Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,759
980
126
We aren't sitting idly by. We made contact with the UA in 2014 and, along with the Brits, started to improve their training. We've shipped well over a $100B dollars in lethal aid to Ukraine (hmm, need to find a summary). Our NATO allies have pretty much matched that as a whole, plus taking in the many refuges. At the start of the war, NATO wasn't united. Biden didn't want to commit to fighting in Europe without the rest of Europe on board. We also massively underestimated the RA's competence - and hesitated to act because of the that intelligence failure.

So here we are. Yes, if we wanted to make sure Ukraine won, we have the tools to do it. Between the NATO allies, the decision is to not move that aggressively. It seems the consensus is that we have given Ukraine a sufficient number of advanced weapons, plus training for something like 60K troops out of country, that they should be able to conduct a major, successful summer campaign. If the UA can't do so, the calculus may change.

I certainly am distressed over the casualties and destruction this war has wrought on the Ukrainian people and their country. But, geopolitics is a game played standing on a knife's sharp edge. Better this than 'guns blazing' approach of Bush.
Personally I thank we should make clear to Russia that each time they explicitly target civilian structures, like last week, we will increase the technology curve of weapons we provide starting with longer range rockets and then advance fighter jets.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,759
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I doubt they are quite running out, and there are still probably stocks in former warsaw pact nations that are being transferred to Ukraine. I bet they'll keep enough S300 and Buk to fire at planes no matter what, but shooting down cruise missiles may no longer be practical.
Aren't they suppose to use the newly supplied patriot systems to shoot down cruise missles ?
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Problems in the Kremlin. Two interesting posts by Igor;


Hmm, politicking never ends, even in war. From ISW:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Apr 29, 2023 - Press ISW

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to the Wagner mercenaries. Prigozhin stated in an interview with a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger on April 29 that the Wagner mercenaries will continue to fight in Bakhmut but will need to “withdraw in an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation does immediately not improve. Prigozhin stated that Wagner needs about 80,000 shells per day — its previous shell allowance prior to apparent Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) efforts to reduce Wagner’s influence. Prigozhin added that Wagner is only receiving 800 of the 4,000 shells per day that it is currently requesting. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and Deputy Commander of Russian Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin developed a plan to “grind” the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut that deprived Ukraine of its initiative on the battlefield. Prigozhin’s mention of Surovikin is likely an attempt to publicly affiliate with Surovikin as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor is shifting away from Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s network. Prigozhin is likely attempting to regain access to more ammunition as Putin is once again reshuffling the Russian military leadership in a way that may favor Prigozhin.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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If this is true; and I'm always skeptical about such rumours; wouldn't Prigozhin turn his forces on the kremlin ?

Hmmm... but Wagner was the only ones actually making a little bit of progress right? They just gonna shit it away? I smell a trap.
We are nearing the endgame of this shindig. The next big push by Ukraine may tip the scales into a short term political chaos inside Russia and possibly end the war.

I'm not even sure of the veracity of Igor's posts, but from my lay person perspective I would have thought its the type of signals you would get from a highly stressed political system.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
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Aren't they suppose to use the newly supplied patriot systems to shoot down cruise missles ?

Yes, Patriot should be able to even intercept Iskander and some of the most advanced cruise missiles. Patriot missiles are expensive tho, and in what number they’re supplied I have no idea.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,007
2,277
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Yes, Patriot should be able to even intercept Iskander and some of the most advanced cruise missiles. Patriot missiles are expensive tho, and in what number they’re supplied I have no idea.
Something the Russians are aware of and can deploy decoy missiles to confuse or overwhelm Uke defenses.
 
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Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,037
4,800
136
Once Ukraine retakes all of their territory they should pound the adjacent russian territories turning them into a wasteland just like what Putin tried to do to them thus creating an orc free buffer zone along the border.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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Probably murder someone. They’re impotent militarily against NATO but still quite capable of espionage and killing.
No., My understanding of the situation is that russia had more or less 'illegally' annexed a building next to their embassy, claimed it part of their embassy and turned it into some sort of school. This was ok with poland when they were on ok terms but now that terms are not so good they reclaimed the building Russia had no rights to access.

Russia of course rejects that; they will probably escalate by claiming one of Poland's embassy (a big no no) in russia or less harmful and more 'legal' ejecting some of polands embassy workers.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,042
38,539
136
Suck a bag of d’s Kremlin


And then another one. Tf you gonna do about it you impotent fucks.

The people currently slaughtering civilians and stealing children want the rest of the world to buy this outrage over a school. Hilarious. Lodge that up your ass Lavrov.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,698
5,432
136
Russia of course rejects that; they will probably escalate by claiming one of Poland's embassy (a big no no) in russia or less harmful and more 'legal' ejecting some of polands embassy workers.
If I recall correctly, the main embassy is sovereign territory?


Of course, sometimes extensions and so on are not, it gets complicated.


If the Russian's ham it up though, article 5 here we come.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,859
34,806
136
I doubt they are quite running out, and there are still probably stocks in former warsaw pact nations that are being transferred to Ukraine. I bet they'll keep enough S300 and Buk to fire at planes no matter what, but shooting down cruise missiles may no longer be practical.

Ukraine has received 4 Patriot systems, 2 NASAMS (of 6), 2 IRIS/T SLM (of 4), IRIS/T SL launchers, and soon SAMP-T/HAWK/ASPIDE. The increasing arrival of western systems will take pressure off dwindling stocks of soviet pattern missiles. RIM-7 is also being fitted to the Buks.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,859
34,806
136
Yes, Patriot should be able to even intercept Iskander and some of the most advanced cruise missiles. Patriot missiles are expensive tho, and in what number they’re supplied I have no idea.

Reportedly Ukraine has been given a healthy initial supply (upwards of a hundred total) of PAC-2 Gem+ and PAC-3 missiles for the Patriots.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,698
5,432
136
Reportedly Ukraine has been given a healthy initial supply (upwards of a hundred total) of PAC-2 Gem+ and PAC-3 missiles for the Patriots.
I have a conspiracy theory based purely on fantasy and rainbow unicorns the patriots are their in case Russia tosses something that looks like a nuke. Shooting down other stuff yes, but mainly to stop a nuke.


One of the things the leaks showed is US intel seems to have penetrated the Russian military security everywhere, and if the US was able to get foreknowledge of a nuke launch, odds are one of those patriots could drop it before we are left with ugly choices.

An intercept would scatter radioactive material across the countryside. Undeniable evidence that A. Russia attempted to nuke its neighbor and B. It failed. Instant pariah state status + pathetic joke punchline status without forcing the USA or anyone else into a military response.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,574
7,637
136
Can we please not advocate war crimes?
Missiles should be met with missiles.
Pound for pound is called a deterrence. It is the best defense and ultimately how you bring an opponent to the negotiating table for peace. When they reach a level of pain they can no longer sustain. Until then, Russia will not stop. Russia must be made to stop. Through retaliation.
 
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