Russia halting offensive operations?

[kage69]

It seems Putin sees his window and is going to use it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/15/world/middleeast/putin-syria-russia-withdrawal.html?_r=0

“I believe, that the tasks put before the defense ministry have been completed over all,” Mr. Putin told Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov at a meeting in the Kremlin on Monday evening. “Because of this, I have ordered that from tomorrow the main part of our military groups will begin their withdrawal from the Syrian Arab Republic.”



Quite the development, but not an exactly unexpected one. Russia is back to being broke, and conducting operations and maintaining garrisons costs a lot of money. The bases aren't going anywhere, but it looks as if the risks involved with Russian jets might be dropping for everyone.

Rebels and such have been able to hang out in Turkey and Jordan lately, regroup, resupply, train. I expect they will enter the fray en masse relatively soon in the hopes of keeping pressure on Assad.

What say you?

 

[sunzt]

I wonder if he'll come back if Assad starts losing again.

Or maybe.....

He's not really pulling out at all and it's just a ploy.....

 

[kage69]

I think Putin is tired of spending money on Assad, and is ready to consolidate and refocus his military on getting ready for the coming push back from Ukraine. He's put NATO countries under more strain via refugees, Iran and Co. will remain present in the conflict, and he now has a relationship with a battle tested proxy (Kurds) that will prove useful wrt Turkey.

Time to pull back the guns and ready them for a fight closer to home. The Ukrainians are going to be trying to take back rebel held regions soon, and they've stated Crimea is included on the list.

Watch Putin jump at the opportunity to support a Kurdish state, just to give Turkey another big F U. Could probably get a base or two out of it.

 

[Indus]

OMFG could it be that Russia would overstretch itself and we don't need to bomb like Obama said?

What are the odds of that?

 

[Screech]

plenty of russian air support is from bases elsewhere so this might not really change a whole lot of stuff on the ground in syria in the short term.

 

[Jhhnn]

If the Assad govt was so terrible, why are there millions of refugees now & not then?

 

[kage69]

If the Assad govt was so terrible, why are there millions of refugees now & not then?

Because infantry without an air force melts under indiscriminate high-altitude bombing? I imagine fighting ISIS is one thing, being stuck in the kill box with ISIS is quite another.

 

[Sonikku]

Ha ha, warhawk bonehead was spending all his money on his military and wars in the middle east and now he's broke and his economy is tanking!












:hmm:

 

[Jhhnn]

Because infantry without an air force melts under indiscriminate high-altitude bombing? I imagine fighting ISIS is one thing, being stuck in the kill box with ISIS is quite another.

That doesn't really answer the question.

 

[Victorian Gray]

If the Assad govt was so terrible, why are there millions of refugees now & not then?

If you think the population displacement in Syria began when Putin showed up, you're wrong.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868

 

[Ventanni]

There's something else at play here. Putin isn't done in Syria. They might have stopped firing at each other, but the rebels are still a functional, albeit heavily bruised fighting force. And last time I checked, without Russian air power the regime was losing. This is about Ukraine and the coming Ukrainian offensive.

 

[senseamp]

Now that oil prices have started going up again, at least temporarily, Putin doesn't need a war so much, when they start going down, he'll come up with some other crazy adventure. Putin needs nonstop distractions for his people from economy that's hopelessly in the toilet. It doesn't really matter too much what it is. Excitement and patriotism of starting a war, relief and humanity of ending one, playing on global arena, opposing the West, cooperating with the West, bargaining with the West, China, Zimbabwe, North Korea, Kuba, etc. Anything will do that will portray Putin as a global player and focus the people away from the moribund economy and "Leviathan" style corruption. It's always some stupid shit outside that Russians are supposed to care more about than their own well being.

 

[Jaskalas]

That was a very expensive way to lose economic ties and relationships with Turkey.
Granted... the way Turkey is headed it'll be an Afghani style ruin in another 10-20 years. So maybe no real losses there.

 

[senseamp]

That was a very expensive way to lose economic ties and relationships with Turkey.
Granted... the way Turkey is headed it'll be an Afghani style ruin in another 10-20 years. So maybe no real losses there.

When two street thugs are in same neighborhood, inevitably there will be a fight. The dangerous thing is that Turkey is part of NATO, so we could be dragged into their pissing match.

 

[maddogchen]

the costs were low for Russia in Syria. And Ukraine is a ground war so the air force isn't needed.

This is about Russia being able to set small achievable goals and completing them. Its a good time for them to declare a win and go home. It doesn't matter that they made a mess in Ukraine, they got Crimea. It doesn't matter that Syria is still a disaster zone, they saved their ally for now.

 

[senseamp]

the costs were low for Russia in Syria. And Ukraine is a ground war so the air force isn't needed.

This is about Russia being able to set small achievable goals and completing them. Its a good time for them to declare a win and go home. It doesn't matter that they made a mess in Ukraine, they got Crimea. It doesn't matter that Syria is still a disaster zone, they saved their ally for now.

I think also if they stopped with Crimea in Ukraine and didn't start a mess in DonBas, they would be in much better shape. Maybe they are learning to not bite off more than they can chew.

 

[Jaskalas]

Reports of hospital safety may be premature.

Russia 'to continue air strikes' after withdrawal
​

 

[senseamp]

Oh noes, "moderate" terrorists will have their style crimped a little longer.