Russia invades the Ukraine?

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
Wow.

You seem to have one helluva point:



At first glance it appears we're treaty bound to defend the Ukraine.

Fern

Without looking over the whole agreement one thing for sure is that Ukraine would have to ask for this to be invoked.
 

Ventanni

Golden Member
Jul 25, 2011
1,432
142
106
What's the status of the Ukrainian military with the formation of their new government? If Russian just sticks to Crimea, then I doubt much will happen. The Crimea is already home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and isn't the area predominantly pro-Russian anyways? Despite the illegality of the move, it seems pretty win-win for Putin.

If Russian overreaches into the Ukrainian mainland, then this'll get ugly for sure.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
Wow.

You seem to have one helluva point:



At first glance it appears we're treaty bound to defend the Ukraine.

Fern

I read more about this. First, it wasn't a treaty. Second, there is no positive duty to defend the ukraine's territorial integrity.

So in short, we are in no way treaty bound to defend the Ukraine. This doesn't mean that we don't need to take action to control Russian aggression, but there are no specific treaty requirements for how we go about this.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
The agreement is certainly causing some interesting remarks:

Sir Tony Brenton, who served as British Ambassador from 2004 to 2008, said that war could be an option 'if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum is legally binding.'

It promises to protect Ukraine's borders, in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons.

Kiev has demanded the agreement is activated after insisting their borders had been violated.

In response Mr Brenton said in a BBC radio interview: 'If indeed this is a Russian invasion of Crimea and if we do conclude the [Budapest] Memorandum is legally binding then it's very difficult to avoid the conclusion that we're going to go to war with Russia'.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-difficult-avoid-going-war.html#ixzz2ul1GRraa

Fern
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,501
136
The agreement is certainly causing some interesting remarks:



Fern

Ah, I had not heard that Ukraine had invoked it. Since it was not an official treaty however, I find it highly unlikely that the west finds it legally binding. (Conveniently)
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,681
7,180
136
Putin is looking at China and how that dragon is growing stronger every day and I bet he wishes to somehow attain/maintain parity with that nation and the USA on the strength of his own ego and nothing much else. Perceiving that their influence on the world stage let alone on their own borders is weakening while China is ever growing via its burgeoning economic engine I can't help but think Putin and Russians in general feel they must either strengthen themselves or weaken its potential enemies to protect their own existence and/or to become the fearsome bear it was in its glory days.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Ah, I had not heard that Ukraine had invoked it. Since it was not an official treaty however, I find it highly unlikely that the west finds it legally binding. (Conveniently)

LOL. I bet you're right about that.

Fern
 

Sonikku

Lifer
Jun 23, 2005
15,752
4,562
136
This is going to be quite the debacle for McCain. On the one hand, authorizing action could mean kicking off a new war. On the other, it would mean supporting Obama. :hmm:
 

norseamd

Lifer
Dec 13, 2013
13,990
180
106
Putin is looking at China and how that dragon is growing stronger every day and I bet he wishes to somehow attain/maintain parity with that nation and the USA on the strength of his own ego and nothing much else. Perceiving that their influence on the world stage let alone on their own borders is weakening while China is ever growing via its burgeoning economic engine I can't help but think Putin and Russians in general feel they must either strengthen themselves or weaken its potential enemies to protect their own existence and/or to become the fearsome bear it was in its glory days.

putin seems to decide on his ego and not his intellect more and more. looking like putin might be doing this pure out of his own ego because loss of pride because of this happening during the olympics.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Stumbled upon a somewhat interesting article about Putin. It's from the British Spectator magazine, which appears to be different/separate from the American publication of the same name:

Apparently Putin fancies himself as a cultural warrior and wants to lead the world, or the parts he can, as an ideological force for social conservatism. He looks like he's going to be a problem in many ways and for a long while.

In his annual state of the nation speech to Russia’s parliament in December, Vladimir Putin assured conservatives around the world that Russia was ready and willing to stand up for ‘family values’ against a tide of liberal, western, pro-gay propaganda ‘that asks us to accept without question the equality of good and evil’. Russia, he promised, will ‘defend traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years’. Crucially, Putin made it clear that his message was directed not only at Russians — who have already been protected from ‘promotion of non-traditional relationships’ by recent legislation — but for ‘more and more people across the world who support our position’.

The forces against the government in Kiev tend to be aligned with the EU and modern ‘democratic values’, including gay rights; whereas government supporters tend to be more Russophile and their banners include ones that say ‘EURO = HOMO’. These are precisely the battle lines on which Putin has raised his conservative ideological standard.

Last November, when it looked like the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was close to signing an Association Agreement with the European Union, billboards appeared across the country warning that the ‘EU means legalising same-sex marriage’.

Conservative values, international diplomacy, the architecture of the internet: apparently diverse areas where Russia is exercising international influence. They are all united by a common theme, the same one that is trumpeted very plainly by the Sochi Games: Russia is back as a major global player, and doesn’t care how much it costs to show it.

He also has ambitions on controlling the internet:

There’s a third plank to Russia’s ambitious programme to shape the world in its image: an ongoing campaign to redesign the global architecture of the internet to allow more control by individual states.

Last November a delegation of Russian senators and Foreign Ministry officials paid an official visit to the US to complain to American service providers for failing to guarantee user privacy. They also renewed demands to reform ICANN. A logical enough demand, on the face of it, after Snowden’s revelations revealed deeply flawed oversight systems over America’s spies. But the problem with dismantling ICANN is that it could lead to an increase in the control allowed to individual states not only over their own internet space — which they have already — but over the entire world wide web.

The issue of who controls the internet will be debated at a major international conference next year, the biggest such confab since 2005. Strategically, Russia has clearly set its sights on two goals: wresting control of the internet away from the US, and creating a new definition of ‘cyber-terrorism’ that’s as loose as its own legislation on ‘extremism’, which has recently been used to prosecute eco-activists, peaceful protestors, independent media outlets and gay activists.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9142182/putins-masterplan/

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
This is going to be quite the debacle for McCain. On the one hand, authorizing action could mean kicking off a new war. On the other, it would mean supporting Obama. :hmm:

He's already spoken and doesn't advocate any military conflict with Russia:

In response to reports of a Russian takeover in parts of Crimea, Arizona Senator John McCain said on Friday, “We are all Ukrainians,” before calling for swift U.S. economic aid to Ukraine, condemnation of Russia at the United Nations, sanctions against Russian officials and the installation of U.S. missiles in the nearby Czech Republic.

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes “this is a chess match reminiscent of the Cold War and we need to realize that and act accordingly,” McCain said, in an exclusive interview with TIME. “That does not mean I envision a conflict with Russia, but we need to take certain measures that would convince Putin that there is a very high cost to actions that he is taking now.”

Read more: John McCain Says We Are All Ukrainians, Takes On Putin | TIME.com http://swampland.time.com/2014/02/28/ukraine-john-mccain-putin-crimea/#ixzz2ulGA1PwG

Fern
 

KK

Lifer
Jan 2, 2001
15,903
4
81
Obama tells him not to, what the fuck does that dumb shit think Putin is going to do. I mean really, does Obama think that he has any say in what Putin is going to do. What will be funny is how the dumb fuck responds.
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,077
136
Obama tells him not to, what the fuck does that dumb shit think Putin is going to do. I mean really, does Obama think that he has any say in what Putin is going to do. What will be funny is how the dumb fuck responds.

Are you on meds? Do you need to be?
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,432
7,356
136
Obama tells him not to, what the fuck does that dumb shit think Putin is going to do. I mean really, does Obama think that he has any say in what Putin is going to do. What will be funny is how the dumb fuck responds.

What do you propose we do? Keep quiet?

Of course we're going to express public disapproval at the unilateral actions of Russia that violate the sovereignty of the Ukraine. I'm not sure what more we would do in this situation. There might be economic actions we take or under-the-table intelligence sharing, but I doubt we're going to go to bat militarily in an overt fashion.
 

brandonb

Diamond Member
Oct 17, 2006
3,731
2
0
Putin has already calculated weeks ago all possible options and was ok with the outcome of all avenues prior to his invasion of the Ukraine. This is a chess game, and he just moved up his piece and knows the other players don't have a response to it. Nothing will happen, Putin knows it, Obama knows it, and so does the rest of the world. Sorry this is just politics at this point, and how strong we wish to look (but not follow up with action of course.)
 

schmuckley

Platinum Member
Aug 18, 2011
2,335
1
0
Well..If the people of Ukraine don't like Rissia invading;I say US should open the borders.
My uncle came from Ukraine, when the Nazis were rolling through there.he fled.
If the people don't like it;eh ..I just hope it's not an excuse for Obama to start ww3
 

_Rick_

Diamond Member
Apr 20, 2012
3,937
69
91
Economic reactions need to be swift, as military reactions are out of question. Seize assets of Russian nationals in countries that signed the Budapest convention and their allies. Put import and export embargoes on Russia. Penalize any country maintaining economic ties with Russia. It needs to be demonstrated that such barbarism will not stand.
Put allied states with borders with Russia on military alert.

If the answer to this invasion is insufficient, who knows where Putin will take this. A full scale war only becomes more likely with a weak response from the West.
And disregarding the Budapest convention would set a very bad nonproliferation example...
 

Newbian

Lifer
Aug 24, 2008
24,782
845
126
Good... lets get out of the desert and fight the evil commies once again.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
The problem and I say that truthfully, because that is the way the world thinks, is that the Ukraine as a country has literally nothing of value (I am not talking about human lives) to offer anybody. Thus no ww3.....it really is that simple. If we let politics be our guide we could almost say that the Ukraine was a pawn of the west, used to poke the bear.... Well pawns have a way falling......there is nothing anybody is going to do militarily to stop Russia. Not even the Ukrainian people can do anything -- unless they want a blood bath -- the peoples blood! <-- fact!

Nonsense. Russia wants Ukraine for its resources and access to resources, same as the EU. If Ukraine was some sub-Saharan African nation then no one would care.

From Britannica :

"Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. Rich iron ore reserves located in the vicinity of Kryvyy Rih, Kremenchuk, Bilozerka, Mariupol, and Kerch form the basis of Ukraine’s large iron-and-steel industry. One of the richest areas of manganese-bearing ores in the world is located near Nikopol. Bituminous and anthracite coal used for coke are mined in the Donets Basin. Energy for thermal power stations is obtained using the large reserves of brown coal found in the Dnieper River basin (north of Kryvyy Rih) and the bituminous coal deposits of the Lviv-Volyn basin. The coal mines of Ukraine are among the deepest in Europe. "

"The country’s heavy industries produce trucks, other automobiles, railway locomotives and freight cars, seagoing vessels, hydroelectric and thermal steam and gas turbines, and electric generators. In addition, residential and industrial construction demands hoisting and transportation equipment and other machinery for the building trades. Dozens of factories, found chiefly in Kharkiv, Odessa, Lviv, and Kherson, produce a wide range of agricultural equipment as well."
 

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,441
86
91
Look, Obama warned Putin. Russia will back off or Putin may end up like Assad.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
we just need to double down on isolationism and appeasement. Whats the worst that could happen.
you must really be an idiot if you honestly believe that we can change the outcome of this by committing troops, especially in Russia`s own backyard......
Instead of making idiotic statements about isolationism explain what we could to affect the outcome.

That would be like us invading Mexico and Russia throwing troops into the region -- they would stand no chance!
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
If Russian overreaches into the Ukrainian mainland, then this'll get ugly for sure.
It will only get ugly for the people living there. Unless the world confront Russia with overwhelming and I mean overwhelming force and with the complete understanding that people will die on both sides...then nothing will happen!
 
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