has no such issues due to cheap shale gas, so it has leeway to act tough. But Europe needs to consider its long term relative competitiveness if instead of paying half of what China pays for gas, it pays double.
Money talks, Crimea walks.

The thing is that while Europe is not in a good place to get its gas from other sources, Russia is not in a place to sell its gas to other sources right now either. You can't just throw a several thousand mile pipeline together.

Russia gets a HUGE percentage of its GDP from oil and gas sales along with much of its federal budget. Now I know that Russians have a reputation for enduring great misery, but that would be a tough sell.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
China abstaining is good enough for Russia. The rest is just gravy.
It would cost Europe a lot more money to get off Russian gas import dependency than it would cost Russia to get off European export dependency.
Russia just needs to build a pipeline to the East. It's expensive, but nothing compared to what doubling of gas prices and updating its energy infrastructure and industries would cost Europe. It's in Russia's interest to build such a pipeline in any case, to have EU and China bid competitively for Russian gas, so it can maximize the price. Right now Europe gets gas much cheaper than China because Russian gas exports are captive to Europe due to lack of pipelines to the East.
China would love to get its hands on cheaper Russian gas, so it can burn less coal to improve its pollution situation and make its chemical industry more competitive relative to Europe and the US.
Of course, US has no such issues due to cheap shale gas, so it has leeway to act tough. But Europe needs to consider its long term relative competitiveness if instead of paying half of what China pays for gas, it pays double.
Money talks, Crimea walks.

Europe also has to consider it's competitiveness in keeping and attracting new business & economic activity while under the threat of Russian invasion, or after Russian invasion.

Just because higher gas prices is a negative, doesn't mean the alternative options produce better results.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Invasion of what? The $20B per year money pit also known as Ukraine? That would be doing Europe a favor.
Russia is already jacking up Ukraine's gas price, because they know the Europeans and Americans are going to make it rain.
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
you guys have to remember that there is wide discontent in russia with putin

s/is/was/

His approval's skyrocketed, and he's clamped down even harder against dissident voices. There's nothing like a foreign adventure to drum up nationalistic sentiment and get people to ignore domestic problems.

His domestic problems are one reason people thought Putin did this.

This would probably wear off eventually, of course. But who knows how much more adventure he'll have before that happens.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
His approval's skyrocketed, and he's clamped down even harder against dissident voices. There's nothing like a foreign adventure to drum up nationalistic sentiment and get people to ignore domestic problems. His domestic problems are one reason people thought Putin did this. This would probably wear off eventually, of course. But who knows how much more adventure he'll have before that happens.

those who are discontent are probably the types that are not impressed or amused with this at all. there were massive protests during the 2012 elections
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
those who are discontent are probably the types that are not impressed or amused with this at all. there were massive protests during the 2012 elections

Which is why his approval is now at 80% and not 100%--there is still that hardcore 20% who would rejoice if tomorrow he were to be mauled to death by a bear, and those people will always be there. So what? That 80% approval's damn high, and he's got more Russians lapping his shit up than ever before.

Here's a good article about the anti-Putin faction in Russia and the challenges that they face:
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26531310

Alexei Sokirko found a place on the pavement on Nikolskaya Street and unfolded his "Stop the war" banner.

Russian law allows one-man pickets to be staged without prior permission or advance notification so the police didn't do anything at first. In fact, they didn't need to as Alexei immediately started getting harassed by angry passers-by. To begin with they called him "fascist" and "scum". Then a woman spat at him. A few men started threatening him, and finally one of them snatched the banner from his hands and tore it up.

A scuffle followed - that was when the police intervened to arrest Alexei for violating public order. It was probably just as well, as he could have been seriously beaten. A woman then offered to fabricate a more serious charge against him. "I can testify that he was beating up a child," she suggested, enthusiastically. The policemen decided not to take her up on it.

This is the effect of good propaganda: You don't need the state apparatus to silence your opposition when your own brainwashed citizenry will do it for you.
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
This is the effect of good propaganda: You don't need the state apparatus to silence your opposition when your own brainwashed citizenry will do it for you.

many of them know what is going on

they feel no remorse doing any of those things and their psycology rewards them for it

like someone said before russians are probably more like americans than europeans. and they have both a victim and martyr personality. as one can see in both crimea and russia sometimes the soldiers and policemen have more of a soul than the citizens of russia themselves. it was not the soldiers in crimea who were attacking vice but the russian protesters themselves

they feel like they are both hardcore bad and righteously good and that they are surperior to any other ethnicity or race or nationality
 

Agent11

Diamond Member
Jan 22, 2006
3,535
1
0
many of them know what is going on

they feel no remorse doing any of those things and their psycology rewards them for it

like someone said before russians are probably more like americans than europeans. and they have both a victim and martyr personality. as one can see in both crimea and russia sometimes the soldiers and policemen have more of a soul than the citizens of russia themselves. it was not the soldiers in crimea who were attacking vice but the russian protesters themselves

they feel like they are both hardcore bad and righteously good and that they are surperior to any other ethnicity or race or nationality

That is an interesting perspective.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Invasion of what? The $20B per year money pit also known as Ukraine? That would be doing Europe a favor.
Russia is already jacking up Ukraine's gas price, because they know the Europeans and Americans are going to make it rain.

Then I'll also throw in another perspective - Russian invasion of Ukraine, or just general instability in Ukraine causes global food prices to rise.

Either natural gas prices rise in Europe or food prices rise.
 

WTSherman

Member
May 18, 2013
91
0
0
Um, shouldn't the country in question decide which sphere of influence they want to be in? Instead of other countries deciding for them?

If, hypothetically, Russia should consider Finland to be in their sphere of influence (after all, Finland was once a part of the Russian empire before it won its independence), should we just stand by if Russia wants to dominate Finland against their will?

We're not forcing Ukraine away from Russia (if anything, Russia's belligerence is forcing Ukraine into our arms). Despite what the Russian propaganda may claim, the Ukrainian protestors who overthrew Yanukovych are not secret American agents. We're not forcing Ukraine to enter our sphere of influence. They don't want to be a Russian puppet. They asked for Western aid. Shouldn't their wishes count for something?

(On that note, I think Crimea belongs with Russia, and I'm fine with Russia taking Crimea, because that's what the Crimeans want. My beef with the Crimean takeover is the bullyish way in which Russia did it--sending in troops, shutting down opposition media, running propaganda campaigns claiming that Ukrainians are Nazis, etc.)

This does seem to open a pandora's box. Why shouldn't any small state be able to join their neighboring nation if they vote in favor of secession? Maybe Michigan citizens vote to become Canadian because they don't agree with the federal government.

My concern is that the US is not socially able to conduct war at this time, so I take a generally isolationist attitude. If we have competent leaders my attitude would change.

I'm offended by Russia's moves, and I smell a rat with Putin. The Ukraine is geographically in Europe's and Russia's sphere of interest, don't expect the US to manage your affairs!
 

code65536

Golden Member
Mar 7, 2006
1,006
0
76
This does seem to open a pandora's box. Why shouldn't any small state be able to join their neighboring nation if they vote in favor of secession? Maybe Michigan citizens vote to become Canadian because they don't agree with the federal government.
Secession isn't a new box, though. Look at Scotland's upcoming vote on whether to leave the UK. Or Quebec's seemingly frequent votes to leave Canada.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
This does seem to open a pandora's box. Why shouldn't any small state be able to join their neighboring nation if they vote in favor of secession? Maybe Michigan citizens vote to become Canadian because they don't agree with the federal government.

It's not so simple.

Obviously we can all agree that Canada should not be allowed annex Michigan on the grounds that Canadian media claims the people of Michigan want to join Canada.

Conversely the U.S. could make claims that Quebec wants to be a part of the U.S., we send troops into Quebec when the Canadian government is not looking, put in place a puppet government and hold a vote that may or may not be tallied fairly... and all of a sudden Quebec is a part of the U.S.!!!

We agree not to do these things because it causes chaos amongst borders.

My concern is that the US is not socially able to conduct war at this time,
I think the U.S. will be if war becomes a necessity.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
This is the effect of good propaganda: You don't need the state apparatus to silence your opposition when your own brainwashed citizenry will do it for you.

USA! USA! USA! USA! USA!

Maybe that's different.... probably not.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
The pressing concern is with the Ukraine itself and Russia massing troops on its border.

I think the Obama admin should strongly consider supplying arms to the Ukraine. I don't understand why we can do so to shady militia groups in Arab countries but not the Ukraine. I don't think there is any possibility such arms could ever find their way to radical Islamic jihadists or that the Ukraine will use them against a neighbor (other than Russia if it attacks).

The real point would not be to help the Ukraine defeat Russia, but to change the calculus so that Russia wouldn't invade in the first place.

I've heard that the Ukraine asked for arms, but the Obama admin gave them only MRE's instead.

----------------------

Angela Merkel has said that Putin is out of touch with reality and "in another world". I don't believe she said this lightly. I think the recent reporting of Putin's and Obama's phone call underscores this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-different-recollections-of-obama-putin-call/

Putin's claim that that ethnic Russians in the Ukraine are subjected to a "continued rampage of extremists" is, IMO, particularly concerning. Likewise with his claims about Transnistria.

If Putin sincerely believes that, and there is every reason to suggest he does, he likely feels he has justification to invade. It's exactly what he claimed to justify the Crimea invasion.

I hope the Obama admin is able to keep Russia/Putin out of the Ukraine etc, because otherwise an invasion may well lead to war with us and Europe involved. I don't think the threat of sanctions is going to be sufficient; the Obama admin has a lot of responsibility at the moment.

Fern
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I don't think Russia is going to invade continental Ukraine. But Putin wants to give Obama an off ramp and a way to save face over Crimea. Putin knows that he can't just take Crimea and not throw Obama a bone. So he is going to mass all these troops on the border and appear like he is planning to invade and then he'll draw them down and Obama can go around saying, see, our response worked, it deterred Russia from invading Ukraine. And Putin can look like a reasonable guy because he didn't do something crazy that he wasn't going to do anyways. A win win for everyone involved.
 
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