Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[igor_kavinski]

and now it is 3 Russian helicopters, 2 Russian two jets all of which appear to be downed from Russian "friendly" fire today!

It is raining Russian aircraft!

And these bozos want control over entire Europe, offering them their "protection".

 

[Leeea]

And these bozos want control over entire Europe, offering them their "protection".

Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.


I am not sure what four and five are. Making it obvious to every private conscriptovich in the area he is about to get on a one way helicopter ride?

This is not trigger happy air defense operators. Something entirely more devious is going on.


I guess we will see how long it will take Russian command to react to the new reality in the sky. Also curious if the Russian's will be able to counter this, how effective it is, what percentage of flights get intercepted, etc.


Could be something "simple", like the Ukrainians are somehow painting these aircraft with a Ukrainian IFF code and the Russian SAM site operators are just responding to that and opening fire.

 

[kage69]

I’m pretty sure he sued someone in the UK for saying he ran Wagner.

I hope I’m not huffing too much hopium but it looks like we might be seeing another Russian collapse. Fingers crossed!

Russians with money sure love those British libel laws, it wouldn't surprise me. Or you mean the guy at Bellingcat? He got money doing it in Russia I know.

Yeah I like what I'm seeing. Look at the north side of Bakhmut; the other night Ukrainians reversed roughly 2.5 months of Russian gains in about 6-8 hours. The chef was calling it a rout I believe.

 

[K1052]

Nice piece of kit. 370 km range. 450kg warhead. Low observable. Uh, $1.3M US - don’t think we’ll be parting with many of those, however.

Storm Shadow is even more expensive, almost 2M iirc. For stand-off range munitions the 158 is relatively cheap.

 

[Ajay]

Storm Shadow is even more expensive, almost 2M iirc. For stand-off range munitions the 158 is relatively cheap.

Still seems expensive, but I’m sure MIC system we have with few general contractors does nothing to reduce costs.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Could be something "simple", like the Ukrainians are somehow painting these aircraft with a Ukrainian IFF code and the Russian SAM site operators are just responding to that and opening fire.

That sounds like something the Rebel Alliance would do against the Imperials

 

[kage69]

We should be giving them AGM-158s too. Now that Lockheed has the 2nd line open less concern about running down the stockpile.

Absolutely. JDAMs only go so far, they need the high end 1000/2000 pounders too. The EW CHAMP payload in particular could really make the Russians weep. I can see the Ukrainians frying Russian shit all along a wide front right before an assault.

JASSM is really good value per unit too, like Harpoons. This taxpayer approves.

 

[K1052]

Still seems expensive, but I’m sure MIC system we have with few general contractors does nothing to reduce costs.

Think of it this way: whatever it’s headed to blow up is likely way way more valuable/expensive for the Russians.

 

[kage69]

Yeah.

Using whatever metric you so desire, try to put a price tag on say a command center loaded with critical communication equipment, specialized personnel, maybe a few majors and colonels. Every time I try I arrive at a number that is much larger than then cost of a JASSM. Then I factor in all the Ukrainians those people won't kill. The Kerch? The value for Russians transiting the bridge in a day or less likely exceeds the cost of several StormShadows.

That's the best kind of purchase, one where there is no doubt you and yours make out like bandits. More please.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Think of it this way: whatever it’s headed to blow up is likely way way more valuable/expensive for the Russians.

Yup, these aren't mortars being flung at ditches full of conscripts. These are high power weapons evading defensive measures to create fulcrums to pry open enemy fortifications. A mil or two per shot is nothing.

 

[Racan]

Lethal combo, but it also shows the challenge of operating UAVs under the Russian electronic warfare environment.

 

[RnR_au]

This is not trigger happy air defense operators. Something entirely more devious is going on.

Nah mate, its simple.

A Storm Shadow missile got through. Putin rips into the nearest General and they rip into air defense commander. Air defense ground staff gets ripped and flips on all the switches and turns all the dials to 11.

Noone tells the Russian airforce, or even thinks about them.

The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing, and the blame game is literally deadly.

 

[RnR_au]

Oh noes...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657468388506238976

A real head ache for Putin if he dies.

 

[you2]

Oh noes...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657468388506238976

A real head ache for Putin if he dies.

Why? they would simply annex the entire country.

 

[UNCjigga]

Why? they would simply annex the entire country.

…with WHAT army??

 

[Indus]

…with WHAT army??

I'm sure they can recruit Braznor and Young Grasshopper

 

[RnR_au]

…with WHAT army??

Yeah at this point, the Belarusian army is in a better state than the Russian.

 

[Jaskalas]

Photos of the smouldering ruins of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657481589885128705

 

[Artorias]

Russia has had a reserve force in Belarus for several months.

Do not be surprised if Russia has slowly over the past few months put people in place loyal to Putin to counter Ukraine's summer offensive, a push from the North with Belarus joining the war as a puppet is a problem.

This is a war of attrition, I don't think it ends without some involvement by Belorussia.

 

[RnR_au]

Further advance to the South of Bakhmut;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657642861305683968

edit: hmm... my twitter link is not coming up automatically. Should be above this line according to the BB code.

 

[K1052]

Russia has had a reserve force in Belarus for several months.

Do not be surprised if Russia has slowly over the past few months put people in place loyal to Putin to counter Ukraine's summer offensive, a push from the North with Belarus joining the war as a puppet is a problem.

This is a war of attrition, I don't think it ends without some involvement by Belorussia.

Belarus has one of the the worst armies in Europe. Its involvement in the conflict now would be a burden not a help to the Russians who are struggling to defend the existing front inside Ukraine. Russia also no longer has the resources to garrison the country if it became required.

 

[Perknose]

Russia has had a reserve force in Belarus for several months.

Do not be surprised if Russia has slowly over the past few months put people in place loyal to Putin to counter Ukraine's summer offensive, a push from the North with Belarus joining the war as a puppet is a problem.

This is a war of attrition, I don't think it ends without some involvement by Belorussia.

^^^ Both my fear and my prediction.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Belarus has one of the the worst armies in Europe. Its involvement in the conflict now would be a burden not a help to the Russians who are struggling to defend the existing front inside Ukraine. Russia also no longer has the resources to garrison the country if it became required.

Yeah. Plus, if they send their army into Ukraine, that leaves their despots vulnerable at home. That's the reason we never saw that Belarusian front materialize even though it was actively threatened early on. I think once Belarus saw Ukraine holding their own and then saw the international community queuing up aid, Belarus as an actual threat died. Further, what do you think the rest of Europe/US will do if Belarus joins the fight? That'll galvanize more support internationally, especially since Poland will be making a big fuss then. Frankly, if Belarus rolls their army into Ukraine I'm not sure if Poland wouldn't view opportunity to topple Belarus' current government citing defense (since Russia and IIRC Belarus has straight up threatened them early on), due to historical record showing what happens when far right trouble lands on Poland's doorstep. And Europe sure as shit isn't gonna be able to tell them no after the 1900s.

 

[Jaskalas]

This is a war of attrition, I don't think it ends without some involvement by Belorussia.

If Belarus enters the war, then NATO needs to invade Belarus and take it down completely.

 

[K1052]

If Belarus enters the war, then NATO needs to invade Belarus and take it down completely.

Belarus wouldn't last a week if they tried to invade Ukraine and the Russians are in no position to bail them out. The country is valuable as an air base not an active front in a land war where the Russian advantage in munitions, vehicles, and manpower is exhausted.